weatherwiz

Next year may be my break to go out west. Unfortunately it may only be able to be for like 5 days but if my job becomes full time come December and I get one week vacation my first year then I’m golden!! But watch next year be worse than this out in the Plains

They crapped out before they could get to me. I haven’t gotten to enjoy a storm since May 15th

So does my friend lol.

Friend in Walpole, NH had hail and saw tree damage. Can’t get home until trees are cleared

I'm really excited to explore this idea and the goal is to publish a paper. My hope is with the findings will really show how much of an influence the jet may have (and when talking about the jet I'm referring to jet streaks/maxes and jet quadrants) and how perhaps it can really be a bigger driver than just the combination of cape and the presence of wind shear alone. But those are very interesting observations you have for sure. I think when you begin to notice things like that over time it shows there really is an influence and how these details can really provide a clue as to what to really expect.

Sweet...got my senior research topic proposal approved! Going to be exploring the significance of the upper-level jet and northeast convective events. I know that sounds like a broad topic (as my adviser stated), however, I have it all laid out and this is something I've wanted to explore for years. I've had this idea generated from the numerous events we have had where instability looks good and shear is decent but as activity would progresses into southern New England it would begin to weaken or produce less in the way of severe weather. My idea is that this is due to the fact that the convection is being too far removed from the better upper-level jet dynamics and such. I will also be making note of events which may have been influenced by an EML or steep lapse rates associated with cold pools. This is going to be exciting! I've known I've wanted to do this as my topic for years and was really hoping to have already started but putting forth the time for that ASAP

There is alot of focus on tomorrow morning (and for good reason obviously) but the afternoon and evening can't go without mention. Some indications are there could be a decent-sized area of rather steep low-level lapse rates early tomorrow afternoon. It's going to be quite breezy tomorrow but if we can muster up decent CAPE (like 1200-1500) which is very possible given those steep lapse rates and high llvl moisture/high theta-e it won't take much for some wet microbusts tomorrow. Also for the morning...pretty decent H5 jet max progged to arrive very early. If that can time with some convection things may be interesting somewhere. To point out...this is all low probability stuff but the potential is certainly there and it's worth noting

Lol. I’m parked in a parking lot but I hate typing on phones and I don’t bother to spell check.

Inside my cat and just had a really close strike...thunder was nearly instant. I’ve always wondered what would happen if your car got hitmky lightning while in it

I wish RadarScope had nROT product

Beginning to happen now! Just about done at work and there is some great views in North Branford so hopefully I can head out shortly.

yeah things might be transitioning more to flash flood threat with pockets of wind damage now? Wish the stronger 0-6km shear values would push east into this area but some nice discrete cells are popping up ahead of the line.

Hope the line doesn't start getting too far out ahead of the stronger 0-6km shear.

Since I don't have GR here how high up were the highest dbz's? With such a moist airmass just looking at sfc reflectivity is going to make things worse than they are. sfc reflectivities will be quite high just b/c of the torrential downpours.

the more the better.

Look at the higher theta-e values kicking in. I wonder if we can get dews to pool to about 75-77 in some spots?

NAM Nest and 3km NAM want to keep llvl flow backed but I think the flow is a little too weak to worry about any TOR potential.

Nevermind working now

Would anyone mind posting the observed 12z soundings for Albany and OKX? Not loading on my phone for some reason. Although I’ll be headed to work soon. I might even be able to chase today depending on how long this meeting goes and I get my forecasts done!!!

Latest hi-res is really interesting

Quite the difference between the NAM and NAM Nest. The later has decent (for our standards) mid-level lapse rates but gets much more heating and as a result has very steep low-level lapse rates along with backed llvl flow. Moderate cape too and great shear. Would suggest a decent wind damage event

Pretty impressed by the 12z guidance on the look of the squall line. i still think it ends up fizzling as it propagates down into SNE but the slight risk area looks good for a few microbursts. Despite the decent CAPE/low-level moisture down this way I think the weakening upper-level dynamics hurt...also...I wonder if a more westerly sfc wind perhaps knocks the potential down a bit down this way? But we'll see what happens and whether the mid/upper level dynamics lacking become a player. This is the exact topic I am doing for senior research and I gotta get this going ASAP.

NNE definitely has a shot at something more interesting than down this way. NNE also closer to the better jet dynamics at 500. Seems like we sort of crap out the dynamics down this way as the afternoon progresses. Strongest height falls also look to occur across NNE. Maybe SE NH or SW ME could be in a good spot.

it's a phrase. there'll be pockets of wind damage...maybe even an isolated area of widespread damage if there happens to be a microburst. Most of the downed trees will probably be rotted trees that Bambi pissed on