weatherwiz

Found it... NOAA data center is having problems

Where at? I've checked Cod, tropicalridbits, and pivotal and there is no 12z runs and 6z barely finished. Trying to find out if there are any issues

Are computer models not running today?

This is a fantastic post...and yes, conditioning is a much more accurate word to use. when I was at school and winter threats came up the first thing some of the students would bring up in class, "what do the snow maps show?" Nobody cared about anything else. The models are proclaimed to be horrendous, brutal, garbage, blah, blah, blah, when the snow maps got it wrong in their backyard...the algorithms which go into these snow maps are pretty piss poor and too basic for something that is beyond basic and quite complicated.

Exactly. Too much emphasis is being placed on products which really shouldn't have that much weight placed on them. Each product is just a tool/piece of guidance. I can see how easy it is to just look at a map and run with it...but you're selling yourself short and if you're going to communicate that one map you're just going to pass along the wrong idea and all credibility becomes shot.

I disagree with this. Perhaps the stats will show this (although from bits and pieces that sometimes get tossed around on Twitter I think overall they haven't become worse). IMO, the biggest issue is laziness...there seems to be very little focus on meteorology anymore...it's all about rip and reading, focusing on a specific weather chart (whether it be a snow map, SLP, QPF) and running away with it. Social media I think is the biggest blame here...it's easy to post a model snowfall map showing 20-30'' of snow and then all of a sudden its retweeted thousands of times.

That's quite the cold front moving through Sunday. Looks like it acquires moisture from the Lakes..maybe snow squalls out ahead of it.

Next week has an intriguing look. Should get some pieces to work with at least...the airmass is going to be there. Hopefully something gives

Sunday looks intriguing. That's a pretty damn significant shortwave trough moving in...actually not so shortwave. But behind it the tropopause drops below 500mb. Could see some major upslope snows across NNE Sunday.

Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow

Yeah upslope could be pretty epic on some spots. What could be fun with this is watching the freezing level with dual-pol...it might completely crash going from NW to SE as that front moves through. Still gotta watch out for the NW Hills of CT...wouldn't give up on them too soon. Especially Norfolk lol

If the NAM is correct it is going to rip across northern New England. There would be a swath of some pretty excellent upward vertical motion and right where the column is supportive for snow too.

I was thinking more along the lines of the elevation component here. Either way...guess this just isn't trending in the right direction. Time to move ahead to next week...which might have some legs...maybe broken but with that pool of cold air around it's worth watching

The RPM has seemed to handle the winter storms they've had west the past few months pretty well. That doesn't look all far-fetched. I could see many ending as a burst of some snow coating things up. All that cold has to do is arrive a tick earlier.

Like in forecast discussions or twitter. Only time I see it posted on social media it’s usually done so with a snow map lol

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this model referenced. There too many forecast models out there. Maybe resources should be all pooled together and go with a few models instead of 900 different types.

WTF is the ICON? ive seen it floated out there the last few years but only in winter...never summer. is it just another model that gets used in winter b/c it has snow maps?

There are people on twitter who have a relationship with the kuchera method and snow maps and it’s extremely disturbing. Garbage

I really wish they would be eliminated. The code which is utilized to run them should be destroyed and the world needs to be brainwashed by the men in black pen to believe they never existed.

Complete night/day between the GFS and NAM...on just about everything. Although what is interesting to note is it looks like on both the GFS/NAM the most favorable location for ulvl divergence is across New England...this would certainly favor a scenario like the GFS I suppose.

This is great! Excellent information

I guess as long as it remains weak and elongated that would be a good thing? That thing may get shred to pieces if this pattern keeps up lol

That's a good point. Hopefully that doesn't happen...sort of can't be discounted either. At 84-hours you have a near 90 knot MLJ streak just getting ready to round the base of the trough...so amplification is certainly going to be occurring...just a matter of how strong.

The 12z run looks to slowly delay the push of colder air a bit...which obviously could impact the onset of things. It is nice to see a more amped northern stream though. Doesn't look like any significant changes with southern stream energy.

The SPV does look to become weakened and sort of elongated moving towards mid-month. Not surprised really with these crazy strong Rossby Waves which have been occurring.