weatherwiz

Here's GFS at BDL. That's some nice thumping. Probably a good 1.5''/hr type stuff...if ratios verify maybe spitting near 2

I'm not even overly sold about secondary development...or at least anything of significance...maybe some weak circulation but the main low is so strong and not sure the structure of the energy or dynamics support it.

Unless the signal for strengthening dynamics goes away I would expect models to continue with a colder look. I think there is alot favoring dynamic cooling here and dynamic layer lifting.

That is the key word here! This also isn't a typical SWFE. I think at this stage the probability for such a scenario occurring is high enough to not discount it and even high enough to lean towards that direction.

Kinda doing so I think you can see how the strongest of the WAA sort of struggles to get in here...almost kinda weakens but it remains very strong to our SW which is pretty perfect actually. Also, I wonder if dynamic cooling may be a factor here...those dynamics in the llvls really crank up. 850's actually cool moving towards Saturday evening and the progression of the 0C line sorta of halts..

Certainly agree...will really depend on where the lift is. I'm trying to think back to some of the previous examples in which ratios ended up slightly higher in these set ups...then sort of go back and do a quick re-analysis. But yeah...it's all going to be tied into lift.

I'm trying to remember this but when it comes to advecting temperatures faster (speaking aloft here so in this case 850)...isn't a major factor how winds are crossing the isoheights? If winds are more perpendicular to isoheights that would actually slow down the progression of WAA...no matter how strong the winds are?

Bufkit was spitting out some pretty solid ratios to begin...I think sometimes bufkit can be a little off with them but it makes sense that ratios will be higher than typical. If we are able to get some great lift into the DGZ while ratios are maximized that's when a few may really be able to cash in. There is still plenty of room to go go in either direction here...either quickly transitioning or colder air locked in a bit more depending on secondary development.

My initial thoughts at least for northern CT are within the 4-7''/5-8'' range. Normally wouldn't do that for a SWFE but this one is a bit different. Seems like these have a tendency to overperform some when we have these pretty cold air masses in place out ahead of them. One reason for that being is I think snow ratios actually tend to be a bit higher than what is assumed or expected. To me the two keys are; 1) How "intense" the precipitation shield is as it's arriving...this I don't think should be a problem given how everything is favorable for large-scale lift. 2) Whether the WAA is intensifying...which seems to be the case on the models. That will only enhance precipitation and precipitation rates. I'm thinking snow rations 15:1 or so...maybe slightly higher?

I think by the time the warmer air arrives the majority of the precipitation is done. If there is anything that we've learned from these types of set-ups is we really don't zero-in on the most likely outcome until we're within 24-36 hours. While obviously there are some flags at hand one thing I really love to see is the expansion and strengthening of the WAA as the nose of the WAA arrives...dynamics look to favor large-scale lift with pretty strong convergence in the llvls. Snow levels should be pretty dang good too...at least to begin. Wouldn't be surprised to see 15-18:1.

Been a signal for a while now that eventually the Pacific was going to begin changing and we'll eventually get higher heights into the PNA region...and in an area which would lead to favorable downstream developments...couple this with the hints of ridging still in AK and we open up the flood gates for much colder air masses and a stormy pattern. Conditions for cyclogenesis would finally become more favorable much farther south and east instead of north and west. Still just a question of when these changes occur though...the signal is very strong but the ball is slowly starting to roll

I would think the dynamics argue for a stronger primary this weekend, however, that doesn't necessarily correlate to flooding of warmer air...still plenty of discrepancies regarding the exact track and that may make the ultimate difference. All in all this is looking like a rather dynamic and intense storm with a wide range of impacts. One of the more concerning issues may be how H7 evolves and tracks.

Both the euro and GFS have a 130+ knot MLJ streak rounding the base of that energy...that's pretty ridiculous. There's def going to be some p-type issues somewhere but whoever stays snow is going to get creamed. Too bad it isn't a slow mover, but someone could see 3-4 hours of 3-4''/hr rates.

I am like 95% certain I'll be going out to OK at the end of May for two weeks!!!! With the gas mileage I get I figured probably $90 each way for gas (maybe another $60 to $90 for chasing...although probably not nearly that much...just going to stay within a certain radius of where we go). Tolls I guess are MUCH less than I anticipated. Was looking up motels and they are dirt cheap.

It’s very unstable ahead of main line with excellent shear. As forcing increases farther East I would watch the next 1-2 hours for discrete development. It’s still relatively early in this event...biggest potential was never really until a bit later on. Outflow from this line could be a major focal point moving through these next several plus hours

18z sounding. This is pretty ridiculous.

It's shaping up to be a pretty big day tomorrow too from LA to the FL Panhandle.

Some interesting CC returns over Muskogee right around where the rotation is. Like right over the city

That's a nice looking couplet/inflow notch

RAP is projecting around 200 J of 3km CAPE around the DFW area later on with as much as 2000 J of MLCAPE. Anything discrete is quickly going to become tornadic

that supports an upgrade to high

agreed.

Yeah definitely couldn't rule out a farther expansion of that area...especially if you want to consider the damaging wind aspect...I sorta focused more on tornado probs but if I were to include winds it would have been much bigger

If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area

Much cleaner look for sure.