weatherwiz

Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill.

social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad.

It's creeping

This is actually very true

A combination of all sources...here + social media. It's been known for years that across all weather platforms individuals who aren't in the camp of snow/cold get ridiculed. Some of the big time posters from here left b/c of being attached (mainly in NYC threads) anytime they would post something that was against such scenarios. If you follow twitter closely it happens there too...folks that do alot with long-range any time they are not going cold/snow people jump all over them.

They have added some awesome MJO and ENSO re-analysis and regression products over the past several years...I feel like they've really stepped it up quite a bit with their seasonal forecasting products/research. Were they involved with the AAM data/research or was that another division? It's a shame the individuals who were doing research and providing plots/data retired and they had nobody to take over.

I wonder too what the process is behind their seasonal outlooks...do they have folks who specialize in seasonal outlooks or are they mostly derived from long-range seasonal forecast models? I've always been under the impression it is the later.

when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers

It makes since how we are running below-average for precipitation this winter given we're below-average in terms of snow. Isn't there a pretty decent positive correlation to precipitation/snowfall departures across our parts? Then as you get like to PHL on south the correlation to snowfall is more related to temperature departures? Like we can still get above-average snowfall with temperatures a bit above-average but go to PHL...very tough to do

No

Going to be pretty sick

Wtf looking forward to tomorrows convection

Looks like marginal expanded slightly. I think dews only in the 40's might be the main cause. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal expanded...perhaps not into SNE but into PA and parts of NJ

If you post them here and then pin the thread you'll be able to view them more easily you need to add the upside down smiley to the list of emojis.

I wish dewpoints were just a bit higher...even lower 50's could do some wonders

Time to pin the severe thread!!!

Will likes to poke his head in when we get big severe wx setups

I am expecting marginal risk to be placed into SNE with a slight risk where the marginal is now.

dendrite gets his wish

A vigorous piece of shortwave energy approaches late Wednesday associated with a strengthening MLJ in excess of 100 knots along with a strengthening LLJ. A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the sfc low combined with a plume of WAA/theta-e will help yield sufficient elevated instability to yield the development of a low topped squall line southwest of southern New England. conditions favor this line to move through New England during the overnight hours yielding the potential for small hail and damaging winds.

They're going to get smoked with LES in SW NY

We’ll have more pollen accumulation in spring than we did snow

We tried to tell em

time to crank Plains severe wx season...hopefully in time for my journey out west. Get the Plains hot at the end of May and then it rolls right into the Northeast for June and July. Summer of 2020 can be called the summer of damage

That's absolutely absurd...beyond highway robbery and just taking advantage of people. That's pushing $750 a month. This state is pure garbage.