weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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it's spitting out 40-50dbz lol. Sometime I like double or triple check these point-and-click soundings...sometimes they load some totally funky and wonky charts
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Is this real
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Still looks like a pretty solid hit for much of CT. That gradient though...yikes.
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0z HRRR looking pretty solid along and east of 84
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It looks like there is a ton of convection in the warm sector. I wonder if it is robbing some of that moisture. Or it could just be a product of the just a bit too late of development
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It's a shame the developing jet streak doesn't really get going sooner. It starts to round the base of shortwave south of our region. If that happened as it was exiting the Ohio Valley this would probably a region wide 12-18'' type deal. Would possibly help with pushing that QPF farther northwest...but I still think that ultimately happens. Even some nice MAUL's on some of the soundings.
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I definitely think we’ll continue seeing ticks northwest. In fact, I was considering going 8-12” statewide. This is going to be yet another super impressive band. Perfect or nearly perfect H85 and H7 low tracks for heavy snow to move over CT. The 800-600 fronto from the FSU banding site was nuts. 60+ knots inflow too feeding moisture into the storm. Probably see QPF continue to bump a bit too
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This was a pretty fun storm. Usually on weekends I'll stay at a friend's house in Bethel and my plan was to drive into Branford Monday morning. I was actually considering getting a hotel room Sunday night but thought I'd be fine leaving like 6:30 AM Monday. Woke up at 6 and there was already about 3-4'' of snow on the road so I just worked remote...worked remote yesterday too. Actually probably got another 3-4'' yesterday from off and on snow. Winds were pretty crazy.
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I deserved to be tied up against a tree and beat with a stick. I am liking the HRRR though -
OH God...I can't believe I am posting a model snowfall map. Oh please Lord forgive me for my sins. I am going to have to do hailmarys until my sins are forgiven. This is a sad and terrible day.
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Even the 2z HRRR is looking a bit more juiced...or maybe it's just faster with timing
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it does
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I only know it on WSI. I never really use it though...sometimes I like to look at it for fun. It's one of those models that defines the phrase "even a blind squirrel finds a nut".
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I wish we could steal it and hope we do. I mean the Nets are actually decent...NJ doesn't deserve anymore miracles
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northern NJ is going to get absolutely pounded. Such consistent signals there. Someone is def getting 2' there
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Nothing wrong with filling up the bath tub a bit early
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The RPM is pretty horrific east of the CT River lol.
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Actually looks pretty decent across SW CT. Decent instability too with those super steep lapse rates. Could see a scenario where they could tack on 3-5'' with this
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Tuesday evening might be a bit impressive in terms of some re-development snows across parts of NYS down into eastern PA and parts of NJ. Super steep mid-level lapse rates combined with some pretty impressive llvl lift. Could see some nasty snow squalls there but I think the good remain west of our area.
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I certainly may end up beating myself up with this. I mean you know me...I'm usually one to be on the conservative side and I have a huge obsession with H7 RH and track. Why I elected to be so aggressive here...well I had reasons which I thought would outweigh here but just knowing how these work, probably won't happen.
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I do too...I think overall the output will be similar to that of the Dec storm...pretty much the majority of the state gets around a foot. And if lucky...some much more
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The H7 closing off so early and actually becoming pretty tightly compact (is that even the proper term for it lol) seems to ingest alot of dry air ahead of it and while we do try to recover it might not be enough. Just another ughhhhhhhh here lol.
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yeah I think the look on the GFS is actually pretty good for us here in CT. Could even argue it's better than the NAM
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18z NAM bufkit for BDL and Waterbury does look solid. For Waterbury, it actually looks to show a good 8-hour window of 1''/HR with 3-4 HR of 2''/HR with ratios about 15:1 to maybe 18:1
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yeah the H7 evolution is certainly not ideal for a HECS. It's such a bizarre evolution. I almost wonder if the NAM is correct with it...it just gets so jumpy with it.
