weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Well that's good to know. true When I first starting taking stabs at snowfall forecasting I use to just estimate a ratio and see what the precip maps were showing for QPF and bang out some math...worked once in a while lol
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I only use them to just gather an illustration of the area where snow accumulations are possible...its just a glancing look too. Other than this I don't pay attention to them and just look past them whenever I see them on social media or anywhere
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Wait a second...do all snow maps account for sleet in the algorithms? No wonder why they're always spitting out insane totals You can't incorporate sleet into an algorithm using a fixed ratio...especially a ratio that high.
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Gotcha...sort of seems similar to what the GFS would indicate? Just looking at mlvls on the GFS that's something I can envision happening.
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^^^Now that makes more sense
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Is the RGEM doing anything with the CCB? Based on the structure of that snow map my guess it isn't...Unless it does have it but it is not bringing it into CT and has it traversing west to east across MA.
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The dry slot will screw someone...but I would think it's only temporary.
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It may rip in the NW Hills Monday evening per the GFS...pretty damn good soundings with some great lift.
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This is one of the more bizarre thermal profile modelings I can remember. Do models take into account latent heat release at all? I know sneaky warm layers aren't uncommon but some of what's being modeled is a little head scratching
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biased...more like intelligent. Ray is a phenomenal forecaster who uses absolutely zero bias in his forecasts. He devotes a great deal of time into making (and what usually end up being) very solid calls. Go stick to your ridiculous snow maps and let the people who actually forecast based on science/meteorology do their thing.
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yup lol. oh well...time to go home...no traffic either
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I guess looking closer on the cod map there could be another closed contour over LI...anyways the entire thing is rather broad and that's going to keep the lift much further north.
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ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI just a ferry trip away
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Tracks H7 and H85 over my fanny
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Should kinda be expected though with that push of WAA...it's just a matter of how the column responds post WAA regime.
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Flagstaff I think is very underrated...they can get crushed with snow and wind.
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Wish I was in western SD though...sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-70 mph...reminds me of watching Little House on the Prairie...and reading the books. Maybe next year I'll do storm chasing for a week out west and then take another week for snow chasing and go to a place that's going to get a nasty blizzard in the Plains
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Hamden is probably the best spot to be in CT for extreme weather lol. "F4" in 1989, another tornado last year, downbursts, macrobursts, they had that historic flooding, the 40'' of snow, more flooding.
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Someone should get thundersnow too!!!
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Thanks! I probably would have waited until today to do a map as opposed to yesterday but I knew I wouldn't have had time to do a full-out blog post lol. I'm hoping not to have to tweak this anymore. The more snow we get, the faster the winter goes
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I'm pretty excited...this is exciting. Unfortunately I'll miss out on the big snows at BDL b/c I'll probably stay at a hotel in Branford Sunday so I can get to work Monday but I'll be off antibiotics tomorrow so I can chillax in my hotel room sunday night watching the Pats/Bruins and drink this awesome double IPA I bought a few weeks ago I've been dying to try. WINTER!!!!!!!!
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I'm really liking the WAA thump here...also becoming a bit more impressed with the banding with round 2. I know we'll have to overcome those warm layers, but I think dynamic cooling is going to help big time and the lift in the banding is going to be pretty intense. Decided to increase from yesterday.
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I don't think it's that powdery in CT....maybe, maybe at the very onset of the WAA thump. On MOnday though thermals are a little too warm for powder here I think
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Even seeing some MAUL looks on some soundings...makes sense with some steep lapse rates involved. I'd watch for convective elements here which can really make for some localized white pasting fun
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Seems like dynamic cooling perhaps is trying to really get going and trying to work some magic. We're super close here in northern CT...riding along the lines of an isothermal paste job. Kevin without power for weeks
