weatherwiz

You mean Tuesday? Tuesday looks decent. I think we could see potential for a few embedded wet microbursts but I'm wondering if flash flooding will be the biggest concern...even with relatively dry grounds. PWATS surge to >2.5'' ahead of the front and the front becomes aligned parallel to the upper-level flow so that will really slow things down. Despite the poor lapse rates high dewpoints should help with decent updrafts and any pockets of stronger heating and steeper low-level lapse rates will help with the localized potential for strong-to-damaging wind gusts.

Yeah it's been pretty dead outside of like one or two other decent events but they were mostly north of here. I didn't even get the chase (so far) to do any chasing around. When my friend was down late May/early June there was nothing at all in the Northeast and the couple days there have been stuff I was working. But we'll see what happens next spring. If this job becomes full time I'll get a week of paid vacation and I won't have school to deal with anymore either.

it sucks I haven’t had the time to really post the past few years but next year that should be different

Not really. Watched it for a few days.

Tuesday looks like a pretty solid wet microburst setup. Nothing widespread but a few wet microbursts certainly possible...especially where llvl lapse rates are most steep. Front looks almost parallel to the upper flow too. With high PWATS flash flooding possible too

Twitter can be a big riot. I get a kick out of the "models could still trend west" or "I think models will trend west" posts...even know there is no sound meteorological reasoning for why. Its more wishcasting than anything. I mean with Chris...we only have a stalled boundary off the coast and then another frontal boundary pushing off the cast but let's disregard that and still think Chris could have came west.

I’ve been getting a huge laugh at reading tweets about how people in New England needed to “watch” Chris

NAM Nest a bit impressive tomorrow

Past several runs of the HRRR have been pretty aggressive with the strengthening of a decent looking squall line across the southern part of CT into RI and SE MA

maybe I'll see a TOR on my drive to Branford in the morning

Sure does. Also, pretty steep lapse rate as well between the surface and like 960mb (ish). Should really help with parcel acceleration in the lowest levels. LCL and LFC aren't too far apart either

What station is that? That's actually not bad CAPE values given the shear.

PWAT values well over 2'' tomorrow...wow

Flash flooding is certainly biggest threat tomorrow. Otherwise not much going for any strong-to-severe storms. Will probably see a couple but that's about it

Thanks!

Last weekend it looked like there was a shot to get some stepper lapse rates to work in around the timing of the FROPA but that idea doesn't look as good anymore. I think central/northern New England will be closer to the better jet dynamics and stronger height falls. If we can develop enough instability I could see one or multiple lines of thunderstorms develop but right now I don't think it will be a crazy type of severe event. With enough heating and steep enough low-level lapse rates I'm sure we can muster up a decent amount of wind damage reports. Timing is still tough to gauge and I'm sure we'll have convective cloud debris to contend with.

Ok

Holy ****..that's like top 5 highest CAPE I've ever seen modeled lmao. I think a few times I've seen like 12,000 modeled across IA before.

Just noticed something...on the bottom left of the hodo there is something that says critical angle. What does that refer too?

Look at this sounding across SE ND tomorrow evening lol. Going to be some vicious supercells tomorrow. Over/under the largest hail size either reported or able to be estimated via radar? I'll go with 4.50'' EDIT: Although the mid-level shear isn't particularly strong enough to support that

Another day of naked sun tanning! Only out here a few minutes and the sweat is pouring

Perfect day for some naked sun tanning

Derecho composite

Could be quite interesting tomorrow night across NNE...NAM Nest has shown a decent looking squall line for a few runs. This is WAY out there but next weekend could have some big potential if we can get things to time properly and get an EML advection.