weatherwiz

I don't think comparisons to previous events is really justifiable. Each setup is rather unique. If you're looking to compare you would have to find a previous event in which the synoptics match quite well (this is extremely important in this situation given the role the ULJ is playing here) and find some similarities within the mesoscale...such as the profile of the lower atmosphere. How many events like this do we see in which an inversion is very weak or even non-existent (though I don't think you can use non-existent b/c there has to be some sort of inversion involved) and how many tropical systems give us the tornado threat we have...at the end of the day the TOR threat is probably the biggest out of any threat. The damaging wind threat can't be overlooked either...yes 50-60 knots may not sound "exciting" but winds of that magnitude over a widespread area with fully leaved trees is going to cause issues...don't be fooled about the "fast" nature or "brief" period of these winds...in fact, winds can be maximized when the forward speed of a system is very fast (one of the culprits which made the 38 hurricane damage even worse).

Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX

yeah I think the majority of the state sees gusts above 50 mph for a few hours later. Plus the risk for tornadoes.

Wow...we're now looking at 200 J of 3km CAPE with forecasts upward of 225J now.. Getting sufficient breaks of sun too...while mlvl lapse rates are garbage dews in the mid-to-upper 70's will drive CAPE even further. MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG with effective helicity approaching 200+ m2s2. Violent tornado parameter as high as 5-6 to our southwest. llvl jet ramping up over CT over the next few hours. This is going to be ugly later

I should have clarified but by strong I was getting at EF2 type stuff possible. But yeah, I agree...I also think perhaps that stuff may arrive a bit too early but looks like dews in southern CT are a bit higher and 3km CAPE is the same or slightly greater. Guess it's just a matter of does shear increase further before they arrive

Yeah my main concern is the amount of CAPE within the lowest 3km which is also where shear is maximized. Plus you're talking about LCL's ~500m which strong tornadoes become much more of a possibility when LCL's are below 750m. Violent tornado parameter is also at a 2 in CT

Yeah I would say perhaps a 3-4 hour window of the strongest winds...but I wouldn't let that fool you. That's still a relatively large period when you factor in the trees are fully leaved. My concern is we see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms when those winds are rather brief. What would an extended period do?

What do you think the prospects are for the potential of a strong tornado? I know they're exceedingly rare with tropical cyclones...and we know how rare strong tornadoes are in New England, but with the LLJ ramping up like that and about to overlap where 3km CAPE values are approaching 200 J/KG and given the size of the hodographs...I have to think it's a possibility. Perhaps the limiting factor is we aren't using a larger portion of the troposphere...would probably need some really deep convection but you get a discrete cell ahead of this stuff...there's an awful lot to utilize.

pretty nice couplet just north of Dublin, PA

the threat decreases in northern New England...moisture pinches off in southern New england which means we will have a rather robust theta-e gradient. Also we'll see a CAPE axis traverse the region. NJ into southern CT prime spot for tornadoes today...even farther inland

I don't think we will see an enhanced go much farther north really...maybe moreso of southern CT but the next update is 12:30...that may be kinda late but I suppose it's posible. Well I can't really travel since I'm working but it's impossible to chase tornadoes in tropical systems...and extremely dangerous. Not sure I'd do it

THOUGHT WE WOULD SEE ENHANCED!!!!!!

I would watch this pocket extremely closely. It's just ahead of the line with TOR warnings in DE. You get 2-6km lapse rates around 8 to overlap when that LLJ cranks and we're getting 50-70 mph gusts

Bufkit is legit the best...I don't see how anyone can really forecast without it. It's great too b/c you can manipulate mixing depth. For the most part I find bufkit extremely accurate with winds...though sometimes I think the GFS can tend to be a bit overdone b/c it always seems to go mix happy but OTOH, the NAM I think tends to under-do mixing lol.

Wow...don't think I've ever seen "high" for a tornado watch here...although maybe 5/15/18 had it

And there's the tornado watch

certainly some weak mesos. We probably have another couple hours I'd say before things get really interesting with them.

The HRRR continues to advertise widespread 50-60 knots of wind traversing the state (CT) later today. There seems to be quite a bit of other model support as well. Not only is there model support but soundings and the environment seem to support this as well. I would expect there is going to be widespread tree damage/power outages across the state later. Some will be without power for several days

Tornado Watch coming

looking pretty impressive with nearly 200 J of 3km CAPE being modeled for later

Thankfully it's getting closer to landfall so not sure how much room there is for strengthening, however, I guess you couldn't rule out some additional strengthening as it interacts with that ULJ.

NHC did a special advisory. Up to 85 mph

If that is legit we are in for some big trouble

ummm hello