weatherwiz

Hopefully we can continue to keep punching above-average height anomalies into Greenland and into the Arctic region. The big key regarding the SSW too is the structure of the pattern in the upper troposphere and what's already in place. Maybe the SSW would be responsible, or a driver, into plunging colder air back into Canada and perhaps eventually our way, but if the North American pattern is kinda garbage preceding the SSW...it may not be much help for us. What I really like is the signal for a major ridge to become established across the eastern Pacific...very similar to what we actually saw much of the summer and fall. There also continue to be signals for higher pressure around Greenland and if that can remain the case and be strong the PV should get attacked and weakened. Question: Looking at 18z GFS ~200hr...is that classified as a wave-2 or wave-3 pattern?

meh only on the grassy surfaces

Do you know what county was hit hardest? From the times I looked it actually looked like Litchfield County had the most outages

Around 36K for peak in CT

But there is also a difference and this is something that also needs to be communicated better within these type of events. How common were these gusts? Common as in; 1) Were they more on a widespread scale or more localized? 2) Were these gusts common in the sense as they occurred frequently or was it something that happened to occur once at a specific location? This is another differentiator between the bigger events and the more mundane events. When we see the events produce we are seeing constant 60+ mph over the course of several hours...not just one gust tied into a convective band moving through.

It was a very tough forecast for sure. If I was coming off angry about the higher wind forecasts I apologize as that was not my intention at all. This really just goes to show how important communication is and how important it is to clearly communicate. But I never try to come across that way and I love hearing input from everyone and discussing the science behind everything. For this event, I didn't think we would see widespread significant wind gusts (60-70), but there were certainly a few more than I thought as well. This was also tied into that fine line of convection which really helped with these higher end wind gusts. I also agree, these torched low-levels and higher sfc dews would be a pretty strong indicator for higher-end wind gusts but the lapse rates were just horrific and I recall this being a huge differentiator between widespread higher-end wind potential and more localized higher-end gusts. Even going through so many bufkit profiles and playing around with the mixing layer depth...it was real tough to find consistent mixing drawing down super strong winds and I thought that was a big flag.

Strong to get some gusty CAA winds now. Bye-bye warmth

same here and with all the preparations made hopefully restorations will go very quickly.

Don't know what the peak was but highest I saw for customers without power in CT was just over 33K...down to just under 22K. Hopefully this will come down quickly.

I remember seeing something similar I think out in CO once. Took me forever of searching to figure out what it was. gahhhh

I think its something making the radar more sensitive...bugging me now lol

That's just something funky with the radar site I think. Seen it before but forget what it is.

Each run of the HRRR becomes slightly less enthused with max wind gusts overnight/early AM

looks like a possible TDS SW of clinton

Now I see...issued at 2:20 PM. Took forever to populate...didn't see it. Usually these things pop up on the mesoanalysis page but it hasn't.

how many tornado warnings are going to be issued before a watch is issued???

This is actually something that is violently underrated and communicated in these situations. Can be very disastrous.

glad we don't live there

finally starting to see the back edge of the precipitation shield transition over to a wintry mix/snow

Already a TOR down in NC

Well it's been quite a while since we've had a major ice storm. Thus far we had Isaias, tornado event/RFD induced damage, parts of the state nailed by the serial derecho, widespread 10-12'' snowstorm, let's put 2020 on....ice

I wonder if there is a small window to develop some discrete convection ahead of the main rain shield. There are subtle hints this is possible. Those 3km CAPE values aren't too terrible but it is also possible the shear is just too strong and those value might not be enough for updrafts to fully establish...or at least not enough to utilize the dynamics.

Part of it too is I think they've probably been heavily briefed on this for several days. I mean this storm signal has been there for a week. They've certainly had plenty of lead time

Yeah definitely becoming more of a concern. And this is why I was more conservative with thoughts on wind...but if this convection does verify with that leading dry slot we are screwed...well especially out your way. There is some possibility though that the majority of the line end up passing more of E CT (which screws you but would be some better news for much of the state).

Watching the snow/grass line outside the window. snow line receding faster than Kevin's hairline