weatherwiz

Not a whole lot of W to E motion on the radar it appears.

Woah...this is crazy. The HRRR like stalls a band of heavy snow over CT for like 3-4 hours.

Expect that to be the theme through the morning

Was just about to post that. It’s off to the races now

Like to keep people on their toes

that's pretty close to the transition period too, no?

I've actually thought about that. But IDK...by doing various point-and-click soundings across the state during the overnight through morning it seems like dry air really starts to creep in perhaps as early as late evening...becomes quite apparent I think after 9z.

THE GFS is cute...still chucking out precip over CT despite the fact the column is about as dry as Kevin's scalp in February

I wonder if we'll really see the rain pick up this evening. The dynamics are no joke: PWATS over 1''...in December...nice

Much of the region gets into the stronger forcing but it just seems that everything favors eastern areas being able to utilize it. Actually...18z NAM 3K and even the RPM are hinting at an extremely thin band of very heavy snow which may develop and scrape SE CT, RI, and SE MA...it's just very progressive though...if something like that can develop and hang around a bit someone could easily get 3-4'' out that way.

Cod

FWIW there really isn't a whole heck of alot of of precip reports on the back edge of the precip going through TN Valley. Also, PIT did an 18z sounding. This is behind the front. that dry air means business

Looks like there is an unstable layer in there...but also looks like there is sinking motion within it. Here is 850 RH at 9z...all the good lift is just above this...I don't think we'll have issues generating snow but we will have problems getting it to the ground. This is why I think the radar may be a bit deceiving tomorrow...especially the higher up the beam is hitting

Looks like 6-hr precip on the NAM across CT during the time of the changeover is only about 0.1 to 0.25''...which can likely be cut back even more given the dry air...still a major problem on soundings all across CT

It will be about as moist as a Christmas ham

could be some decent icing somewhere

was too lazy to type it all out.

euro quite dry though at 850 with DAA (making it up ahahahaha) quickly arriving at 700

yeah that's a huge issue here too. It does seem though that they sort of become more stacked moving through the morning across RI/SE MA...this is virtually where any hope exists for accumulating snow. Hell at this juncture there's a chance someone in W CT doesn't even see a flake. Precip is going to shit down quickly.

If only

This is some of the strongest fronto I think I've seen on a forecast model: If you analyze further you can easily see as well why the best chance for snow would be on the east side as opposed to the west side.

Thank you. I think using gif option's where available will be the best way to go moving forward to really understand things and learn more. This displays it beautifully. Gotcha...this helps. Great explanation.

See...this is where I am a bit weak in analysis. Well...I get the southeast shift has little to do with the shallow edge of dry air at 850... but what about the differences in the s/w relate to a farther southeast shift in precip. This is what I struggle to deal with visually on models.

At least there is no virga when tracking severe

In a situation like this though, how important is that s/w? Too me, I don't think it is overly important (referring to that OV s/w)...that s/w lags the cold front quite a bit and it's this front (and associated frontal energy) as it pushes through which just yields a different atmospheric state (going from buoyant to subsident). Even if that s/w didn't really get absorbed and maybe the jet feature/speed was more favorable...would it do anything to help? If there was stronger moisture advection which could shoot in with some WAA as we lose the influence of the front...maybe it would be different?