weatherwiz

The immediate shoreline is tough...with it still being early in the season it doesn't take much of a easterly component to the wind to bump sfc temps just above freezing. I think they may see some...but probably generally under .10''.

This storm is going to be super exciting. We get to track a tornado outbreak in the south today and then quickly shift gears and watch us get snow and ice.

Updated forecast WOAH at the SPC outlook “environment will support risk for multiple significant tornadoes”

I think you may have mentioned that could be the focal zone the other day...pretty solid call. Now it's just a matter of how much ZR we're talking about.

Holy smokes

yeah the RGEM has me pretty damn concerned. that's a pretty decent signal across central CT.

I love the famous "I have 4-wheel drive I'll be fine" line (it's ice not snow...unless your tires have custom made ice skates...good luck)

I typically bump up the expected changeover by an hour or two from what models indicate. Yeah I'm not sure if this will be a big icing event...but we may straddle the line between issues and a bit more in the way of major issues (major issues being scattered power outages and some tree damage)

With this...that makes the snowfall forecast just as important. If we get 3-4'' of snow followed by ice it will further enhance potential for some bigger issues.

That's certainly in my mind...though I am going to place that closer to the border...mlvls always seem to warm rather quick. I am a little concerned b/c if we see ice accretion pushing .4'' that's sticking the head right into the start of some trouble territory.

I don't like how the NAM only has central/northern CT only in the upper 20's to around 30 for much of tomorrow. Also props to @JGNYK03 for pointing out the discrepancy with my initial ice forecast map from Saturday...definitely going to be a much larger (and more uniform) even close down to the coast. Going to correct that with an update later this morning...along with adding a 4-6'' stripe along the CT/MA border.

Looks like it will go sick with the thump....great sign

Has anyone had the chance to see how much longer after the model initiation start time does the HRRv4 actually initialize? 12z a no go yet on cod

there could be some nasty snow squalls Wednesday.

This deserve thread of the year decade

I was getting a little nervous yesterday b/c it was looking like the core of the WAA was actually going to weaken prior to arriving into SNE...but the latest signals are a bit impressive. I am a bit nervous though down this way...there is some pretty strong lift overhead after the warmth aloft has moved through...we could have a period of some moderate-to-heavy ZR

It's a pretty good sign to see the front end lift here starting to emerge a bit more strongly on the models. You can actually see the isobars on the MSLP charts on the NAM really sort of tighten up and cluster closer together on the NAM...pretty good sign for heavier precip/lift

I took the 45 days of winter (or however it was phrased) as more of a tongue-in-cheek comment than in actual seriousness. The bolded is pretty funny...and probably spot on But trolling or whatever aside...the premise of the thoughts aren't very unreasonable. I don't have a problem with Dr. Dews or his posting style (everyone has their own) and not saying I endorsed anything...just that it isn't totally unreasonable given the uncertainties for the second half of this month.

Just over the border into MA...pretty good looking. Looks like some nice lift around the DGZ as well. Maybe 1.5''/Hr?

In all fairness Dr. Dews isn't completely off here. Obviously things can change moving into January and February (as we've seen in the past). Yes it isn't officially winter yet and yes we have been active in the storms department with many places above-average in snowfall...but we've also had our share of cutters and warm events. The signals moving through the remainder of the month and to at least start January are incredibly mixed and can go either way. The PAC is quite volatile and is going to remain that way for some time. As long as this is the case, all possibilities from one side of the spectrum to the other are always going to be at play. We've been lucky to cash in on the potential's we have had, however, that doesn't mean that will continue to be the theme. As great as it is to have "favorable patterns" for snow/winter events...it doesn't always guarantee them. With our region we can easily have a great pattern and miss out...we can have an awful pattern but if the cards align perfectly we can cash in on that brief opportunity. When you see models flip-flop like they have for the end of the month...that should be a huge flag and you can say all you want, analyze all you want, but until some sort of signal remains consistent...there is just no way of knowing which side will win.

I've never done so for winter...but it's something I want to do. I really thought when I went back to school I could do a ton more with studying/research and the exact opposite happened...like I don't really think I have gained any additional (or very little) knowledge in winter wx or severe wx forecasting in the past 6-7 years. I'm sure some of the better schools go into some depth/detail on what you mentioned in the bold but not where I went...overall the program is pretty bad. Outside of the equations and atmospheric physics/chemistry (which is tremendous to know and understand and can be a great value when applied to understanding forecast models) I learned absolutely ZERO about forecasting while in school...absolutely nothing. If I never found this board back in 2007 and just went to school I would have little to no knowledge of how to forecast...outside of rip and reading MOS and just looking at the basics on models. In terms of forecast soundings we didn't do much with them...except look at a few examples from some random weather events in the 90's and just go over how to differentiate between Precip-types. I honestly get really pissed when I think about things b/c of how little I learned over the past 6-7 years. Between school and working 2-3 jobs I had zero time to do much in my own time.

so that's where the issues stemmed in the past? It had to do with poor handling/simulation of convection? Ok...that makes plenty of sense then. I just wasn't sure if there were other aspects involved.

One thing I've never truly understood is how convection plays a role in how precipitation evolves. From what I've always gathered if there is a ton of convection in the south that can rob moisture and end up screwing us? (Maybe they have a MetEd module on this process...or some papers). Anyways, is that possible here? It seems pretty ripe in the south for convection today. This 12z sounding at LCH is pretty amazing for mid-December. Should be right on the cusp of where convective initiation occurs.

Thanks for the reply! I think it was after the May high risk issuance that didn't really pan out that I encountered some information on how EML origins from Mexico...couldn't remember what it was but the aerosols ring a bell. I will say...the hypothesis though is quite interesting. However, I think one of the bigger concerns in reading was smoke from wildfires. The aerosols aspect is very interesting though!

I was trying to time that strongest lift with the arrival of the heavier precip...it did seem to somewhat match. But I do think we'll be dealing with some virga initially but if the intensities pan out hopefully it's brief. Coolwx is certainly much more efficient then loading up bufkit profiles. A pretty underrated site as well for data. The ice aspect is definitely a tad concerning...though I still think we will fall sort of a significant icing event but it will be bad enough to impact travel. But in terms of the school cancellation stuff...tomorrow isn't really about snow...it's more the ice aspect. But I remember it being nearly impossible for West Hartford to cancel school growing up...every other surrounding school would be closed and we would be open or delayed. Snow totals had to be like 6-8"+ for us to have school cancelled...with the majority still falling during the early morning.