weatherwiz

That jet streak though is pretty damn impressive..180+ knots. Imagine those dynamics involved in a different type of set-up lol. Don't really see a jet streak that intense just to our west too often...usually moreso just to our north and east.

Nope. Hell...there isn't even any lift in the DZG. Something is obviously off with the precip algorithm on the GFS...it just loves to overdo QPF behind Arctic fronts.

hoping the fog won't be an issue at PWM tonight.

Look at the subsidence too below the DGZ haha

Took like 3 seconds to make...I like lol

Just for fun

My forecast for CT is up to a coating of snow...with a coating to an inch in the northeast hills. Pros: Very strong mid-level lift/forcing enhanced by a potent 100+ MLJ streak moving through the region and a 150+ knot ULJ putting us in RFQ. Narrow ribbon of impressive frontogenesis Sufficient RH with respect to ice in the SGZ Cons: Alarmingly low values of relatively humidity in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere with pockets of dry air throughout the column Still under the presence of CAA Strong subsidence within the lowest 10,000 feet of the atmosphere As front moves through it begins to do so rather progressively All in all...dynamics are great to have, but dynamics alone aren't going to get the job done or get a job done. While we have the forcing/lift to generate the production of snow the degree of dry air will quickly eat anything that falls. The result...snow showers for many but based on timing it will likely lead to a slick AM commute with delays.

I think flash freezes are overrated here...I don't think we really get many true flash freezes...(at least I don't count a few puddles icing up as a flash freeze...or a few slick spots)

I usually wait until winter is really sucking. then once i fire it up winters comes with a vengeance. Just remember though it's a copyrighted thread so if anyone else were to ever start it without my consent it must be deleted.

You're missing out

the algorithm was changed to yield precip with RH values >1% so the snow maps can still yield an output

He has great writing skills/ability. You add that to his wealth of knowledge and his method of presentation...and it creates a must read label for anyone interested in weather.

I would watch coastal RI/SE MA this evening for the possibility of convection

I still have to read your winter outlook. Have to set myself a reminder. Always enjoy reading your outlooks.

Fair point...I agree. (I'll admit I wasn't entirely incorporating that area into my post). That area I think should be favored anyways when talking about potential for 2-4''+ of accumulation. Typically with how things evolve in these situations just seem to favor those areas. Also looks like drier air is a bit slower to work that far east.

The notion of differentiating coast/inland/elevation seems odd to me...I think Scott mentioned that too. Cold air arrives uniformly...the problem is more regarding how much QPF occurs on the colder side and how much lift we have to work with. the coast isn't going to get shutout b/c they're...on the coast.

Certainly can't discount the potential. I know I've been burned in the past with under estimating lift and what it can do.

More the reason to think eastern sections stand the better chance You really know how to make me hot

What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation... It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in

Continued to be not very impressed for us here in CT...minimal, if any accumulations and by minimal I mean a dusting...maybe the NE Hills some can grab an inch to 2'' but forecast soundings (at least at BDL) show a ton of dry layers. There is a decent amount of mid-level lift though...that's for sure, but there's also a quite a bit of subsidence in the lowest 10-15K of the atmosphere. any accumulations are going to be extremely localized

CAA dominates moving into Tuesday and well into Wednesday. You can see the resultant subsidence Here is the 850 RH. Plenty of dry air around. Sure dynamics are pretty damn solid and that will help with lift...but you can have all the lift you want...if there's nothing to lift...well I do agree with BOX there may be some narrow bands of snow, but this is going to be NBD in terms of accumulating snow.

I get the idea that TWC does use snow maps but obviously are presented differently...I could be wrong on that though. Anyways...that's exactly what I mean! It's the twitter weenies using them and b/c there are so many of them they just dominate. What I also can't stand is when you see the people (I've seen this on TV too...not around here but from youtube videos) who will post a model output...and then say, "But this solution has zero chance of happening or it's extremely unlikely"...THEN WHY EVE POST IT OR MENTION IT??? A huge example of that was this one event last winter...I think it was the one where we had the ice event here in central CT. Where model snow maps were showing 20-30''...people would post them...I think even one of the local news stations did (not Ryan's station) and it was either the GFS or Euro showing 20-30'''they said, something along the lines of this is what one of our forecast models are showing but thankfully it likely won't happen...WTF is the point of mentioning it then? Just why? There is no logical reason to justify showing it or mentioning it. All people are going to do is see the 20-30'' and freak out...and that's exactly what happened

Bingo! Also to your middle part...that is spot on too...I mean you can't put the total blame on the source providing the information...people time in and time out continue to fall for the hype...so sometimes people are there own worse enemy. For example, there is this ridiculous facebook group in CT...don't know what it's called but they have thousands, and thousands of followers...they do nothing but hype. People fall for it...get all pissed off...and blame meteorologists...but these same people CONTINUE to go to the same source for information. Kevin is 100% right when he says people love hype. People may say they don't but at the end of the day (for some psychological reason) people are easily sucked into hype.

ehh this is beyond a melt. And I also want to add it's not directed towards anyone here...it's moreso social media...and IMO that's a problem and it's a problem that is only going to worsen. It's a problem b/c probability the majority of people out there receive their weather info from social media...and there is so much garbage going around, so much contradiction, that people are legit confused...and I hear it all the time. People really have zero clue who to trust anymore for weather information...one of the biggest contributors here is hype.

Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. Model QPF showing 1.2''...snow map has 10-15''...it's real. Then when it busts..."wahhh wahhhh the forecast models suck"