weatherwiz

Strongest would be just ahead of the line

Right even if it was watch unlikely

Yup potential is certainly there

Well in these things the winds are always just out ahead of the line. It becomes quite stable in the heavy rain

WOAH The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 255 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

New tornado watch into a large part of PA

Here's a good wind producer in WV

Storm report map is quite active already. could this end up being a serial derecho?

There was the February event in 2016 I think it was...widespread severe weather event. idk though...1-2 times a year bit not be that much of a stretch...although maybe dews in the 65-70 range maybe be...60-63 or so may not be

yup

Yup...I even think parts of northern New england had snow showers on the backside of this system. CAA winds with this system were crazy too if I remember.

I think we are on the extreme eastward extent of where this could perform. I would think this thing collapses pretty quickly...unless the dynamics can maintain it. With such poor low-level lapse rates though it might be tough to really draw down dome good winds...even with a limited inversion. The HRRR hasn't been as aggressive but still advertises widespread 40-50 knots gusts...still quite solid I suppose lol

There are certainly reasons to be on the skeptical side for us. For one I don't think we'll have the instability to work with like they will to our southwest. Now, these events aren't driven by instability, but when talking about the potential for higher-end type severe instability becomes a bit more important. With that said, there is enough instability present aloft to where if we can tap into that this will perform. The set-ups like this which do perform though typically have steeper lapse rates involved (assisting in momentum transport and of course instability). One thing to watch too though is does this line outrun the upper support or does it sort of move along with it. That's a pretty significant MLJ streak and that could certainly do wonders.

The NAMNEST (anyways) has widespread 50+ knot gusts ahead of the line. If that were to verify there would probably be a quite a bit of power outages. (although not sure I'd say widespread but I guess it depends on what is meant by widespread lol)

Dec 1, 2006

They are going to absolutely rip off the lakes overnight. That's a pretty steep lapse rate

That's what I'm a little confused about. This isn't a huge wind event outside of any convection (which still doesn't guarantee significant gusts but just increases likelihood). Did you see new MCD...95% chance of a WW...we don't even see those probs up this way with summer convective events

Yes, the left image is tornado probabilities and the right in damaging wind probabilities I wish I would have had the opportunity to have studied under Dr. Mel. that is very cool! November 16, 1989 there was a significant severe weather/tornado outbreak across southeast NY, NJ, and into mid-Atlantic

but at least that pans out

You're not wrong.

I wonder if the high wind warnings issued for BOX across northern CT are to cover for the winds with that line (based on the time frame within the warning). since this may not have thunder/lightning instead of issuing SVR's its covered via the HWW

The HRRR is pretty impressive. Generate an expansive corridor of ~500 J MLCAPE along with 100-150+ J 3km CAPE. Not to mention how warm/moist the llvl airmass is. When you see a 100+ 500mb jet streak punching into this type of environment trouble is going to happen

Severe weather possible tonight...a near moderate risk just to our southwest and people are focused on snow >200 hours out???

Holy tomato