weatherwiz

Looks like storm mode may initially be discrete across eastern NY then forming into segments. Maybe some QLCS’ tomorrow?

Could be close. Models show activity moving through around that time

Shear does increase late afternoon into the early overnight. Nice little ULJ too

yeah when I saw that yesterday morning I was quite impressed. This is 6z NAM for Waterbury, CT Friday evening

NAM is very interesting for Friday.

wow didn't realize things were popping up already!

Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape.

Watch for several hailers tomorrow. Maybe even a few cells producing severe hail (1-1.50''). Sort of shocked we aren't in at least a marginal. But I think tomorrow is a bit active

there is some room for a strong or severe thunderstorm overnight and through tomorrow afternoon right around where the warm front gets...might stay offshore but some models bring it into southern CT. Something to watch b/c instability will be there just south of the front with some decent shear.

This can sort of go in hand with what Scott is saying but alot of the problem too is upper-level support...or in this case lack of. With the higher heights out that way it's unlikely you'll get into the better upper support...or it will be tough for the upper-level support to progress east. IMO, the marine layer gets used a little bit too loosely...especially this time of year. When it comes to convection I think upper-level support plays a substantial role in the evolution and degree of sustainability. This is what I am doing for my senior research...wich I have only scrapped the surface at starting

I’ve beeb trying to get that book for years but the $$$$ is crazy

Had a nice lightning show driving from Newtown to Fairfield

no hail reports so far

true

Pretty nice cell in south-central ME

ehhh yeah that could be a bit tough to do...even if so I would think melting would be a bit of an issue. Maybe we can reach for 1.25''

I bet there are a few really nice supercells way up in ME today. Wouldn't even be surprised to see something producing near golf ball hail today (even though some ingredients are lacking). Unfortunately it will probably be in the boonies. Hopefully the deer, elk, and moose got their training this year

I hope we get one or two more giant severe weather events before summer ends..and classes start. I haven't even chased out of state this year (barely even chased in state) for the first time since 2007. Usually end up going to NY, PA, MA, VT, or NH. Very disappointing. We need a labor day 98 repeat

Sunday could be a little fun depending on where the boundary sets up. Wind fields suck and mid-level lapse rates aren't terrible.

ohhh perfect!!! I had found some papers but this one is exactly what I'm looking for. Thanks!!

@OceanStWx Do you happen to know what the equation/the methodology (or where to find it) behind the calculation of the 12hr/24hr severe weather probabilities from the SPC SREF?

that's gotta be some of the lowest 0-6km shear I've ever seen lol

Here is a point-and click from western CT from the 12z NAM NEST: Here is from one central-ish ME