weatherwiz

Perhaps this is incorrect, but this is what it appears with regards to the "dual lows" at the surface. The wave which comes inland looks like the main wave which develops along the cold front. The secondary low looks to be the one which forms from the modeled SE convection. This low then completely blows up due to 1) phasing with the vigorous s/w energy with the trough and looks like enhancement from the jet max surrounding the base of the upper trough. This outcome then completely covers the solution with puke. It looks like the LLJ with the frontal wave is nothing out of the ordinary...but with what happens b/c of that other low and the significant strengthening which occurs you get a response in the LLJ to go wild...forgetting even the wind potential this then increase theta-e advection, moisture transport, and PWAT values into the region...add extra lift and extra moisture and the response is bonkers QPF. Naturally, as a low develops and strengthens along the front, you'll get a LLJ increase, however, the big question here is what is the driving point behind the strengthening of the frontal wave? Going to rule out dynamics here based on the structure of the ULJ and MLJ...so the next explanation would be a tightening thermal gradient...but is it possible this is being enhanced b/c of that secondary low?

GFS brushes the Cape and islands with a 50-60 kt 925 jet. By the time this really gets going it's legit already east of SNE. The Cape will likely see some decent wind gusts, but this is also going to be short duration wind episode...unless you want to count having the strong WNW/NW gusts Thursday as well. The rainfall rates will be the most impressive aspect of this event really...thankfully this is the fast mover it is, but the rain rates under the strongest lift are going to be pretty ridiculous. Someone could pop an inch in like 20-minutes lol

This is 6-HR accumulations (6z-12z). BS flags all over the place. Also fronto map (9z).

If only. NAM NEST (which I think kinda blows) shows like 45-55 knot gusts Cape/Islands...seems reasonable.

6z GFS Bufkit Thursday AM at BOS...not bad

I was at school for that...I remember it being a much more potent event then originally thought. I don't totally remember the set-up for that though...are there any similarities to this setup? (I'm not sure if NARR goes to 2017 yet). That event too also had bombogenesis occur right? Was there energy already in place during that phasing? Or was generated in a way like what is modeled to for today?

I'm always highly intrigued by your gravity waves posts. Eventually I'll get around to studying them more but most of what I know about them is from you. Those are something that is certainly in the back of my mind with this event.

ughhh COD has been having some major issues the past few months with model runs...especially 6z. Hopefully they will be able to resolve these issues at some point.

I don't think we're in the game for that. The Cape and Islands get the good winds here. This just isn't a good wind setup for us. I would suspect 35-45 mph gusts Thursday...NAM is a bit stronger with this potential but NW winds around the backside of systems is typically good for us.

I thought the post you made last night was a pretty solid layout for what to expect.

Bingo...this is pretty much the key between anomalous (that trough digging in is already going to be pretty anomalous...in terms of strength) and super-anomalous. The NAM goes wild with some convective blob across GA lol.

Very real. I love trying to sniff these out several days out.

SST's are going to be > sfc temps Also SST's are what in Long Island...lower 60's? That's not exactly "warm". We're dealing with a stable airmass here...if we got into the warm sector it would be a different story. If you want wind just wait to Thursday...we'll get our wind then

Quick go through of some point-and-click soundings across the interior have an inversion...doesn't look overly strong, but as we've seen in the past even a very weak inversion will limit winds. GFS bufkit is actually sustained like pretty much tropical storm force across at CHH. We'll have to see much much rain does fall (thankfully this is a quick mover) but there could be tree damage/power outages Thursday...still looks like some decent winds on the backside.

The trof also has rotation potential

I think there will be a real good slug of precip but not sure how widespread it will be. I do think this thing could lose its juice quick and things shut down...you can kinda see all models show that. This is kinda hard to totally decipher though I think. I’m still highly skeptical of the whole phasing thing and exactly what happens when that phasing takes place. I know we’re inside a favorable window and the support seems to be there, but phasing is a very fickle thing. I forgot who it was who mentioned this, but they mentioned about not having some sort of low in the southeast already. The ideas of these s/w is stemming on the idea of convection forming in the southeast tomorrow...and the NAM goes s/w happy and then goes bonkers with one of the pieces

I think it’s b/c in how the storm strengthens. It strengthens rapidly as its passing to the east of SNE. Plus I also think this is moving very progressive and that’s going to cut down totals

I even think the H5 height anomaly charts in this case are a bit overblown. The trough is certainly potent and of course will be associated with extremely below-average heights, but they’re being enhanced by this “phasing” of this s/w energy was seems convectively-feedback induced. So of course models are going wild with SLP deepening.

whoops...thought I had the GFS up...it's the NAM which does so. GFS isn't as strong...gusts 35-40 mph.

GFS cranks the CAA winds Thursday. Looks like gusts 40-50 mph region-wide. Sustained 15-20 too

euro dumps like 3-5'' across western/central MA down into western/central CT

One of the more laughable wind maps I've ever seen...from the euro no doubt. The amount of convective feedback here is ridiculous. Hopefully not a sign of things to come for winter otherwise every single event we'll be seeing 20-30'' snow maps getting tossed around like Daniel Jones.

lol like 40-60 mph gusts inland and 70-80 mph gusts across the Cape

This is pretty far out there, however, both the GFS and Euro have advertised a fairly significant trough amplifying across the central United States moving into next week and then lifting to our northwest...yielding a significant rise in heights across the east and establishing a southerly flow, advecting an unseasonably warm/moist flow. This will help result in some pretty decent low-level theta-e and yield at least some degree of buoyancy. Aloft, we'll see rather impressive dynamics in response to the amplified trough and we may even have some steep lapse rates due to strong CAA in the mid-levels and likely strong cold pool associated with the main energy. We would be looking at the potential for a low-topped squall line (which may or may not be accompanied by lightning...too early for those details). Now that we're into the fall these type of setups are not uncommon across these parts. Something to watch!

I'm not so sure this thing will slow down enough to make that happen. The front doesn't seem to be totally parallel to the upper-flow and there really is no (strong enough) high to the east to slow the eastward progression. Everything seems to be pointing towards a rather progressive solution here...so despite good rain potential that's why I don't think we'll have to worry too much about flooding. Another wild card too is how does the rain/convection evolve across the southeast tomorrow. The atmosphere will be pretty juiced (pretty high PWATs) and you have the stationary front nearby so I'm sure there will be a decent slug of rain and scattered t'storms in the southeast. Just seems to me though that (at least the NAM anyways) is being a bit too sensitive with the s/w's which traverse across the southeast tomorrow.