weatherwiz

The 12z Euro CRUSHES eastern ND and NW MN...holy crap. This is wild. Why can't we get something like this now...that would be awesome.

Take a look at this sounding. This is going to be quite historic across some of these areas. Snowfall rates could approach like 4-5''/HR if these signals hold true...and for a good several hours perhaps.

I wonder if a large part has to do with the sub-tropical central/northern Pacific and state of the GoA. Exceptionally warm waters in that region and that may be helping to enhance ridging...ridges seem to amplify in that general vicinity and the response is amplification troughs across the west. Maybe also influenced by East Asian Mountain torque...though I don't fully understand that stuff. Anyways though if we keep seeing these super intense systems and high Rossby wave activity I would think Rossby waves of this magnitude are connecting with the stratosphere so this could help to weaken the stratospheric polar vortex as it strengthens moving into the winter...then it's just a matter of weakening the TPV which I think there are some signals which favor this potential. I really wouldn't worry about what's happening right now though...we're really only entering the transition period and plenty of factors can influence things in about 6-10 weeks.

BJI!!!!

ughhh I want to go to NW MN Friday. I can't believe the totals the GFS/euro are dropping...they are going bonkers with that deform band. This sounding is FILTHY!!!

The GFS has been playing peek-a-boo the last several days with tropical development in the Gulf or Caribbean > 240 hrs out

Here's something we can all believe in

also b/c we live on Earth and there are always traces of moisture in the atmosphere

also shows 32 J of CAPE!!!!

Here's HCO...nicee!!!

I hurt my back in 2009 skating...was racing my brother from one side of the rink to the other...I stupidly was positioned right along the boards and misjudged where the boards began to curve, so when I did the hockey stop, I had to twist my body to avoid the boards and felt a few pops...I've had back pain ever since...and at times incredibly significant. The winter where we got pounded with snow and I had to shovel (was a corner house with very long sidewalks, driveway, and 3 walk ways) my back was so bad I could barely walk...took me 10-15 minutes to tie my skates. Just a few months ago I was putting down a box and it popped 4 times and was in pretty bad pain for a few days.

Look at this paste job in NW MN Thursday morning. Despite the nature of the system there could be a pretty solid swath of several-plus inches of snow.

yeah the winds have really picked up. Just walked back from lunch and it seems like a noticeable jump from the past hour.

That is an excellent tip...I never really thought to use obs at MWN in relation to forecasting overnight temps. Forecasting overnight lows (I think is real difficult)...there are so many factors which can influence how temperatures respond at night and the biggest challenge is gauging whether the BL will decouple or not. I remember a times times throughout the challenge both nailing and getting destroyed with lows b/c of radiational cooling. I've actually found forecasting lows down south (right along the Gulf) and HI to be a bit difficult.

How does radiational cooling work with respect to dewpoints? That is something I've tried to learn/understand in the past from doing the Wx Challenge, however, I seemed to perhaps lack some fundamental understanding. My assumption was when there was a very low dewpoint depression during the overnight, temperatures would struggle to really bottom out...and I would sort of use projected dewpoints for low temps...but I got bit real hard at times b/c the dewpoints would really crash too and the temperature would follow. As for tonight though it looked like dewpoints would hover in the lower 30's. There is a ton of dry air aloft so any mixing would certainly bring down drier air...but it didn't really look like there would be any mixing? Looked like subsidence inversion and light BL winds...but would this result in decoupling and does that mix down drier air?

maybe you can get a bed next to Gostowski

I don't think these next few nights are really enough to do much with the mosquitoes. You need a really good widespread hard frost/freeze. The mosquitoes are just going to cuddle up with a cute blanket and laugh. This cold will just tickle them

Next week could be much chillier than what models are showing. There is a pretty decent CAD signal. Plus looks pretty doog for a night or two or strong radiational cooling. I hope we at least get some type of awesome storm during this month...pattern sort of favors it but I think there are a few key pieces which may be lacking.

A giant mess

Don't count your chickens before they poop but this really isn't entirely far off from producing some potential..at least in NNE.

southern IL, MO, AR area could be in line for a decent severe event with that system. Doesn't look like a large-scale widespread event, but there may be a localized (but sizable) area for tornadic supercell potential. For the winter side of things though...someone could be whacked pretty good. Another historic storm coming for someone?

