weatherwiz

Deep Thunder?

sounds to me like you're the doctor...and doing the exam wrong

Some good news... the GFS is now into mid-February at the end of it's run...so in about 15-days it will be into March and then there will only be ONE FULL MONTH to go in the model world until May!!!

I should have been clearer...I was referring to the idea that phasing is harder. I've always wondered something about the Coriolis forcing and there is another equation or two (think one of them is the vorticity equation) but when you do scale analysis you "negate" terms which have a larger scale of magnitude b/c it is said that term is "negligible"...I wonder if even know its negligible if it actually still holds some degree of importance and perhaps if incorporated into these equations would maybe help with accuracy.

Wow that's a substantial difference..this northern stream is really giving the models a workout

If only more were as level headed as you

This is exactly what it is...excellent post. The way social media works in the weather world is if you post about cold/snow happening...you'll get thousands of likes, shares, interactions, and follows. Meanwhile, those who don't hype and explain the situation exactly at is may only get several likes and minimal interaction.

but wasn't it only one run? The one thing which has been constant this entire week of tracking was the flow was going to be progressive and when that's the case it's going to be very difficult to get an end result of northern stream assistance. Sometimes the gun gets jumped too quickly on just one model run...whether it be an OP or EPS. For example, if all of a sudden the EPS switched tunes next week everyone would start jumping towards cold/snow b/c this one run showed it...then after the EPS jumps back from this idea instead of realizing it was a blip everyone still acts as if there was hope b/c this one run said so

At this juncture I highly doubt we're getting any assistance from the northern stream...which never seemed highly likely anyways. The flow is just too progressive. Sure there have been hints at more northern stream involvement...but they've been just that...hints. There was never any major support or backing from this possibility outside of "if x happens then y will occur".

This type of stuff pisses me off... why even post a comparison to March of 1993 if you're going to say "oh but its unlikely" This happens on twitter a ton...there will be a post "Oh here's the GFS solution and snow map for D11 showing potential for 20-30''...but it's extremely unlikely to happen" Like what's the point of the post??? This does nothing but create hype and create a false sense...it's garbage like this which is leading the public to lose faith in meteorologists. I have a friend who is in the landscaping business and he is very in-tune with the weather...checks information across all platforms, asks for my feedback, and he'll show me stuff which he comes across and he says to me...he talks to alot of people in the business (landscaping) and they get pissed when they come across information like that.

Can't believe I missed this post! I am thrilled for what you have had to say as it reinforces much of what I had sort of noted myself. That's also great information about the difference between top and bottom number...I think I used to use the top number quite a bit for gusts then started realizing it was a bit too aggressive so had started going with the bottom number. What I've found seem to find with bufkit is I don't think it handles winds out west very well. Some cities I forecast for are Oakland, CA, Ontario, CA, and Carlsbad, CA and just today I saw the HWW in Ontario and my forecasts for winds are way, way, way off

I kinda disagree...there are times when I totally understand "bashing" forecast models but I don't think that is appropriate in this situation. Every single process involved in this potential was highly complex...perhaps one of the more complex scenarios you'll see. It's almost impossible to expect forecast models to 1) handle a situation like this well 2) show consistency (both run-to-run and model-to-model). When you have a progressive flow, numerous pieces of embedded s/w energy, potential for any type of phasing, and questions with how the pattern will evolve...which is based on numerous other factors...the forecast models just aren't going to do exceptionally well.

Not even February yet and it's already 61 pages

yeah that's becoming a bit more interesting. I would watch out sometime next week (and a period where models don't show anything)...if that ejects there is opportunity to coincide with some northern stream energy.

0PPD is preferred

yeah I don't think there is anyway possible you could forecast something that obscene months out...unless of course you had a blaring signal like in 2018.

yeah your December call was pretty damn good...I was real excited after December (especially since BDL pulled off like 26'') but we just couldn't keep it going.

I would take it. I don't have the whole snowpack fetish so I'm completely fine with getting pounded with snow and then having it go away in a few days. When snow starts piling up it leads to more hassle than it's worth

Nice...good call. Seems like that's exactly what is happening. I think I've read around some saying this happening earlier in winter...unless I completely misread. Hell maybe we'll have a blockbuster March...not totally unrealistic and it happened as recently as two years ago

that's not terrible. I see what you mean though about after the first week of February. That's quite the significant change. Now...whether that is valid remains to be seen.

I believe that is correct. I just looked at QBO numbers and indeed that does fit the notion for a +AO. (Also the zonal wind map posted verifies +QBO). I do remember reading some outlooks talking about the QBO descending to easterly...so many that didn't happen as thought? Or there is a (mis)conception that it becoming less positive over time would favor blocking...lol...like a weenie wish cast (ohhh yeah the QBO is westerly...but it's becoming less westerly so blocking)

what's 500 look like? Just judging from that but looks like a gradient-type pattern could setup?

It's really hard to see any assistance from the stratosphere or PV at this juncture so we'll have to get help somewhere else. The stratosphere above the Arctic looks rather cold with the PV on the strong side. If zonal winds around 50mb can relax a bit perhaps that can assist with the PV displacing south...but they've been pretty strong this month: I wish there was more information available regarding the QBO. What's become apparently obvious with the QBO (and just like any other measure of variability) is it's the structure of the wind anomalies and how they're propagating/descending. So while a raw look at the number may have provided hope for some assistance from blocking perhaps the overall structure argued against it.

That is probably the final chance to drastically change things. If we get closer and that is delayed further it will become very difficult to make things happen in time. The signal for changes in the Pacific have seemed to be pretty consistent, however, the Arctic is not really cooperating...which kinda sucks b/c based on some of the changes in the Pacific we don't need a ton of changes in the Arctic but the look doesn't seem very appealing. Hopefully with the MJO signal weakening that will jump start changes.

I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada.