weatherwiz

ahhh that's what you mean by ride rollover...pretty clear now to see that with this explanation.

it actually looks pretty similar to the GFS regarding the southern stream at 84-hr anyways (which is good) but yeah it isn't digging as much with that north stream. I was actually wondering if the euro was faster with the southern stream based on how SLP unfolded but speed doesn't look all that different. What's funny though is I thought the Euro was a tad higher with some of the heights out west (looked like it was a bit farther north with the 552 contour but with closer inspecting there are differences in the ridge between the two.

ahhh they're on WeatherBell. That's why I couldn't find them on Ryan Maue's site Unless I just can't find them.

I'm actually not sure where to get the plot which shows the individual low tracks but from judgement of eye (which is never a good way to go) 12z does look solidly west. but I always get a little weary of focusing too much on individual runs (and EPS for that matter) and how far west/east storm track is when phasing is involved b/c there are so many moving factors involved with phasing that agreement (or disagreement) 2...3...4 days out means little. At the end of the day a 6-hour difference in the timing of any of the important features will dictate whether phasing happens or not. We could go into 12z Thursday and still be 12-hours off within timing and all of a sudden 0z runs come out and bam...there's a phase and we get nailed.

Not very far off from something pretty big

I wouldn't be surprised to continue seeing the southern vort trend slower. A lot of these southern stream systems this winter have typically ended up becoming slower in nature as opposed to more progressive. Noticed that alot with many of these rain/convective events in the south this winter. Hopefully though we'll get a better handle on the western ridge over the next 24-hours. Not sure though if it should be a bit concerning to see 12z begin to go towards a flatter ridge but tough to say.

chickens?

Beginning of severe wx season!

The models too have struggled significantly with the whole southern stream system and potential impacts across the south. Heck, there was a good part of last week where EPS were even spitting out a large swath of like 4-8'' of rain across the TN Valley with some significant convection...boy has that changed. could certainly see a situation where the southern energy ends up a bit weaker...which would increase the likelihood of more involvement with the northern stream?

In about 12-13 days the GFS will start poking into April so we're essentially only 12-13 days away from being 0 full months away from May in the model world.

Only thing missing is a circled contour in NE MA

Only one more full month to go until we hit May...WOW. It's a comin'!!!!!!

It would be fun to get the end of the week to pan out. Seems like a much different scenario than what we've been dealing with all winter so maybe that is some good news. I also think we've had several decent events which preceded a warmer pattern, no?

The northern stream is no joke end of week...nice. Wouldn't mind a nice little crusher then bounce back with 50's days later.

Well then.

Seems like if that northern stream energy can interact in time with the southern stream energy as it's departing that would open the door for something...particularly NNE Is this how some of those December event's worked out?

I totally agree with this...especially with your first sentence. Part of what's happened too is the winter has just been so bad everyone's emotions are running high and things get a bit chaotic in terms of posting...it's always been that way. Once we usually get a serious threat or are within a favorable regime the tone becomes much different. I have been quite tongue-in-cheek with posting (which is not good) but not sure why really. In all honesty I wouldn't discount any more chances for snow and like you said...you don't have to be in a long-term favorable pattern for snow. All you need is a brief stint where the pattern is favorable and hope something works out. Sure it hasn't this winter but even though we're moving towards the spring perhaps some of the changes that occur with wavelengths and responses could end up favoring us. We just need something good to pop and change the mood here

I thought my response was pretty good! Did take a couple minutes though to construct it

When people understand that weather actually happens outside of their backyard and just b/c their house didn't get a t'storm or that they didn't see severe wx doesn't mean an event or a forecast was a "bust".

If anything this was good practice for the season. Gotta shake off the forecasting rust.

Ok, this is a more fair assessment. but to say thinking along a certain way is being level headed is just not correct. Thinking that period could be above-average in terms of temperatures is just as level headed as thinking it could be cooler with a chance for some snow. Are there signals pointing more towards one direction than the other...sure but it's not like those signals are overly strong and a few minor adjustments can result in a pattern that is colder or one that is much warmer

This is where i strongly disagree. In fact, I could argue it's the opposite of level minded. When dealing with medium and long-range you can always find something and make a case for whatever it is you're trying to state. There have obviously been two camps these past two months and one of those camps have just been flat out wrong...but to ensure they can't be wrong they just add buffer sentences and statements which just say "but that doesn't mean it will happen" "it may not play out that way" etc. Every single time those who have posted against those EPS pattern signal changes they've been ridiculed.

I'm just amazed at the AO this winter. 1) How quickly the AO just jumped into positive territory and never looked back 2) How many times it peaked at +4SD 3) For this entire month each drop in the AO was less impressive then the previous drop. This stretch will end that. But that forecast drop in a few weeks looks close to the period Will is talking about too .

I wonder if it will go below the dip from a few weeks ago. But it does look like the entire structure of the AO is beginning to break down (perhaps more related to the transition towards spring?). I know the AO loses correlation as we move through the spring, but should we continue seeing such high anomalies it will continue holding at least some weight on the pattern.

nice. Do you know what the daily values where?