weatherwiz

How many states of emergencies do we usually get for snow

The gradient with this is going to be pretty significant. Where the banding traverses on Monday is going to produce some fairly hefty totals (like 10-16'' maybe?) but outside of the banding you'll probably see a huge drop off in totals. The mesoscale favored areas are going to cash in quite well. Not sure if we get into the higher-end of totals down here in CT...I can see perhaps extreme northern CT...perhaps to Kevin maybe getting into 8-12''. Probably update my map later this afternoon.

Took an early stab at a map for CT. Probably could have just did first call at work tomorrow but I'll be busy in the evening and most of Saturday (as usual). I am very intrigued by the WAA snow potential...some pretty solid lift and plenty of moisture. This only includes the WAA snow and not Monday's or phase two's output. Early thoughts are it's more rain or a mix here with major snows north

This should be a major snow event somewhere...just a matter of where. Potent 500mb energy like that and pretty favorable for cycolgenesis south of LI.

Actually that surge of WAA Sunday could be pretty decent...even here in CT. Could yield a several-hour period of some pretty heavy snow.

Where the secondary development occurs I think is more important than the overall track...also how quickly the intensification of the secondary occurs. As the main s/w moves southeast through the Ohio Valley to south of New England the whole system strengthens and a pretty strong southeasterly LLJ should flood in some mild air ahead of it. The key then is going to be having secondary development far enough south to where dynamic cooling will quickly cool the column...down to or pretty close to the CT coast. There should be a few bands of some pretty heavy snow...this setup is prime for at least one really solid band. Outside of this band (depending on the thermal profile) could be problematic with p-type and perhaps some subsidence. I kinda like Pike area...perhaps as far south as extreme northern CT for some decent snows (getting into warning criteria type stuff). I would think the baroclinic zone here is still going to be a bit farther north then it would be in another month which could hurt things for most of CT...also watching where H7 tracks b/c verbatim there could be some drier air as far north as central CT.

It's amazing how quickly you can lose those skills. Going through high school, I was pretty solid at math...at least in terms of algebra. I kick myself alot now b/c we were only required 3-years of math, but for my senior year I wanted to do more math so I took trig one semester and probability/statistics the last semester. Stupid me though didn't take it seriously and I just screwed around. Then I was out of school for 6+ years before I got back and all my algebra skills were gone. But you're 100% right...its needed to understand concepts and that's what I want to do. Statistics is highly useful and very interesting...if I at least don't re-take other math classes statistics is something I would not only do but take advanced stats classes.

HM on twitter has made mention a few times along with a few others...earthlight is another...can't think of the others off hand. It's highly fascinating, albeit challenging/frustrating. If we are able to discover what the true driver or what the drivers are I think the predictability will skyrocket. We do have an understanding of the drivers and what can drive patterns...but moreso of the "after the fact"...like if we were to look at 500 plot of the winter of 1975-1976 you could likely pretty easily determine what the drivers were...but it's gauging what the drivers will be moving forward which possess the greatest challenge...I mean there are times where it is obvious (a rather strong ENSO event, for example). What I'm just going to focus on for now is Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation and then try and branch off from that. Much o the research is conflicting as to whether its the stratosphere which drives the troposphere or vice versa...however, there are some interesting papers (just read one) which states otherwise and provides some overwhelming data.

I'm not all that afraid of really saying I have zero clue what I'm talking about...doesn't do me any good...or anyone else good pretending to know what you're talking about. There was a time when I was crazy interested in this sort of stuff and I thought going back to school would have helped significantly and I could have continued learning more...just the exact opposite happened. There seems to be alot of talk/interest in the time period...or shortly after for another major shift in the pattern which could result in another surge of cold into the U.S. The pattern relaxes for a bit, re-loads, and boom...a big blast of cold.

that's what that is?

Low sun angle

This is cool...found daily EP Flux animations on the ESRL page. Guess it won't animate here but that's a nice upward flux...reading about them too. Hopefully something like this will continue moving forward.

Not if the leaves are frozen to the ground

This is pretty cool to see. I also wonder if this bodes well moving forward. Seems like the theme since early fall as been for these positive height anomalies to strengthen between 180-120W over the Arctic region and that has been some big time warmth at 10 hPa which has developed. It does look like this will relax a bit but maybe watch that area around 50E...perhaps that's what is triggering some of the responses we're seeing near Thanksgiving?

could be some decent icing up north...wow. I want a damaging ice storm

Me too He's done incredible for himself...he is the definition of genius. His programming skills alone...I would kill to learn programming like that...or even to know how to come up with algorithms and indices...like he developed the MQI and used EOF's...zero clue how to even begin with that. If so I could probably do that construction of bi-weekly NAO/AO/PNA data from the daily numbers lol.

I've been thinking of re-taking math classes...starting from algebra and then working all the way back up to differential equations...anyone else ever consider this? I'm just not certain it's worth it though. I think math is one of those things that you either just get or you don't. But I'm extremely weak (and continue to get worse) with math and feel like I don't remember even basic algebra anymore b/c I just don't use it. Maybe do some online classes?

plate tectonics hard at work

This...I think that is a great point with strong validity. Obviously...here major...perhaps biggest driver here is the structure of the QBO. *cue in Sam Lillo with his amazing MQI data*

well if I get skunked so do you hahahahaha

Ahh...thank you! Easy enough to understand. Going back to your post as well...there does seem to be some room for a potential SSW towards month's end. I wonder if that's what models are hinting at and the response is the big blocking they indicate in the higher latitudes.

Are you familar with this website? This is an incredible website put together by Zachary Lawrence which has some excellent information for stratosphere monitoring. https://www.stratobserve.com/ Anyways, there are some products I' not sure how to interpret. For example, I know this displays the structur eof the SPV...I understand what potential temperature is...but what's like the overall significance? My guess is this is indicating a pretty strong SPV which is on the elongated side?

Steve...not so much. his location...yes

Why does it seem during these colder air masses the NAM likes to mix at night?