weatherwiz

Wednesday is a day where with any sun BDL could tickle 70. Going to be some strong mixing ahead of the front

Signals have been there for a while March was going to be predominately above-average. Remember the first week of March was supposed to be cold Not going to get any long-sustained cold blasts with this look: 500 zonal wind anomalies since Jan 1...easy to see why we've been predominately on the warmer side but you can also see how we can sneak in those brief bursts of (and at times) impressive cold shots. Given the state of the Arctic combined with the move towards the equinox March is going to be warm...and potentially quite warm

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. .

It's going to be wild from the OV to the Gulf coast first half of next week. Going to be some significant flooding along with severe

There was actually some small hail in PA last night

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out.

you are such a weenie deflater

well now I am in the same boat as everyone else with calling for the fake winter threats that never transpired.

But you can’t compare long-range/seasonal models with short-term models. They’re completely different in terms of parameterizations, equations, physics, etc. Statistically climate models are more likely to be accurate. but in terms of buying what the CPC is showing for 15-months...it has nothing to do with buying or selling...it’s not like they’re just pulling this out of their ass. Significant amount of work goes into the construction of these forecasts. Will every month end as so...perhaps not. But the fact of the matter is, given the climate regime we’re in AN is going to win out over BN. further complicating matters is analogs and these correlations that were once a thing are losing merit b/c we’re continuing to find ways to yield temperatures overall which are warmer than average.

Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill.

social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad.

It's creeping

This is actually very true

A combination of all sources...here + social media. It's been known for years that across all weather platforms individuals who aren't in the camp of snow/cold get ridiculed. Some of the big time posters from here left b/c of being attached (mainly in NYC threads) anytime they would post something that was against such scenarios. If you follow twitter closely it happens there too...folks that do alot with long-range any time they are not going cold/snow people jump all over them.

They have added some awesome MJO and ENSO re-analysis and regression products over the past several years...I feel like they've really stepped it up quite a bit with their seasonal forecasting products/research. Were they involved with the AAM data/research or was that another division? It's a shame the individuals who were doing research and providing plots/data retired and they had nobody to take over.

I wonder too what the process is behind their seasonal outlooks...do they have folks who specialize in seasonal outlooks or are they mostly derived from long-range seasonal forecast models? I've always been under the impression it is the later.

when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers

It makes since how we are running below-average for precipitation this winter given we're below-average in terms of snow. Isn't there a pretty decent positive correlation to precipitation/snowfall departures across our parts? Then as you get like to PHL on south the correlation to snowfall is more related to temperature departures? Like we can still get above-average snowfall with temperatures a bit above-average but go to PHL...very tough to do

No

Going to be pretty sick

Wtf looking forward to tomorrows convection

Looks like marginal expanded slightly. I think dews only in the 40's might be the main cause. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal expanded...perhaps not into SNE but into PA and parts of NJ

If you post them here and then pin the thread you'll be able to view them more easily you need to add the upside down smiley to the list of emojis.

I wish dewpoints were just a bit higher...even lower 50's could do some wonders

Time to pin the severe thread!!!