weatherwiz

One worry is the steepest lapse rates move out too quick

The purely unidirectional component aloft and why flow is aligned with the front screams linear storm mode. Maybe some discrete ahead of it...can't rule out winds staying a bit backed in the Valley but I think we'll see multiple lines of storms. However...the NAM/GFS do increase the LLJ like right over SNE late afternoon so if somehow the sfc winds are more SW or S it could get a tad interesting

160+ ULJ streak right along the US/Canadien border too...ouch

I will be in the Danbury area b/c I'm doing my charter broadcast but as far as going chasing doubt it. I'm hanging out with someone tomorrow.

The last time was maybe 7/15/95? Lapse rates 6/1/11 were only around 7.5 I believe. Maybe one of the events in 2002 approached 8

That post was totally misread by everyone then I said I always get into the left land and will usually do between 70-80 mph (sometimes I'll get to 82 depending on if there is nobody else really ahead of me and if its a straight away). I said I prefer the left land b/c I don't have to worry about cars that merge onto the highway (unless there is a left on ramp) and for the most part there isn't a whole ton of wavering in and out of lands between left and center. What I said was I will not just pull over if I'm doing 70-75+ (especially when speed limit is only 55) b/c the person behind me wants to do 80...90 mph. changing lanes and crap when there is lots of density is what leads to accidents.

****

damn...I want to see golf ball hail.

I think mesosnalysis updates more rapidly now than just every hour

Nasty signature SE of Burlington

Thanks!! Noted for future reference.

Don't see this in the northeast very often

maybe this will be a situation where the radar doesn't look impressive but trees are toppling over left and right.

maybe add more moisture

I was just reading the outlook and they mentioned numerous severe gusts across MI...I don't think the thermodynamic environment there was impressive either. Perhaps the high Dcape will help? Maybe it is a bit noteworthy too that we were able to get some pretty decent gusts yesterday and you would think today conveciton would be much deeper. but idk...MLcapes less than 1000...tough to get truly excited

WOW...mod risk. Kind of odd to see that with such meager MLcape

??? are you implying i drive slow. I'm the total opposite

I wonder if I could still make chasing. I get out of work in Branford at 5. ( wishful thinking)

those LCL's lol

Tornado Watch coming soon up north

Very potent ML and UL jet streak will really enhance upper divergence

I'm a bit surprised at the late timing shown by the 3km NAM. Doesn't push anything through here until around 4z or so

Yeah I found it intriguing the past few days how the models increased instability towards the evening...something you don't usually see happen around here and especially this time of year. Initially I was thinking maybe a plume of steep lapse rates was moving in but yeah...that's a pretty decent plume of theta-e air which moves in later on.

Is the NAM Nest not working?