weatherwiz

b/c it's a ridiculous method designed to enhance the wet dreams of weenies. yeah let's multiply a snowfall ratio by model QPF and call it a snow forecast....woohoooooo

GFS for BDL. That's a pretty good period of moderate-to-heavy snow for sure

slant sticking?

It's the equivalent to spring training or training camp...build up the mindset towards severe and and discussing past events (this is the practice) to fine tune skills before the season starts

Probably soon time to start the countdown to May 1st thread...and this year's is extra special since I'm 95% confident in going to OK!!!!!!!!! This is what I'm thinking for CT. 3-4'' for most

Was pleasantly surprised when I walked out the door this morning to see a coating of snow on the grass and my car!

This always becomes a big question in these setups. We've seen times before where models are aggressive with this notion only to back off in the final 24-36 hours. We've also seen times where they become more impressive as we get closer. Part of me feels the degree of lift is being underplayed. I know we're far removed from the main low and the shortwave doesn't look very favorable, however, there are ways to compensate for that. If dynamic cooling is occurring (which still seems to be the case) that would indicate air that is rising rather rapidly. In this case we see a temperature response at 850/925 of cooling during the day Saturday...meanwhile in the mid-levels the delta T's are not as impressive...this would indicate there should be increasing frontogenesis over our area...I would think. My wager is we see models ramp up a bit with lift as we get closer.

There is probably very little room to get much more than 6 or 7'' unless something crazy happens and mlvl lift is much stronger. One thing I also kinda like is I don't think the precip shield will be all blotchy...it should be a nice consolidated area of precip.

I might go with 3-6'' across the northern half of CT...this isn't a terrible look. At least you're getting the best lift into the DGZ. I know there is the suspicion of using snow rations far out but I still think snow ratios are going to be pretty solid...certainly better than the usual 8:1 to 10:1 and I think that needs to be really taken into account here with potential totals...if the ratios were going to be poop..1-3'' to 2-4'' I would certainly see. The big key is going to be a very small window when we get some pretty solid lift...it's this small window where the snow ratios are going to be maximized and we'll see snowfall rates around 1.5''/HR. Maybe this doesn't occur over a widespread area but there will be some localized areas which perform well.

The signal has been there for a while and the models are starting to handle it along with its implications But this isn’t a typical SWFE. I want to start building up a database of events so only have memory to go by but when you look or think back at previous SWFE’s which have over performed one glaring thing in common was how cold the air mass is ahead of it. it’s not like we’re toasting the mid levels here...it’s pretty damn cold when the best forcing/precip arrive. The question is just do we have enough lift into the DGZ to maximize snow ratios...that’s the only question here...nothing thermal profile related. I don’t have my laptop fired up to see what 18z GFS Bufkit shows but 12z Bufkit at BDL had decent lift into the SGZ. if that verifies we get a 3-HR period of 1.5-2”/HR rates or so. The majority of this snow will be fluff

And we will continue with the colder trend.

The most important thing to take from the 18z NAM/GFS is that they continue with the theme of dynamic cooling. The biggest key is if we can maximize ratios...if we do I think wi widespread swath of 4-7” is very likely away from the immediate coast.

Here's GFS at BDL. That's some nice thumping. Probably a good 1.5''/hr type stuff...if ratios verify maybe spitting near 2

I'm not even overly sold about secondary development...or at least anything of significance...maybe some weak circulation but the main low is so strong and not sure the structure of the energy or dynamics support it.

Unless the signal for strengthening dynamics goes away I would expect models to continue with a colder look. I think there is alot favoring dynamic cooling here and dynamic layer lifting.

That is the key word here! This also isn't a typical SWFE. I think at this stage the probability for such a scenario occurring is high enough to not discount it and even high enough to lean towards that direction.

Kinda doing so I think you can see how the strongest of the WAA sort of struggles to get in here...almost kinda weakens but it remains very strong to our SW which is pretty perfect actually. Also, I wonder if dynamic cooling may be a factor here...those dynamics in the llvls really crank up. 850's actually cool moving towards Saturday evening and the progression of the 0C line sorta of halts..

Certainly agree...will really depend on where the lift is. I'm trying to think back to some of the previous examples in which ratios ended up slightly higher in these set ups...then sort of go back and do a quick re-analysis. But yeah...it's all going to be tied into lift.

I'm trying to remember this but when it comes to advecting temperatures faster (speaking aloft here so in this case 850)...isn't a major factor how winds are crossing the isoheights? If winds are more perpendicular to isoheights that would actually slow down the progression of WAA...no matter how strong the winds are?

Bufkit was spitting out some pretty solid ratios to begin...I think sometimes bufkit can be a little off with them but it makes sense that ratios will be higher than typical. If we are able to get some great lift into the DGZ while ratios are maximized that's when a few may really be able to cash in. There is still plenty of room to go go in either direction here...either quickly transitioning or colder air locked in a bit more depending on secondary development.

My initial thoughts at least for northern CT are within the 4-7''/5-8'' range. Normally wouldn't do that for a SWFE but this one is a bit different. Seems like these have a tendency to overperform some when we have these pretty cold air masses in place out ahead of them. One reason for that being is I think snow ratios actually tend to be a bit higher than what is assumed or expected. To me the two keys are; 1) How "intense" the precipitation shield is as it's arriving...this I don't think should be a problem given how everything is favorable for large-scale lift. 2) Whether the WAA is intensifying...which seems to be the case on the models. That will only enhance precipitation and precipitation rates. I'm thinking snow rations 15:1 or so...maybe slightly higher?

I think by the time the warmer air arrives the majority of the precipitation is done. If there is anything that we've learned from these types of set-ups is we really don't zero-in on the most likely outcome until we're within 24-36 hours. While obviously there are some flags at hand one thing I really love to see is the expansion and strengthening of the WAA as the nose of the WAA arrives...dynamics look to favor large-scale lift with pretty strong convergence in the llvls. Snow levels should be pretty dang good too...at least to begin. Wouldn't be surprised to see 15-18:1.

Been a signal for a while now that eventually the Pacific was going to begin changing and we'll eventually get higher heights into the PNA region...and in an area which would lead to favorable downstream developments...couple this with the hints of ridging still in AK and we open up the flood gates for much colder air masses and a stormy pattern. Conditions for cyclogenesis would finally become more favorable much farther south and east instead of north and west. Still just a question of when these changes occur though...the signal is very strong but the ball is slowly starting to roll

I would think the dynamics argue for a stronger primary this weekend, however, that doesn't necessarily correlate to flooding of warmer air...still plenty of discrepancies regarding the exact track and that may make the ultimate difference. All in all this is looking like a rather dynamic and intense storm with a wide range of impacts. One of the more concerning issues may be how H7 evolves and tracks.

Both the euro and GFS have a 130+ knot MLJ streak rounding the base of that energy...that's pretty ridiculous. There's def going to be some p-type issues somewhere but whoever stays snow is going to get creamed. Too bad it isn't a slow mover, but someone could see 3-4 hours of 3-4''/hr rates.