weatherwiz

Not as impressed down this way anymore. I think we'll see some storms but a bit of dry air above 850 and just meh wind fields. Ample CAPE though and some inverted-v looks...maybe we can muster up a few stronger storms. we'll see. Tomorrow night NAM NEST has a decent line move through here though

good call on the shear too for up your way...30-40 knots of bulk shear and 0-6km shear. Looks good up your way for some nasty stuff. May even have to watch any discrete storms too.

The 18z NAM NEST sounding for Waterbury at 8:00 isn't bad looking. Just over 1700 Cape with 32 m/s of shear

Nice sounding from western CT from 18z NAM Nest. too bad shear is meh...not a huge fan of that tiny isothermal-ish layer either...though wondering if that is true...makes the llvl lapse rates weaker a bit

What algorithm does bufkit use for it's precipitation generation? I was looking at IXD (Olathe, KS) and NAM bufkit was showing heavy rain like 10:00 PM and completely saturated profile. Looks to me like the best chance for anything was during the morning and then the front moves through and didn't see much for lift overnight. NWS though did have 10% chance for overnight but bufkit was going aggressive. MOS too did have some decent probs I guess. I haven't really used MOS heavily enough to know how good it is with those precip/thunder outputs.

that model seems to want to overdo the LLJ at times...or quite a few times. Also sometimes it seems like it goes a bit more aggressive with 700-500 lapse rates

I'm thinking the extreme western part of the state may be able to get in on some action although hi-res stuff weakens things rather quickly. I'll be in Danbury tomorrow so hopefully something happens. Seems like they have had about 20 thunderstorms this summer.

Even if we had some convective debris I would assume it's high level clouds...which at meant at worst means most areas shave a few degrees off their highs. With dewpoints into the lower 70's that won't mean all that much. Models still spitting out about 1500 MLCape. SPC SREF even showing 90=% probs for MLCape to exceed 30% and even some 30% probs for exceeding 2000

yeah I think the SPC is downplaying tomorrow. They seem to think there are uncertainties with the degree of destabilization but I think we'll have plenty of instability. Low-level lapse rates too not very far from super-adiabatic which should help with wind gusts despite the shear...shear looked a bit better a few days ago I thought. Nice inverted-v look too on soundings

Tropical Tidbits has really become a great site...especially for those cross sections. Coolwx is awesome too...especially for checking SGZ layer and omega within the zone. I still really love cod...excellent website and they're point-and-click soundings are top of the line. I wish tidbits had half the parameters that cod has but they have a few cool parameters too that cod doesn't have...like MLCAPE and wind crossovers.

yeah SimuAwips is not free anymore. I actually visited it last week for the first time in many years. I was going to try and see if our school could get it (not that I would be there to use it probably) but if its cost base its not happening. My works to get the school to get Max Software from the Weather company went unsuccessful...even though everyone I talked to wanted it..of course the answer was "there is no money". I really love the stuff you can do with AWIPS...there are free sites where you can do similar stuff? If not, I would look into a subscription.

Is AWIPS II free?

thanks!

Watch this fall be incredibly active and OK ends up blowing us away when they finish the year at 76 lol. New England right now is the New York Mets of April. Also, do you know a website or source which tracks confirmed tornadoes (up to date)? For example, if I wanted to see the number of confirmed tornadoes so far this year back state and ranking, etc.

Late Tuesday could be quite interesting. Quite unstable through the night with good shear and s/w moving through with the front. Good track of the s/w too.

Does anyone know how to stop a web page from auto-refreshing? The SPC site does it constantly and it's a bit annoying. Trying to write down dates from the Storm Events page and every couple minutes it refreshes and I have to input all the information again.

It was 4. The last confirmed one was the waterspout in Barkhansted but b/c the land was landlocked it was rated an EF U

Lol

Tornado in Woodstock. 6th for CT this year

Think we can get a few isolated cells to pop with some heating. Can’t rule out something strong or severe but things should be fairly isolated

Yeah it was weak. Really strengthened incentive it got into NE CT

Warning out. Been watching that for a bit. Really tightened

Yeah looks more like maybe RI and SE MA may have the best shot at anything

Does anyone here have Bufkit and wouldn’t mind posting a screen shot of hodograph with the CAPE values from whatever the latest HRRR run is for BDL at 12z tomorrow? Not at a computer for a while. Would be much apprecciated!

Be safe!