weatherwiz

the best sound in the world is the pinging of sleet in Tolland

This deserves a and at the same time

WTH has been wrong with this page? It's been horrific the past several months https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.all.php#bottom Thank God for this https://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php

QPF shouldn't be a problem with this system (which hopefully will work out to our benefit) but take a look at the individual members for 12z and 18z Saturday...just all over the place. Really tough to generate any sort of idea right now on what to expect. Very true. All the reason why I think in this situation you have to be careful with using just an EPS mean.

but it's not a good thing to see..it can not only skew the mean but pretty much make the mean useless.

The individual EPS members are all over the place

Feb 06 half my snow totals fell in about 3-hours (13'' out of 26 or 27). 2013 too...like 14'' or 15'' in 3 hours or 4 hours.

I can't wait until convective season begins...at least those pan out. and note I did NOT say severe...I said convection.

I'm actually pretty pumped not to see any major storm signals in the long-range...seems like we do well when something pops up around the D5-6 timeframe instead of 240-hours out. But at the rate we're going...pretty soon the D11-15 period will be looking for 70's and 80's!!!

From what I read not long ago it's still a bias, though not as extreme as it used to be.

I know they've made some incredible strides into their layout and structure...just did some browsing around and the site has really become much more user friendly and it looks like navigation between products/models is rather simple too. That's another factor into the whole wide options of models available...if you have to spend a ton of time navigating or exploring to find products...it gets annoying and too time consuming. But Pivotal looks like it really makes it easier to do all of this.

that's one of the questions I try and ask myself...does what is being presented make sense but sometimes I don't get very far as I still struggle with a stronger understanding

I completely agree.

not really...just not enough time. I like to spend a ton of time looking at each model and do the best I can to understand what's going on within each and then run through a list of questions in my head. I don't bother to just glance b/c that does nothing too me...it's super easy to just look at one product of a model (like SLP and QPF) but you're not really answering any questions. If I can't devote a certain amount of time to analyzing then to me its not really worth it.

I just stick with NAM, GFS, and Euro...otherwise it just gets too complex and confusing. Anyways in the case of this upcoming weekend's event I'm just really focusing on how the models are handling the potential evolution of the pattern. With all these shortwaves, shortwave troughs, and pieces of energy involved we're going to get a million different sfc projections between now and the end of the week and they're all really meaningless anyways...unless of course we start getting a better handle on just what s/w or two will be the main focus. Given this seems largely phase dependent we could see the next 10 solutions show all snow, rain, fish storm, cutter...wouldn't really matter

There are way too many computer forecast models out there. It's nearly impossible to analyze each and every one...at least to the degree which is needed to construct the most accurate/logical forecast you can make. Just too much data/information to consume.

95 days to go!!! Will be doing a countdown post every Monday morning. Will also be incorporating one or two or five posts per week dedicated to a previous convective event.

Is this legal to post? At least they agree on the idea of ridge/trough

I was actually going to get into that in my post...was reading a bit about that on a MedEd module a bit back. I think this explains (partly) the famous D10 "fantasy" storms that arise.

I do have some fear for amped solutions. Makes me a little nervous seeing where the Euro/GFS sharpen the trough and how both advertise a rather significant MLJ streak rounding the base of the trough and where this occurs. Really too far out to be overly concerned about but is this can happen just a tad later our chances increase a bit

I think they make sense for short-range (inside 96-hours) but not outside that. it just really adds further confusing instead of clarification. That's an excellent point. I think in the perfect world, the thought that higher resolution with more data inputs would result in far more accurate forecasts, however, that doesn't necessarily seem to be the case. With how complicated and complex the atmosphere in incorporating more variables just results in a more complex and highly variable results. Even in the short-term we've seen some drastic changes...especially with larger-scale features.

that might be congrats PA but seriously...and not just with this system but just overall...there have been times of enormous differences between the two. I totally understand the time frame we're dealing with but with technology and modeling supposedly becoming better diversions just keep getting worse. Perhaps they need to start canning some models, get rid of running them 4x per day and re-prioritize the focus in improving them.

Staggering differences between Euro/GFS...almost laughable really.

Then the stupid snow maps came along. There are people who will post total snowfall through 384-HR TO ILLUSTRATE WHAT TYPE OF PATTERN MAY BE....WTF????????

the euro actually has been pretty consistent with those little pockets of CAPE moving overhead