weatherwiz

The NAM I feel has been pretty consistent with this...quite similar to the Euro. I was buying this pretty good which is why I went aggressive with my map yesterday. Been pretty impressied with the NAM soundings at BDL

I remember that day. I think too that was the final snow threat to track. Then one month later...tornado outbreak! Seems like past years where we get April snow events (measurable) we get a big severe wx event in May or June. I think the same thing happens this year. Pretty volatile pattern setting up to our west...should that continue and we relax this pattern over us there may be a window. Hopefully for an EML

Didn't some areas get snow around April 20, 2018? Or like April 15?

I just saw that...couldn't believe my eyes. Seems like there is some room for that to happen too...I'm assuming one thing we'd like to see is that northern stream dig a little deeper?

God Steve what a disaster for you yesterday

Dry air would have helped with stronger winds. There are times though where I kinda question the instability values spit out by the HRRR/RAP on mesoanalysis. I think there is a bit more way in the way of CIN across the region then what's being advertised given the amount of rainfall which moved through. I think too some of the better mid-level jet support was just a bit too far west

Think it's all done here. Stuff to the west looks like a dud. I actually thought it would have been better down in PA/NJ but guess not. I actually wonder if b/c shear was so strong any updrafts that tried to become established were just completely torn apart with not enough buoyancy. MLCAPE and 3km CAPE values were pretty decent but I guess shear just far outweighed buoyancy. Probably a situation where if the LLJ was a good 20-30 knots weaker we may have had a more widespread event (although without the higher end reports).

yeah wind has really diminished here as well. Guess all that rain really stabilized things

Lightning popping up on Long Island headed towards SE CT. Could enhance winds in SE CT

At least the riding machine is unscathed

Decent circulation between Greensboro and Henderson headed towards Dover, DE

SE NJ been getting some wild gusts. Looks like some more breaks trying to pop too just ahead of the line.

Well the strongest winds are about 1-3 hours away depending on where you live in the region. The strongest winds will likely occur just ahead of the line as it approaches...this is when mixing will be the strongest. Also the LLJ is maximized just south of the region now and core will overspread southern areas soon.

Looks like a few overshooting tops??

The RAP overlays ~500 m2s2 of effective helicity with 200 J of 3km CAPE...yup there definitely is potential for a strong tornado across NJ in a few hours

Wow...yikes

yeah same here. that is a good question

Watching this rather closely. Even looks like some thinning ahead of it

It will crank back up. Happened here too but it's going again. Wind probably took a nap

Some of the latest trends with the HRRR make me think we could see tornado watch actually include Fairfield, Litchfield, Hartford, and New Haven Counties!!!

Just had a roaring gust. 12:18 PM. Have to see what BDL reports for that but that had to be up around 50...maybe a few ticks higher

yeah it's really beginning to crank here. Can certainly hear some roaring at times and it's not the planes!

Watch this area of steeper 2-6km lapse rates. Should that expand into our area...should that happen power outages are going to sky rocket.

Clouds thinning ahead of that dry slot. I think there is a chance we could see the tornado watch expanded into Fairfield County CT

I haven't heard roaring like this since I watched Tiger King