weatherwiz

I can already smell the tulips

We could really be heading towards a snooze fest of a pattern...to me it seems like a pattern we would see between the transition from fall to winter...where things sort of quiet down after the fall and then we establish our winter pattern. But there seems to be strong support for large high pressure to become established over a major chunk of the U.S. Patterns like that can hold for quite a while too. I'm guessing after that pattern we could bold right into a late spring type pattern.

Only part of this statement is fully accurate...though the jest of it is true.

One of these days when I have time I'm going to go on a nice ranting blog post about this and snow maps. Perhaps I'll do that this upcoming Sunday.

Couldn't agree anymore here...people are willing to wait hours in line for food or shopping, but when it comes to reading something forget it. Same goes to forecasting...constructing an excellent forecast requires a great deal of time and detail. Forecasters who spend the time to look over all variables and use knowledge to determine "what makes the most sense" are going to be more accurate than those who don't. Forecasting now is almost becoming a joke b/c it's just rip and read off a few products and go from there.

We'll be tracking severe wx in June and people will still be holing out hope for a pattern change and snow

yeah the Swanzey one which happened like 10:00 AM in 2008 2012 I think even had a couple in CT from that same event could even go back to 2007 (which had the supercells on June 5) and 2006 (derecho in August and a major event July 18 that was April I think...went to the Baseball HOF that day...if we're thinking same event

ughhhh that's what I thought but I edited and revered them. My memory isn't what it used to be. I'm going to re-edit back so it's correct

The past decade has been pretty solid for severe too. 2008 was wild with the cold pool hail events (that year alone accounted for like 15% of NYS hail reports...from 1950-2008). 2009 sucked 2010 had back-to-back tornado watch days 2011 had June 1st 2012 I don't remember 2013 I think was the year CT had the 4 weak tornadoes in July (though this could be argued it was the same tornado that kept jumping) 2014 don't remember 2015 don't remember 2016 we had that major outbreak in February 2017 I think this was a second half of summer driven with the nocturnal lightning producing events 2018 had May 15 then September/October was kinda wild. Tied record year for tornadoes in CT 2019 kinda sucked actually 2020...Going to Oklahoma!!!!!!

Thank God social media didn't exist then

Is that not even 10'' just before 1940? ouch

1937-1938 looked like a poop winter

About the time of year where we transition from 384-hr snow maps to 384-hour CAPE maps..well you have to hover over each hour b/c obviously there is no "total cape". With that here's 318-hours

Waters off Africa are quite warm...just based off of looking seems like you have to go back to 2016 to find similar anomalies at the same time frame. I think that was an active Cape Verde season? If that persist into the summer with ENSO neutral or ENSO negative...maybe an active Atlantic season. Anyways, sometimes I like staring at these maps (though haven't done so in a while) and think about how these anomalies help to shape and configure the pattern and what relation/role they have in some of the major oscillations/teleconnections.

Excellent post...true and very valid points. I have read that regarding those wildfires...I guess what seemed to be the larger concern was how these intense fires started well before their "actual" wildfire season...?

I strongly agree here...in fact, I think one could argue that the result of some of what is going on is tied into the balance trying to be re-stored. I know the Earth goes through cycles and the Earth has gone through periods of extreme warmth before...but when you account for the population now compared to back then the scale of the impacts are much more extreme. Obviously it can be argued whether humans are directly related to the changes in climate or not...but whether humans are to blame doesn't really change the fact that changes in climate are resulting in significant disruptions to lives/nature. Australia is a great example...now perhaps centuries or thousands of years ago the Hadley cell went through a similar shift to what is occurring now and human-induced climate change isn't to blame...but that's minute. At the end of the day millions of people and wildlife are being impacted.

Yes it's increased but still well below what it should be. Meanwhile, in Antarctica ice sheets bigger than big cities are breaking off. anyways, I know this stuff belongs in climate change (and for obvious reasons) but this is always a subject that people will agree-to-disagree on but at the end of the day people's opinions on the subject mean absolute crap b/c what is occurring will continue to occur whether people want to believe it or not. People's opinions aren't going to change how climate will continue to evolve moving forward or that ramifications it will have.

If that is true to size then I pass

Let start cranking those SST's and limit marine taint once severe season ramps up here

It's crazy the models are already poking into March. This means in two months they will be poking into May!

I was getting a good laugh the other day with that. Steve was cracking me up

Wasn't it pretty shattering too...especially considering we were Nino free? Pretty concerning stuff

I get what you're saying...no real reason for using 2012. March too could easily come in cooler than average...or around average. Despite what we've seen with the AO this month we really weren't far off from getting a colder look with good snow chances this month so far All we really needed was to poke some higher heights just a bit farther north into AK and the game would have been different

This March could very well yield a pattern similar to that of 2012...the way everything is structured now and how it seems to evolve is a bit similar...obviously some displacements of key anomalies but I think we're heading into the direction of a warm month.