They could see several-plus inches of snow too across parts of ND/SD/eastern WY mid-week. Those same areas could see 80's a week later

1. May 31, 1998 Severe Weather Outbreak - This date can actually be defined as that entire weekend (Friday, May 29 to Sunday, May 31). I was in 4th grade at the time and I was going to my sisters for the weekend who lived in Windsor Locks. I don't remember the exact timing, but we had some real nasty t'storms move through late Friday afternoon. This was a pretty decent event (though I think the worst was just southwest of SNE). IMO, this day also gets very underlooked when discussing the 5/31/98 event as it played a crucial part in the outbreak. The cold front which produced the t'storms Friday, stalled south of the region. This boundary then moved north Sunday as a warm front...and a pretty active one as it produced rain and t'storms...I think even some severe weather. Anyways...enough of the weather set-up. From watching the news and reading the newspaper, I knew there was a risk for severe weather Sunday and I was PUMPED b/c I was going to be in Windsor Locks...just b/c of the 10/3/79 event I associated Windsor Locks with a great severe spot lol. The day started off cloudy/rainy, but by mid-morning skies quickly became sunny and it got hot and humid. I think it was also the neighbors kids birthday b/c there was a party going on...the Red Sox also played the Yankees this day and scored 10 runs in the 3rd inning I think...I remember eating a banana with my two nephews and friends and we were walking up and down the street chanting, "Red Sox rule, Yankees drool". Anyways...I kept closely watching TWC and listening to the radio and the were mentioning tornadoes and I was pumped...then the watch came out. Unfortunately, since I had school the next day I had to return home to West Hartford...I was pissed b/c I wanted to stay. When I got home I didn't even have to put TWC on b/c my parents already had it on. We closely watched as the t'storms in NY started approaching CT. Finally, the storms pushed into the state and a tornado warning went out for Litchfield County and the cell was headed in our direction. My parents went into the kitchen and I heard them making preparations to get myself, two brothers, and our kitty into the basement. My two brothers were scared but I was loving it. The t'storms hit and it was NUTS...strong winds, nickel hail (first time I'd seen hail) and then...a funnel cloud (or what my dad and I swear was a funnel cloud). We were both looking out the window (towards the east) and keep it mind its like 9:30-10:00 PM and real dark...only lightning lighting up the sky. In between the two houses across the street was this incredibly low cloud that may have been rotating. I'll never forget that. Also, around this time we got a call from my sister screaming, "THERE'S A TORNADO....OH MY GOD....THERE'S A TORNADO"...Windsor Locks also doesn't have many homes with basements in them and she is freaking out b/c she had 3 kids at the time...so we told her get into either the bathroom or a closet with blankets. Turns out not a tornado but she was dead smack in the middle of the microburst. 2. December 2006 snowstorm WOW...that was wild. I think I got 14'' of snow in 3-hours; including thundersnow. Ended up with 27'' of snow...half the storm total coming in that 3-hours when the death band just sat and pivoted. By far the most snow I had ever seen...until 2013. 3. June 10, 2008 (I think it was the 10th) 20 minutes of hail...mostly pea but as big as nickle...it piled up and accumulated...never, ever seen anything like that and haven't since. The duration of the hail was unbelievable. 4. May 15, 2018 Was in Danbury on a date that day and we were just a FEW MILES from the Microbust which occurred at Candlewood Lake). Had nickle hail and just insane winds. It was so wild couldn't even hear the thunder. What was really crazy was the power went out even before the gust front got to us. 5. Blizzard of 2013 Jaw dropping snow rates and flake size...it was like a severe thunderstorm with snow...winds were pretty strong too. I think I got 27.5'' of snow or 28' which just beat out Feb 2006. The snow drifts were wild. At some point could barely even see the street from outside my window. I think snow rates were like 3-4''/hour in WeHa. But I think Steve posted getting like 5-6''/hr...those radar returns were beyond insane.

I wonder if there are any radar images floating out there...at least radar. I think BDL may have had radar at the time. Anyways, from also reading on the write-up from wiki there was no tornado warning issued on the cell b/c the actual height of the storm was completely undermeasured. A severe warning was issued just minutes before the tornado, however, nobody received the warning. Based on the accounts and damage photos it's a miracle only three were killed. It was a left-moving supercell. Oddly...the Ha,den, CT F4 in 1989 was also a left-moving supercell.

I was just going to post...there actually looks like some tornado potential across western NY right off the Lake.