weatherwiz

MTD departures...analyze how you'd like

I also wonder how the morning MCS potential influences things later in the day. Those are always a significant challenge...most times they completely kill potential, however, there are times they can enhance potential. 1) Will there be s/w subsidence behind it? As explained before, this can be good in that it clears out cloud debris quicker, however, it can also be bad b/c if that subsidence can't be overcome later, convection becomes suppressed. 2) MCSs can certainly leave behind residual boundaries and these can be a focal point for convection initiation and they can also locally enhance tornado potential...depending on how the storm motion is with respect to the boundary. 3)Timing of the MCS...this is actually rather huge...is it bright and early or late morning.

I would like to see stronger height falls. I do like though how models seem to track some steeper lapse rates into here...and to verify it's not a COD algorithm forecast soundings do exhibit a weak EML signature

Impressive DCAPE values...def going to see some localized wind damage today

oops I made my post in wrong thread. too lazy to delete and add here

This is a pretty scary environment ahead of that forecast convection Thursday:

WE DID IT!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOOOOOO What a special summer!!!!!!!

Special times we live in. Now we get to slowly blow down all the trees over the next several days

It's been stated for the past week there going going to be a major difference between northern New England and southern New England.

ahhh good call. Looking at mesoanalysis that seems to be the case. IIRC when looking at today's convective setup one thing I kinda noticed was it looked like the 850 front was slightly ahead of sfc front.

BDL record watch: Noon obs: 86°F 4°F from the record!!!!

Haven't seen much talk since Steve addressed this yesterday, but it could be rather interesting here with Laura. EDIT: which also ties into Saturday's sevee threat

BDL record watch: 11:00 AM obs: 83°F 7°F away!!!!!!!

unless convection occurs again they should

Excellent post!

Dry air aloft is definitely a concern...or moreso a lack of a deeper moisture rich llvl column. K-index only around 30 and 850 dews barely above +10C. Not sure if north is the place to be today...better chance probably closer to the coast where there may be some enhanced moisture convergence

BDL record check: 10:00 AM obs: 77 (+2 since last hour) 13°F to go. Would love to be about 85 next hour

It's very isolated so most will miss out but whoever gets hit should get whacked pretty good

BDL 75°F!!!!! 15°F more to go!!!! LEt'S DO ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

with Bruins playing...nope

Just noticed NWS has sunny skies tomorrow for BDL...looks like we could get mucked up with MCS cloud debris

Coverage today will be isolated but what does develop...should be some good wind producers too...along with some hail with strongest cores.

Finally...we've been waiting all summer for this but the potential exists on Thursday for a widespread...perhaps severe weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes all possible. This is a rather delicate setup, however, all the ingredients are there. as always with this type of potential there are numerous caveats and the extent of the potential probably won't be known until early Thursday morning. 1) Morning MCS - there likely will be an ongoing MCS to begin the day (riding along an instability gradient). This will certainly be one feature which complicates the forecast as we would ave to deal with cloud debris and likely subsidence behind the departing MCS. Subsidence can be good as it can help clear junk out faster, however, if it is too strong it can inhibit development later on. 2) Lack of EML/steep lapse rates. lapse rates aren't horrific, but these setups tend to have their severe weather potential (magnitude) vastly increased when there is an EML involved. With that said, combination of temperatures well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 in spots and dewpoints perhaps into the 70's with high mixing ratios should contribute to near moderate instability (again...cloud debris will be a player here too). 3) Rather strong shortwave approaching will be accompanied by anomalously strong mid-level flow with a west-to-northwest MLJ exceeding 50-60 knots with a low-level jet exceeding 30-35 knots. One caveat here is the BEST dynamics may push off the coast before we can crank again in the afternoon. This should be extremely fun to track the next few days with plenty to work out. It is extremely important to keep expectations in check b/c this is by far a lock and lots have to come together...but all the ingredients are there. Saturday has potential to be quite active as well.

Depending on the season south winds can be a killer b/c of marine taint but IMO I think this is more of a factor during the spring through late June. Once the waters warm I don't think it becomes as big of a factor. I've always wanted to do research on this but my thinking is that storms just tend to out run the better dynamics/upper-level support. The better dynamics/upper-level support seem to be up around the NYS/Canadian border or traverse NNE...so taking into account the curvature of the Earth, when storms just get past a certain point they just lose that assistance and fizzle...partly too b/c our instability here tends to be on the weaker side and predominately sfc parcel driven (days where we may have 2500 SBCAPE but barely 750 MLCAPE). the good SBCAPE helps get things to develop but for them to really mature the updrafts need additional assistance (good MLCAPE, dynamics, upper-level support)...and with that lacking convection struggle to get very deep.

yeah some of our biggest events come from; 1) NW flot aloft (mid-levels)...which also tend to match well with EML advection but not all NW flow events are associated with EML's 2) EML's 3) cold pools aloft but our severe wx events can be maximized with the combo of a NW flow/EML