Really not bad considering temps are barely above 50. Actually quite impressed with the llvl lapse rates...given the conditions, cloud cover, etc they're not too bad.
Agreed on your thoughts. I think it's going to get tough to advect in the steeper llvl lapse rates needed to ultimately yield severe gusts. I did notice that some forecast soundings did exhibit a bit of an inverted V signature but I also noticed potential for an inversion to develop...warm front at the sfc remains south and we get WAA aloft but strengthening llvl jet off the water will probably make some inversion.
I was actually a bit surprised to see the upgrade to slight. I think we'll see some pretty strong wind gusts but not so sure we see defined severe winds...but then again our trees fall at 40 mph winds so. I also think there could be showers ahead of the main action which could hamper the severe threat
It's a shame we can't muster up more instability. Winds should remain below severe criteria (though weakened trees/limbs may come down in places) but there could be quite a bit of small hail.