weatherwiz

12z GFS doesn't appear to be as robust with severe potential in the south...particularly around LA ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

It happens quite a bit on twitter from hobbyists and I'm sure I've seen other meteorologists say it too lol. I want to count how many times I hear people say it this weekend...will be fun

If you have at least some background of weather you should know not to make that connection...it's much more understandable for the general public to say that.

I want to throw my phone everytime I see this mentioned on twitter. I think this is a good time for a twitter rant on this subject

Where's @OceanStWx I actually don't know a whole lot about Mexican EML's but I think they're different than EML's originated in the southwest U.S. Obviously the processes are the same but I wonder what the differences are between Mexican EML and southwest US EML.

Actually what could make things really interesting in the south is it looks like there is a pretty decent EML that advects in from the Mexican Plateau. Remember that sounding game we were playing months back? Time to play it again...that's a pretty solid sounding for December...anywhere in the country. Could be an early start to the severe Monday morning across LA...I could see tornadic supercells initiating quickly then becoming linear and producing a damaging squall line through TN and GA!!!!

I'm pretty intrigued by the severe weather potential Monday....especially down in LA where initiation looks to begin...best chance for supercells initially...have to see how quickly the llvl flow backs.

I think I may actually remember that...didn't that really crush Litchfield County and NW HFD cty? hey...that winter was solid...I think BDL had like 93''

The cut-off was pretty crazy too...going from Branford to North Branford was nothing to ice on all the trees and wires

CT just missed out in 2008. I don't remember the 2005 one...not sure why. The 2017 was pretty decent..wasn't far off from being a pretty significant deal. I remember the 1998 one quite well...that was fun

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

I thought I read something a few months back that the initialization process on the 6z/18z (Euro) was slightly different than the 0z/12z...like minor tweaks with parameterization. I'll have to see if I can find it.

just slap on some green, crank open an IPA, and all it a day

all of them lol

Do you know how warm BDL got Tuesday? I know it took a while for the warmer air to move up into that area. I think they finally pushed well into the 40's? But when I was getting home like 7:00ish there was some pretty damn dense fog. Then again...when you got like 15'' or whatever from a storm it takes a bit to melt...especially considering the fact that all the snow gets piled up further with snow removal

I still have a decent snow depth in Windsor Locks...probably a good at least a good 6-8'' on the ground.

I agree here

Well I guess this is what happens with the vitamin D levels start getting low

It will be fun to get to track some severe wx Monday!!!

sorry man but I have to disagree. 1) the euro is not a Miller B. 2) Saying the Euro trended towards the GFS (or even if it was the GFS trending towards the Euro) is pretty insignificant...that's alluding to and indicating that "the one model is correct". This is still in the time range where forecast models can be very chaotic and susceptible to massive anomalies. While there are signals and have been signals for a much colder pattern around this time...it's not entirely set in stone yet. This period does seem highly volatile (volatile here virtually referring to the changes which are forecast to begin occurring across the PAC) but that doesn't necessarily correlate to a storm. We can easily see these models relax with this notion of the PV lobe being displaced at our latitude...that's virtually going to be the driver at this stage as to whether or not we get this cold or set up with a storm chance. I don't think EPO/PNA/NAO fields are in favor yet to be the driver for displacing cold.

Monday has potential too for a rather impressive severe wx event in the Gulf coast...could have potential for several tornadic supercells

Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow. Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol

gas cans exploding

GFS gets coastal CT to 50 lol...don't think so with that track. Plenty of room too for this to get more juiced. Pretty good jet dynamics and nice developing jet streak

A little concerning right now for down this way in that aspect...GFS is way too quick to warm here.