weatherwiz

I love these probability graphics. Wish Cod would add these to their list of products.

ughhh yeah you're right. Introduces perhaps the possibility of some light (but maybe a tad prolonged) duration of FZDZ? What also has me worried here with part 1 and more robust totals is there really isn't much to keep the colder air locked in at the llvls...typically not a good signal for bigger thumps down in CT.

I think the NAM would even smoke much of CT with round 2. that's some pretty impressive frontogenesis which traverses the state in association the the CBD.

Sure has!! Unfortunately gaining weight has very little to do with just "eating food". My map I posted yesterday had 3-6'' for much of the state and 2-4'' along immediate shore...this just accounted for WAA snow though. I may update and include a 6-12'' zone up near the MA border.

It's the stupid POS ridiculous God awful should be wiped from model guidance snow maps which are leading to the stuff like "euro being the outlier" and "the notion of significant differences between the models". The upper-level features on the GFS and Euro...and all other guidance suggests a fairly robust storm here...while there are some differences in the surface evolution and what transpires post-WAA regime all models suggest robust activity Monday...obviously where depends on what many have already discussed. People are going to drool over the Euro showing 15-25''...call the GFS garbage b/c it only shows 10-15' and then be all upset and call the storm a bust b/c they didn't get 15-25'' and say the GFS "actually scored a win b/c it hit totals right"...when in reality all model guidance did a great job with this...just minor details in smaller-scale features.

I like the front end thump for us...it should rip for several hours Sunday afternoon.

This should be pinned in the thread lol...pretty perfect summation of how this will transpire.

It certainly is difficult...although I don't think it's impossible. I think the more difficult aspect perhaps is determining where the pivot point (if one occurs) occurs...that's when you get your axis of extreme totals. As it stands now...my wager would be that the best banding ends up either north of CT...or just into northern CT. One thing to keep in mind too that if there is going to be a region of extreme lift...there has to be a region of extreme subsidence...I know maybe it's too far out to look at details regarding bufkit but there are the signals of subsidence...if anything I think it can be more difficult to determine the subsidence aspect. But anyways...one thing I think we know for sure if the closer you get to the CT coast...the less snow you'll get lol.

How many states of emergencies do we usually get for snow

The gradient with this is going to be pretty significant. Where the banding traverses on Monday is going to produce some fairly hefty totals (like 10-16'' maybe?) but outside of the banding you'll probably see a huge drop off in totals. The mesoscale favored areas are going to cash in quite well. Not sure if we get into the higher-end of totals down here in CT...I can see perhaps extreme northern CT...perhaps to Kevin maybe getting into 8-12''. Probably update my map later this afternoon.

Took an early stab at a map for CT. Probably could have just did first call at work tomorrow but I'll be busy in the evening and most of Saturday (as usual). I am very intrigued by the WAA snow potential...some pretty solid lift and plenty of moisture. This only includes the WAA snow and not Monday's or phase two's output. Early thoughts are it's more rain or a mix here with major snows north

This should be a major snow event somewhere...just a matter of where. Potent 500mb energy like that and pretty favorable for cycolgenesis south of LI.

Actually that surge of WAA Sunday could be pretty decent...even here in CT. Could yield a several-hour period of some pretty heavy snow.

Where the secondary development occurs I think is more important than the overall track...also how quickly the intensification of the secondary occurs. As the main s/w moves southeast through the Ohio Valley to south of New England the whole system strengthens and a pretty strong southeasterly LLJ should flood in some mild air ahead of it. The key then is going to be having secondary development far enough south to where dynamic cooling will quickly cool the column...down to or pretty close to the CT coast. There should be a few bands of some pretty heavy snow...this setup is prime for at least one really solid band. Outside of this band (depending on the thermal profile) could be problematic with p-type and perhaps some subsidence. I kinda like Pike area...perhaps as far south as extreme northern CT for some decent snows (getting into warning criteria type stuff). I would think the baroclinic zone here is still going to be a bit farther north then it would be in another month which could hurt things for most of CT...also watching where H7 tracks b/c verbatim there could be some drier air as far north as central CT.

It's amazing how quickly you can lose those skills. Going through high school, I was pretty solid at math...at least in terms of algebra. I kick myself alot now b/c we were only required 3-years of math, but for my senior year I wanted to do more math so I took trig one semester and probability/statistics the last semester. Stupid me though didn't take it seriously and I just screwed around. Then I was out of school for 6+ years before I got back and all my algebra skills were gone. But you're 100% right...its needed to understand concepts and that's what I want to do. Statistics is highly useful and very interesting...if I at least don't re-take other math classes statistics is something I would not only do but take advanced stats classes.

HM on twitter has made mention a few times along with a few others...earthlight is another...can't think of the others off hand. It's highly fascinating, albeit challenging/frustrating. If we are able to discover what the true driver or what the drivers are I think the predictability will skyrocket. We do have an understanding of the drivers and what can drive patterns...but moreso of the "after the fact"...like if we were to look at 500 plot of the winter of 1975-1976 you could likely pretty easily determine what the drivers were...but it's gauging what the drivers will be moving forward which possess the greatest challenge...I mean there are times where it is obvious (a rather strong ENSO event, for example). What I'm just going to focus on for now is Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation and then try and branch off from that. Much o the research is conflicting as to whether its the stratosphere which drives the troposphere or vice versa...however, there are some interesting papers (just read one) which states otherwise and provides some overwhelming data.

I'm not all that afraid of really saying I have zero clue what I'm talking about...doesn't do me any good...or anyone else good pretending to know what you're talking about. There was a time when I was crazy interested in this sort of stuff and I thought going back to school would have helped significantly and I could have continued learning more...just the exact opposite happened. There seems to be alot of talk/interest in the time period...or shortly after for another major shift in the pattern which could result in another surge of cold into the U.S. The pattern relaxes for a bit, re-loads, and boom...a big blast of cold.

that's what that is?

Low sun angle

This is cool...found daily EP Flux animations on the ESRL page. Guess it won't animate here but that's a nice upward flux...reading about them too. Hopefully something like this will continue moving forward.

Not if the leaves are frozen to the ground

This is pretty cool to see. I also wonder if this bodes well moving forward. Seems like the theme since early fall as been for these positive height anomalies to strengthen between 180-120W over the Arctic region and that has been some big time warmth at 10 hPa which has developed. It does look like this will relax a bit but maybe watch that area around 50E...perhaps that's what is triggering some of the responses we're seeing near Thanksgiving?

could be some decent icing up north...wow. I want a damaging ice storm

Me too He's done incredible for himself...he is the definition of genius. His programming skills alone...I would kill to learn programming like that...or even to know how to come up with algorithms and indices...like he developed the MQI and used EOF's...zero clue how to even begin with that. If so I could probably do that construction of bi-weekly NAO/AO/PNA data from the daily numbers lol.

I've been thinking of re-taking math classes...starting from algebra and then working all the way back up to differential equations...anyone else ever consider this? I'm just not certain it's worth it though. I think math is one of those things that you either just get or you don't. But I'm extremely weak (and continue to get worse) with math and feel like I don't remember even basic algebra anymore b/c I just don't use it. Maybe do some online classes?