I'm hanging out with this girl today and I told her about the elevated mixed-layer and how we're going to get nasty storms and she is down to go and watch them come in!!!
probably should see a nasty line that moves into western/central MA and down through western/central CT into SE NY and into NJ. I will be in the Danbury area too!
If there are any discrete cells today we can't totally rule out a strong tornado somewhere. LCL's are on the high side, however, which could limit that a bit but some of the forecast hodographs are quite impressive.
How often do you see QLCS tornadoes track that long of a distance? It’s extremely rare...especially around these parts. Remember the day of the fake Rolland tornado? There was a series of tornadoes which was counted as multiple tornadoes but in realty it was just one cell which produced multiple times?
It also seems on days with EML advection we clear out not only rather easily but clear out quite nicely. That's just probably b/c of the degree of mid-level dry air associated with it though lol.
Quite impressed by the 18z NAM thus far. Even looks a bit more backed with sfc flow. Hodos are not as straight...actually long and curved. Looks like (guessing maybe warm front?) some boundary is like right overhead.