weatherwiz

That's a really nice surge of instability ahead of the main line. Going to see a quite a bit of wind damage from that. Still quite concerned across SE PA and NJ. Two opportunities for severe weather. 1) With that main line in which I think they see widespread damaging winds with gusts 65-75...maybe even an 80 along with potential for an embedded tornado or two. 2) A very low probability for a few discrete supercells to form. Still think the potential exists for a strong tornado there

I think there is a low probability for a strong tornado across SE PA or NJ. There is going to be a very narrow corridor...I mean very narrow of a rather impressive overlap of ingredients

don't fly kites

0z HRRR REALLY emphasizing this idea

Really going to have to watch potential for QLCS embedded tornadoes across SE PA and NW NJ tomorrow afternoon.

Now that you mention it I do recall a pretty extensive wind map

ohhhh I would love to see a national watch/warning from that. Oh man I wonder if one exists.

I can't remember anything like that.

This is absolutely ridiculous. Just about the entire eastern third of the country under wind advisory or high wind watch.

that cell that went through Soso, MS was downright scary and another headed right for them.

Man I can't remember many times where forecast models were throwing out 100+ knots of wind at 925 and as much as 110+ knots of wind at 850. Obviously there is going to be a rather stout inversion, but synotpic winds are going to be quite impressive. The bigger concern is obviously going to be convective potential. I think we'll see the slight risk expanded well into SNE. I think we will see a line of convection blow through during the afternoon with localized gusts of 65-75 mph. I do think southwest of us...SE PA, NJ, SE NY see an upgrade to an enhanced risk with a widespread destructive damaging wind event with numerous gusts in the 65-75 mph range. What's even more intriguing is what occurs behind this line. There are some indications perhaps there may be some breaks in the clouds with a bit of heating. This may promote the development of discrete supercells across parts of PA and SE NY so I think there is the potential for a few tornadoes there tomorrow afternoon. I think ingredient wave very rapidly across southern New England, however, there is potential this threat may extend into southwest CT. If we were able to warm sector a bit better here in southern New England I would see the enhanced risk get into parts of southern New England but I think we'll kinda be a bit removed fro best ingredients. Based on what looks to transpire from the mid-Atlantic into well at least PA/SE NY/NJ I think we may be looking at a serial derecho on our hands.

I don’t see much growing going on. Trees are more bare than my body right now

I am bit confused by something. The SPC mentions capping across the Deep South. I’m not totally sure I see capping...at least capping to inhibit convection from forming too early or whatever. I do see capping which may inhibit vertical growth but too me it looks like a pretty dirty warm sector tomorrow with a rapidly weakening EML and poor llvl lapse rates. thoughts?

I think tomorrow will be a big day but I am a little concerned with the lack of a stronger EML/CAP in the warm sector and there could be a quite a bit of cloud cover. I think the overall tornado potential could be mitigated a bit.

both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning.

ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree

I was thinking of starting a thread for Monday but the only thing I don't like is the best forcing/dynamics kinda become a bit displaced and remain well west. But that doesn't mean we won't see isolated cells capable of some damage. Hell...GON gusted to like 61 the other day with that convection

sounds like a high risk to me

Anyone else have dreams of a high risk last night?

Ehhh I’m not being serious lol. I don’t talk that way haha. I haven’t looked very closely at us but yeah inversion will limit wind potential unless we warm sector a bit better

I think we see some damage on Monday

yeah the damage report map will be quite lit up. Going to be a long 24-42 hour from tomorrow afternoon into early Monday morning.

wow that's way too close for comfort. Glad he was alright.

Are we in November or April

Woah his first week was when the TOR moved through? yikes