weatherwiz

chickens?

Beginning of severe wx season!

The models too have struggled significantly with the whole southern stream system and potential impacts across the south. Heck, there was a good part of last week where EPS were even spitting out a large swath of like 4-8'' of rain across the TN Valley with some significant convection...boy has that changed. could certainly see a situation where the southern energy ends up a bit weaker...which would increase the likelihood of more involvement with the northern stream?

In about 12-13 days the GFS will start poking into April so we're essentially only 12-13 days away from being 0 full months away from May in the model world.

Only thing missing is a circled contour in NE MA

Only one more full month to go until we hit May...WOW. It's a comin'!!!!!!

It would be fun to get the end of the week to pan out. Seems like a much different scenario than what we've been dealing with all winter so maybe that is some good news. I also think we've had several decent events which preceded a warmer pattern, no?

The northern stream is no joke end of week...nice. Wouldn't mind a nice little crusher then bounce back with 50's days later.

Well then.

Seems like if that northern stream energy can interact in time with the southern stream energy as it's departing that would open the door for something...particularly NNE Is this how some of those December event's worked out?

I totally agree with this...especially with your first sentence. Part of what's happened too is the winter has just been so bad everyone's emotions are running high and things get a bit chaotic in terms of posting...it's always been that way. Once we usually get a serious threat or are within a favorable regime the tone becomes much different. I have been quite tongue-in-cheek with posting (which is not good) but not sure why really. In all honesty I wouldn't discount any more chances for snow and like you said...you don't have to be in a long-term favorable pattern for snow. All you need is a brief stint where the pattern is favorable and hope something works out. Sure it hasn't this winter but even though we're moving towards the spring perhaps some of the changes that occur with wavelengths and responses could end up favoring us. We just need something good to pop and change the mood here

I thought my response was pretty good! Did take a couple minutes though to construct it

When people understand that weather actually happens outside of their backyard and just b/c their house didn't get a t'storm or that they didn't see severe wx doesn't mean an event or a forecast was a "bust".

If anything this was good practice for the season. Gotta shake off the forecasting rust.

Ok, this is a more fair assessment. but to say thinking along a certain way is being level headed is just not correct. Thinking that period could be above-average in terms of temperatures is just as level headed as thinking it could be cooler with a chance for some snow. Are there signals pointing more towards one direction than the other...sure but it's not like those signals are overly strong and a few minor adjustments can result in a pattern that is colder or one that is much warmer

This is where i strongly disagree. In fact, I could argue it's the opposite of level minded. When dealing with medium and long-range you can always find something and make a case for whatever it is you're trying to state. There have obviously been two camps these past two months and one of those camps have just been flat out wrong...but to ensure they can't be wrong they just add buffer sentences and statements which just say "but that doesn't mean it will happen" "it may not play out that way" etc. Every single time those who have posted against those EPS pattern signal changes they've been ridiculed.

I'm just amazed at the AO this winter. 1) How quickly the AO just jumped into positive territory and never looked back 2) How many times it peaked at +4SD 3) For this entire month each drop in the AO was less impressive then the previous drop. This stretch will end that. But that forecast drop in a few weeks looks close to the period Will is talking about too .

I wonder if it will go below the dip from a few weeks ago. But it does look like the entire structure of the AO is beginning to break down (perhaps more related to the transition towards spring?). I know the AO loses correlation as we move through the spring, but should we continue seeing such high anomalies it will continue holding at least some weight on the pattern.

nice. Do you know what the daily values where?

I had this same exact thought when looking at the end of next week. That's a pretty decent system/front looking to move through late week but our temperatures go from quite a bit above-average to right around average or even a few ticks above

Looks like a split flow wants to try and develop around that time-range...actually even looks tad omega block-ish like too. At least with this there wouldn't be a SE ridge to deal with. Shift the ridge axis a bit west and that could favor something to really amplify should something dig into the OV

Warm Kevin is my favorite. I used to like waking up in the morning and running to my computer to reads Kevin warm posts during the warm season...was the best part of the day. I would do that before anything else and then I would feel all warm and fuzzy inside and walk around the rest of the day with a big smile on my face.

Jesus...that's beyond pathetic.

ehhh it's all in good fun and jabbing. I kinda jumped the gun on this...overlooked (or well didn't look) a few things which if I had I probably wouldn't have made this thread. I focused too much on dynamics/lapse rates and didn't even bother to look at theta-e/llvl moisture. but it's also the tone of things...I like sticking my head out and trying to make actual forecasts/calls and get away from the notion of "if this happens then this will result". I notice that quite a bit on twitter and I think those posts put the wrong ideas in peoples head. It's not the person's fault who is putting forth the information though...it's how the information is being perceived. Even the past month with all these "signals" on the EPS about changes...were those changes really of any merit? When you take into account the structure hemispheric pattern that has been place I don't think any of them ever did. The biggest thing (in my mind was) a lack of a mechanism to disrupt this pattern/circulation to make such changes go through.

The one a few weekends back where places up north were like -20 to -30. IDK...I find that "impressive",,,at least in this winter