weatherwiz

Can't believe we're a month away from severe wx season...insane

ONE MONTH TO GO!!!

I think beginning next year the countdown thread will be until March instead of May. Been getting a few nice events the past several years this early. Since I hold the copyright to it I can make that change!!!

Just had a nice rumble!!!!

Jus tv a warm up for severe wx season. Crazy we’re almost a month away

Yes haha

Thanks! This clarifies things a bit. I was getting lost in the discussion haha

I’m so confused right now

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I think Will and Scott have briefly mentioned that it does seem to be running low now but your point is very valid

I feel likE if a high risk was coming there would have been an MCD

Almost time for the new day 1!

Only if all these restrictions end the virus is pretty contained

Quarantined in New England. title for James new book!

Might see a high risk later in parts of IA/IL later actually kinda scary given Chicago is in this potential

yeah that's something I've been looking at. I was initially thinking that the greatest degree of overnight convection may actually be a bit farther north and east of where the greatest potential is, however, the past few runs of the HRRR seem to be a bit more aggressive with overnight convection down into IA and into IL. Since this does look like a later show tomorrow anyways I guess that gives some more time for atmospheric recovery...but this is a pretty insane setup. Dews in the mid-to-upper 60's under very steep lapse rates...this isn't uncommon but put these ingredients under those shear parameters...yikes.

My God...the 12z models tomorrow across parts of IA/IL are jaw dropping scary. High risk with 30% TOR hatched coming at 1730? Maybe even 45% hail

Yikes...could be scary around Chicago tomorrow

thanks for the info!

Would you like a lime to go with your Corona?

Great, thank you! That's what I figured for the majors...did not know that about Coops though.

Does anyone know what the time period used is for the Daily Climate Reports? Is it 12:00 AM- 11:59 PM local time?

Not really. It was stated greatest potential was NY/PA (which is where the severe reports were). And it was also stated some might move into southern VT/western MA/western CT and a few did (though no thunder or lightning I don’t think)

Holy crap...I just realized the GFS now goes into April!!! There are ZERO full months left in the model world until May

COld front pushing into an unseasonably warm and moist airmass combined with strong dynamics should yield (perhaps) multiple bands of showers and t'storms this afternoon. Given the strong dynamics (particularly a very strong llvl jet) the greatest risk will be damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential is across NY/PA, however, some activity may sneak into southern VT, western MA, and western CT before dying out.