Moving a bit away from the better upper support but this line is moving into an environment characterized by 2000-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...should ramp up a bit more locally and may even see additional development as frontal forcing moves closer
Not sure about timing but the end of the week could be pretty nasty...that's a pretty potent shortwave moving into what should be quite an unstable airmass
I am mildly curious for the end of the week. On the synoptic level it's not a bad look for severe potential here. There are some hints there could be some EML plumes which break off and make their way in our direction.
I think what we're looking at for next week is for dews to slowly drop through the day...starts off a bit humid and ends a bit humid but mixing with llvl dry air will mix them out. Wednesday and/or Thursday though could be quite humid ahead of the front.
A decent inverted-V look too on some soundings perhaps helping with any potential for isolated microbursts.
I do think though there may be a bit of a higher severe threat up in ME if enough destabilization can occur...even back into parts of northern VT/northern NH.
There should be enough instability to where any activity should at least work towards the coast. The timing though would certainly provide a solid light show.
maybe the greatest coverage is a bit north of us but with decent height falls, no cap, enough instability, and marginal shear we should see more than just widely scattered. Should be a nice light show anyways
Should see numerous t'storms tomorrow with torrential downpours and vivid lightning. A few storms may produce some damaging wind gusts which knock down some dead trees or limbs
The only good news about having cooler than average SST's is we don't have to have James alarm us that hurricanes will have excess fuel to thrive on as tropical systems ride into SNE late this summer. If the theme of cooler than average SST's continue into winter then we don't have to hear about how the SST's will yield stronger winter storms.