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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. Just enough 3km CAPE/sfc vorticity and effective helicity for a brief TOR potential
  2. Would have been better had I switched to JFK terminal. Rotation in CT...between Woodbury Center and Bethlehem Village
  3. Took a bit but there was a pretty nasty little couplet and a decent little inflow notch
  4. Really not bad considering temps are barely above 50. Actually quite impressed with the llvl lapse rates...given the conditions, cloud cover, etc they're not too bad.
  5. If the NAM is right Thursday will be quite scary in the south. Would argue high risk potential. NAM seems to be alone though
  6. I HAD A SEVERE WEATHER DREAM LAST NIGHT!!! Was under tornado warning and saw a massive gust front...severe season getting close!!!!!!
  7. Agreed on your thoughts. I think it's going to get tough to advect in the steeper llvl lapse rates needed to ultimately yield severe gusts. I did notice that some forecast soundings did exhibit a bit of an inverted V signature but I also noticed potential for an inversion to develop...warm front at the sfc remains south and we get WAA aloft but strengthening llvl jet off the water will probably make some inversion.
  8. I was actually a bit surprised to see the upgrade to slight. I think we'll see some pretty strong wind gusts but not so sure we see defined severe winds...but then again our trees fall at 40 mph winds so. I also think there could be showers ahead of the main action which could hamper the severe threat
  9. yeah I doubt we see large hail...not enough CAPE and not even sure there is even enough moisture available. Oh well...can always wish
  10. Looks like the main mode is linear which may scale back hail potential but I’m wondering if we could actually see some large hail?
  11. It's a shame we can't muster up more instability. Winds should remain below severe criteria (though weakened trees/limbs may come down in places) but there could be quite a bit of small hail.
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