weatherwiz

I feel like there are people who just browse social media 24/7 and stalk either local news stations or NWS and troll. My roommate from school works on TV in Bangor, ME and the comments he gets are ridiculous. One viewer was claiming she measured like 26'' of snow in the last storm and was upset b/c when he mentioned a range of totals that fell on air her total wasn't in the range lol

What I've learned from here over the years is that the best method/approach to forecasting is to account for everything...especially flags. When flags start to arise, that's when you need to pump the brakes and start asking yourself questions in your head...questions such as "how does this alter the potential outcome" or "what does this offset". What I then do is try and paint a visualization in my head of how everything will look as the event is unfolding (especially regarding radar). This does burn me often b/c I will be conservative more times than not, however, I have learned that there are some things I may place too much emphasis in or that my understanding of what I was interpreting was just flat out wrong. One example of this is RH in the DGZ. For some reason I was using 90+% as a threshold, however, upon reading up, I was way too high...threshold seems to be more in the 80-85% range...so when I would see less than 90% I would think it was too dry for good snowgrowth and I would underforecast. I also suck at not necessarily analyzing charts like 500 vorticity, but I really suck at understanding how the pieces work together and how subtle changes in placement, structure, track influence everything at the surface. This BURNED me last year...remember the weekend where we had a storm Friday and sunday or Monday...I completely played up the Friday one and and downplayed the second one...we got little Friday and slammed Sunday. That certainly presents a major challenge for you...and everyone else really. It has to be tough when forecasting along the boundaries of CWA's in questionable situations...you think 1-2'' but just across the border they're going like 4-6''...huge difference and that does the public no good. People really thought you were ignoring southern NH...lol

Thanks but it's not over yet haha. If the Pats can come back from down 28-3...anything can happen lol.

I wonder if you can forecast negative snow...since we measure snow that reaches the ground (a positive value) what about snow that evaporates before reaching the ground...or gets caught in the updrafts?..it's not falling to the ground...it's rising farther from the ground.

What's funny is there is a chance perhaps CT coast sees more than inland

One in winter and one in summer I think is fine. The problem with the winter one is it is done on a Monday and in Boston. Living in CT, by the time we get out of work and into Boston...it would be time to come home. I like a spring/summer one b/c the weather is so much nicer and it's more enjoyable...Funky's I think had doors open and throughout the history of these things the spring/summer ones always seem to have higher turnouts...though there was an early winter one that did very well once or twice.

Ugly

Love it Should have put the lol emoji over Tolland

Easiest map to do LOL

I may have to lower

I'd bet on this over the deal

you see this fronto and it's so difficult not to envision two lines of ripping snow...but it's just so ehhh in the llvls

I will say this...there is a better chance of a widespread 3-6'' than Cole getting 9 years/$300+ million

Agreed...the discussion is what makes the board work. It's great to be able to read other's thoughts and reasoning's behind the forecast...it's how we all learn. After I create a forecast I like to read other's thoughts...you never know if perhaps if you overlooked something, missed something..may be placing too much/little emphasis. This field is driven by collaboration and sharing wealth of knowledge.

Oh sweet thanks! I never went into that section of city charts...just did so via the drop down menu in the model animator

Kraft does not approve

Really? I'll have to check it out. I loved the model animator before that upgrade...someone should be smacked for designing that

where the heck do you go on the site to get those?

That's sick!!! I'll have to start going there again. I used to like the page but since they did that face lift a few years ago I think it's been horrific...navigating between products and models and so forth...awful

I know the Euro does seem to increase QPF and total precip, however, I'm not totally sold on it. I think in these situations where we deal with a quick turnover, the QPF outputs become contaminated and end up being overdone. When I was looking at the Euro one thing I noticed regarding QPF was the majority of it seemed to fall prior and up to 12z Wednesday with not so much after that. One very difficult aspect here is the changeover probably starts occurring within the 6-hours between 6z and 12z...that's going to really throw a wrench in the QPF output. If certain things were different with this setup...I'd probably go somewhere along the lines of 6-12''+. Those mid/upper dynamics alone are about as impressive as you'll see...the lift in the mid/upper levels is going to be through the roof...but below that it's about as bad as you could want. IMO, it's that fronto zone which is going to deliver...and all indications are this will be extremely narrow...in fact, there may be even two focal areas of fronto...which would only further enhance subsidence/drying between them. Given how I think we have to rely on the fronto alone it's just for me to go on the higher side over a widespread area.

For Kevin... I will explain my step-by-step process with the forecast. I am not going to post any graphics b/c that will just eat up space. If I end up posing any it doesn't mean I am endorsing the model, just using it to illustrate what I'm saying. Mid/Upper Levels (700-250mb): Excellent jet dynamics with southern New England in a very favorable position with respect to jet streaks for upward vertical motion...and rather vigorous upward vertical motion which will be enhanced by positive vorticity advection and strong shortwave energy. Sufficient relative humidity and plenty of relative humidity with respect to ice (I'm not really sure how to explain that outside of how it's labeled on bufkit). Intense narrow zone of 700mb frontogenesis. Significance: All ingredients in place to generate clouds and the production of snow. Flag: Advection...where is the advection coming from? A WSW component to the streamlines (though some streamline convergence exists)...the key here is the component is more west than south. Why is this key? There is drier air to the west. This will ultimately advect in from the west (unless there was an off-setting force). Low-levels (925 to 700mb) Major red flags are in existence within the lowest 10,000 feet of the troposphere. These flags include a significant presence of dry air and subsidence. Significance: This is an extremely deep portion of the troposphere characterized drier air and subsidence. How is this going to influence things? IMO, we are not looking at very heft precipitation rates OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE FRONTO SETS UP...and I think this is east of CT (reasons for this are the intrusion of dry air and subsidence over our area...this is much less farther east which indicates where a boundary may be placed...boundary in this case the fronto). Whatever precipitation does fall has a tremendous way to travel before reaching the ground...having to fight both subsidence and dry air is not a good thing...especially if we can't even develop sufficient dendrites...which is a very real possibility here given the strongest lift is really not over us or in the SGZ. Wednesday morning, we'll see a radar which is very patchy and also misleading. Radar will suggest it's "snowing" somewhere but there will be a DBZ threshold needed for snow verification at the ground. Where the heavier echos are present is where you'll see snow...and a few things can happen from here... 1) Those localized areas are lucky and remain under those heavier echos or heavier echos develop over them or 2) These areas experience them but extremely brief This will be the difference between getting around a C to as much as 2-3''. But in terms of Wednesday morning radar coverage...this is exactly how I'm expecting it to look

Oh good. I was worried that front could hang around there for some time.

You can see this is just really going to come down to one narrow zone of fronto...where that happens (may very well be over the fish) is where 2-4'' of snow may fall. Outside of this zone of fronto it's just some snow showers making things slick for the AM commute

They think a cold pool in July has a chance to materialize into a snow event