Looks like one of the biggest wild cards with this is the handling of the energy diving through the Plains and moving through the Ohio Valley. But just looking at the ulvl's (and on all models) it seems pretty prime for pretty significant cyclogenesis ...I guess it's just a matter of where this happens but I would wager at least parts of interior New England are going to get hit good and at least the NW Hills of CT.
The NAM is a pretty solid look. Would be a fast but pretty significant thump of heavy, wet snow. I can't get a hold of how cold it is aloft. There is going to be one helluva band
The Berks could really get nailed with this. Let's say even if the 18z Euro panned out...I think the Euro would get crushed. There would be a pretty significant band as frontogenesis would probably be off the charts.
When the pattern flips...we're getting a big severe threat. That I promise. The configuration is going to be prime for it...we either will see EML advection or a NW flow type setup...though often times NW flow does come with steeper lapse rates though not precisely associated with an EML
This is insane to say but it's not like we don't have the llvl airmass needed in place ahead of the storm b/c we kinda do...850's are quite cold for May and only get colder as dynamic cooling really takes over...and this then yields cooling at 925.
epic for May standards I meant lol...would be several inches of heavy, wet snow in the hardest hit areas. Luckily we're not fully leaved but this would def lead to widespread power outages.
I picture it now
"Severe snow squall warning has been issued until [ ]. In addition to extremely heavy snow leading to near-zero visibility, large hail up to the size of quarters is possible along with damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph".