weatherwiz

plate tectonics hard at work

This...I think that is a great point with strong validity. Obviously...here major...perhaps biggest driver here is the structure of the QBO. *cue in Sam Lillo with his amazing MQI data*

well if I get skunked so do you hahahahaha

Ahh...thank you! Easy enough to understand. Going back to your post as well...there does seem to be some room for a potential SSW towards month's end. I wonder if that's what models are hinting at and the response is the big blocking they indicate in the higher latitudes.

Are you familar with this website? This is an incredible website put together by Zachary Lawrence which has some excellent information for stratosphere monitoring. https://www.stratobserve.com/ Anyways, there are some products I' not sure how to interpret. For example, I know this displays the structur eof the SPV...I understand what potential temperature is...but what's like the overall significance? My guess is this is indicating a pretty strong SPV which is on the elongated side?

Steve...not so much. his location...yes

Why does it seem during these colder air masses the NAM likes to mix at night?

That's what sucks about alot of this stuff...all mostly GFS based and it's difficult to get access to anything which uses Euro data. AAM seems highly intriguing but quite complex with all the different torques that are at play. But is it the AAM/torques which drive the deviations in the jet stream or is it the deviations in the jet stream which drive the AAM/torques? If it's the later then the models forecasts of it would be almost insignificant b/c if the models are forecasting some deviation in the jet (which ends up being incorrect) it will reflect in AAM/torque forecast.

I'll try and see if I can gather some info from the twitter world after

Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on?

I've come across this place on twitter and a few other weather forums. However, when I do the username and password it just says your connection is not private. Can someone see if this works for them?

Are there any sites which have AAM plots? I know there are a few groups who have been working to construct them after the individuals at the PSD retired. WDT used to host them but guess they don't anymore.

You're right...wow this didn't even cross my mind. Most airport codes are pretty easy to decipher and piece together but for some reason that thought never occurred to me here. Sometimes I over think and get all bent out of shape instead of trying to put 2 + 2 together

that one kinda drives me nuts too...but it is the Hartford area. I never even heard of Avaca...was on the NWS BGM page looking at climate data for AVP and they had Avoca in parenthesis so then I knew on that thredex site that it was Scranton. Pissed me off

God knows what other locations they do this for. Stupid...going to have to go through and figure it out. Like why would they have it listed at Avoca...it's a stupid borough

what I hate about this website is instead of listing Scranton/Wilkes-Barre they list it as Avoca...THE NWS PAGE HAS IT AS SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE...CALL IT THAT

Yeah that agreement is pretty solid. Even though there are those differences in the eastern PAC/western US...not sure it would really amount to significant differences...either way it's a solid look but not fully out

Pretty interesting how much the euro and the GFS differ on the PAC side of things...pretty solid agreement regarding the configuration of the ATL. At least there is a window to get something potentially decent (actually perhaps two opportunities). What scares me with the Euro is if we miss out on a storm potential we're just going to get nailed with cold straight out of the Arctic or even Siberian origin :x

This is fun discussion too...very great. I love playing with and crunching numbers. Just looking at a specific number doesn't really tell you much.

yeah November...and even December is still a transition month depending on where you are. For example, BDL...beginning of November ave high is upper 50's, by months end its mid 40's. December goes from mid 40's to mid 30's. It's January (which has the least) and February winter months which have smallest deviation from start to end

Just did this for Hartford...only using climo period (would love to just pick a random date and collect temperatures on every date...when I have some time at some point) Avg = 53 6 times the max was in the 40's and 6 times in the 60's...so just as much of a chance to have a high temperature into the 60's as in the 40's on this date. But given the average is closer to 50 and opposed to higher in the 50's I guess you can decipher there is a better chance of it being on the colder side than the warmer side.

I think you also have to consider what's the more likely. For example, Say you have values of 80, 75, 73, 69, 45, 47, 48, and 50. The average is about 61...but in reality there is just of good as a chance of seeing 70+ as there is 50 Anyways...we're dealing with a very large data set so the spread may not be that crazy...but it would be really awesome to dig into and look at the high temperature for a particular day back to records and then do a breakdown.

This is something I strongly, strongly, strongly agree with and I've thought a quite a bit about this lately. Say an average is 55...well it would be interested to know how many times the temperatures was below a certain value and how many times the temperature was above a certain value. Sometimes averages can be extremely deceiving. Although, the larger the data set the less spread there should be over time.

When you were 2 or 3 sweatshirts plus a jacket...it's too cold...and two pair of gloves.