It's just not a good look that first week for any meaningful cold. Even though the AO/NAO do head negative, it looks like that is driving by some higher height anomalies poking into the southern part of those domains which isn't really favorable for us. Even if we had higher heights into the PNA region I don't think that does much to help given the lack of cold. But yeah, after 12/5 or around that time frame the Pacific looks a bit better with teleconnection support to drive some cold into Canada...so if we can keep a theme going of higher heights into the West maybe mid-December we'll have a shot.