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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    I don't think we will see an enhanced go much farther north really...maybe moreso of southern CT but the next update is 12:30...that may be kinda late but I suppose it's posible. Well I can't really travel since I'm working but it's impossible to chase tornadoes in tropical systems...and extremely dangerous. Not sure I'd do it
  2. weatherwiz
    THOUGHT WE WOULD SEE ENHANCED!!!!!!
  3. weatherwiz
    I would watch this pocket extremely closely. It's just ahead of the line with TOR warnings in DE. You get 2-6km lapse rates around 8 to overlap when that LLJ cranks and we're getting 50-70 mph gusts
  4. weatherwiz
    Bufkit is legit the best...I don't see how anyone can really forecast without it. It's great too b/c you can manipulate mixing depth. For the most part I find bufkit extremely accurate with winds...though sometimes I think the GFS can tend to be a bit overdone b/c it always seems to go mix happy but OTOH, the NAM I think tends to under-do mixing lol.
  5. weatherwiz
    Wow...don't think I've ever seen "high" for a tornado watch here...although maybe 5/15/18 had it
  6. weatherwiz
    And there's the tornado watch
  7. weatherwiz
    certainly some weak mesos. We probably have another couple hours I'd say before things get really interesting with them.
  8. weatherwiz
    The HRRR continues to advertise widespread 50-60 knots of wind traversing the state (CT) later today. There seems to be quite a bit of other model support as well. Not only is there model support but soundings and the environment seem to support this as well. I would expect there is going to be widespread tree damage/power outages across the state later. Some will be without power for several days
  9. weatherwiz
    Tornado Watch coming
  10. weatherwiz
    looking pretty impressive with nearly 200 J of 3km CAPE being modeled for later
  11. weatherwiz
    Thankfully it's getting closer to landfall so not sure how much room there is for strengthening, however, I guess you couldn't rule out some additional strengthening as it interacts with that ULJ.
  12. weatherwiz
    NHC did a special advisory. Up to 85 mph
  13. weatherwiz
  14. weatherwiz
    If that is legit we are in for some big trouble
  15. weatherwiz
    ummm hello
  16. weatherwiz
    Should this verify there is going to be some widespread damage with a few embedded tornadoes
  17. weatherwiz
    extrapolated SLP of 985mb found
  18. weatherwiz
    First two of 2020 for CT! Let's add several more tomorrow
  19. weatherwiz
    There goes our jet streak. Should continue to strengthen
  20. weatherwiz
    Wow hurricane winds a bit far into the NE part
  21. weatherwiz
    Yeah for sure...probably could extend that area to Long Island and southern CT...maybe even a bit farther inland into CT. If we do see gusts 60-70 mph...even if that magnitude only lasts a couple hours...that's going to do significant damage given the fully leaved trees. I mean look at what 50-60 mph winds do during thunderstorms here and those winds maybe last for what...a few minutes? I guess thankfully the ground is dry
  22. weatherwiz
    21z RPM actually hints at hurricane-force winds possible along the NJ coast. Actually is a bit impressive with winds well inland across CT. But why does the scale max out at 50 knots?
  23. weatherwiz
    well recon's first pass was impressive...hurricane force winds
  24. weatherwiz
    yes but we're talking about with tropical...it's exceedingly rare to get a ENH with a tropical system b/c the main threat is tornadoes and you would need a 10% TOR contour to get ENH and that doesn't happen very often
  25. weatherwiz
    I can only recall a couple times over the past several years where it's happened. I think it actually may have occurred last season? Maybe it was with Michael
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