weatherwiz

Best Taylor Swift song and one of the greatest songs of all time

eliminating the cuteness beginning today! When did you move to Milford? I'm actually aiming to move down there sometime in the spring. Can't wait...only a 20-minute commute to work as opposed to an hour

I am going to make some slight adjustments such as bringing the 3-6'' farther south and just put a 1-3'' along immediate shoreline

It was a crazy year in terms of weather for sure...Also had the June 1 severe weather outbreak But Boxing Day...dark memory for me...I was in a horrific spot. I was pissed.

Avatar should give a clue

Touche

I hope alex cora steals your snow

I think the cobb ratio is something that is more relevant to the mid-west than here...uses a higher avg ratio or something

Yeah I should start doing that more...1-3'' going into the 3-6'' range would be more than ideal here. I don't get why I like to get too cute with it. I think it's more to illustrate gradients and such perhaps. But I'm going to start canning this...unless of course it was a situation which really warranted it.

maybe a product of QPF...gotta keep in mind those things are using a baseline of 10:1 ratios...and ratios here I'm pretty certain will exceed 10:1. As much as i hate the snowfall maps when I saw they were spitting out 2-3'' on 10:1 ratios I felt pretty good about going 3-6'' as I felt ratios may be more 13:1 to 15:1

At this time don't see any need to make adjustments from this. Did receive a comment yesterday that I am probably too cute with southern CT there...which I am. Sometimes I like to be cute though. I always just feel though coastal CT somehow always finds a way to flip in these setups. Could have just moved the 3-6'' line farther south and then have a 1-3'' shading

20:1 don't think is happening but I think 15:1 is doable

I think what's going on regarding seasonal snow totals and the NAO is as the data set becomes larger the correlation begins to weaken and the correlation to -NAO and snow may not be what is was thought the past few decades...the same goes with ENSO phase. Over the past decade or so we're learning a specific phase doesn't necessarily hold a correlation...I remember even in the mid-to-late 2000's the notion was that a weak La Nina meant big snows in New England...not necessarily the case. It's more about structure, placement, and short-scale changes within the oscillations. For example, you can have an overall long-term pattern which sucks...but within that overall pattern regime you can have periods where that relaxes and cards align and you can get slammed. A lot of these connections are also established based on correlations to "major" or "significant" events...which leaves out alot of other data or samples. This is why I hate how alot of indices are measured by a monthly...bi-monthly...or whatever average...this doesn't truly capture those very short-lived abrupt flips and it's those periods which are going to produce some type of weather.

b/c it's a ridiculous method designed to enhance the wet dreams of weenies. yeah let's multiply a snowfall ratio by model QPF and call it a snow forecast....woohoooooo

GFS for BDL. That's a pretty good period of moderate-to-heavy snow for sure

slant sticking?

It's the equivalent to spring training or training camp...build up the mindset towards severe and and discussing past events (this is the practice) to fine tune skills before the season starts

Probably soon time to start the countdown to May 1st thread...and this year's is extra special since I'm 95% confident in going to OK!!!!!!!!! This is what I'm thinking for CT. 3-4'' for most

Was pleasantly surprised when I walked out the door this morning to see a coating of snow on the grass and my car!

This always becomes a big question in these setups. We've seen times before where models are aggressive with this notion only to back off in the final 24-36 hours. We've also seen times where they become more impressive as we get closer. Part of me feels the degree of lift is being underplayed. I know we're far removed from the main low and the shortwave doesn't look very favorable, however, there are ways to compensate for that. If dynamic cooling is occurring (which still seems to be the case) that would indicate air that is rising rather rapidly. In this case we see a temperature response at 850/925 of cooling during the day Saturday...meanwhile in the mid-levels the delta T's are not as impressive...this would indicate there should be increasing frontogenesis over our area...I would think. My wager is we see models ramp up a bit with lift as we get closer.

There is probably very little room to get much more than 6 or 7'' unless something crazy happens and mlvl lift is much stronger. One thing I also kinda like is I don't think the precip shield will be all blotchy...it should be a nice consolidated area of precip.

I might go with 3-6'' across the northern half of CT...this isn't a terrible look. At least you're getting the best lift into the DGZ. I know there is the suspicion of using snow rations far out but I still think snow ratios are going to be pretty solid...certainly better than the usual 8:1 to 10:1 and I think that needs to be really taken into account here with potential totals...if the ratios were going to be poop..1-3'' to 2-4'' I would certainly see. The big key is going to be a very small window when we get some pretty solid lift...it's this small window where the snow ratios are going to be maximized and we'll see snowfall rates around 1.5''/HR. Maybe this doesn't occur over a widespread area but there will be some localized areas which perform well.

The signal has been there for a while and the models are starting to handle it along with its implications But this isn’t a typical SWFE. I want to start building up a database of events so only have memory to go by but when you look or think back at previous SWFE’s which have over performed one glaring thing in common was how cold the air mass is ahead of it. it’s not like we’re toasting the mid levels here...it’s pretty damn cold when the best forcing/precip arrive. The question is just do we have enough lift into the DGZ to maximize snow ratios...that’s the only question here...nothing thermal profile related. I don’t have my laptop fired up to see what 18z GFS Bufkit shows but 12z Bufkit at BDL had decent lift into the SGZ. if that verifies we get a 3-HR period of 1.5-2”/HR rates or so. The majority of this snow will be fluff

And we will continue with the colder trend.

The most important thing to take from the 18z NAM/GFS is that they continue with the theme of dynamic cooling. The biggest key is if we can maximize ratios...if we do I think wi widespread swath of 4-7” is very likely away from the immediate coast.