weatherwiz

A combination of all sources...here + social media. It's been known for years that across all weather platforms individuals who aren't in the camp of snow/cold get ridiculed. Some of the big time posters from here left b/c of being attached (mainly in NYC threads) anytime they would post something that was against such scenarios. If you follow twitter closely it happens there too...folks that do alot with long-range any time they are not going cold/snow people jump all over them.

They have added some awesome MJO and ENSO re-analysis and regression products over the past several years...I feel like they've really stepped it up quite a bit with their seasonal forecasting products/research. Were they involved with the AAM data/research or was that another division? It's a shame the individuals who were doing research and providing plots/data retired and they had nobody to take over.

I wonder too what the process is behind their seasonal outlooks...do they have folks who specialize in seasonal outlooks or are they mostly derived from long-range seasonal forecast models? I've always been under the impression it is the later.

when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers

It makes since how we are running below-average for precipitation this winter given we're below-average in terms of snow. Isn't there a pretty decent positive correlation to precipitation/snowfall departures across our parts? Then as you get like to PHL on south the correlation to snowfall is more related to temperature departures? Like we can still get above-average snowfall with temperatures a bit above-average but go to PHL...very tough to do

No

Going to be pretty sick

Wtf looking forward to tomorrows convection

Looks like marginal expanded slightly. I think dews only in the 40's might be the main cause. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal expanded...perhaps not into SNE but into PA and parts of NJ

If you post them here and then pin the thread you'll be able to view them more easily you need to add the upside down smiley to the list of emojis.

I wish dewpoints were just a bit higher...even lower 50's could do some wonders

Time to pin the severe thread!!!

Will likes to poke his head in when we get big severe wx setups

I am expecting marginal risk to be placed into SNE with a slight risk where the marginal is now.

dendrite gets his wish

A vigorous piece of shortwave energy approaches late Wednesday associated with a strengthening MLJ in excess of 100 knots along with a strengthening LLJ. A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the sfc low combined with a plume of WAA/theta-e will help yield sufficient elevated instability to yield the development of a low topped squall line southwest of southern New England. conditions favor this line to move through New England during the overnight hours yielding the potential for small hail and damaging winds.

They're going to get smoked with LES in SW NY

We’ll have more pollen accumulation in spring than we did snow

We tried to tell em

time to crank Plains severe wx season...hopefully in time for my journey out west. Get the Plains hot at the end of May and then it rolls right into the Northeast for June and July. Summer of 2020 can be called the summer of damage

That's absolutely absurd...beyond highway robbery and just taking advantage of people. That's pushing $750 a month. This state is pure garbage.

We absolutely can start looking at 300= HR progs for convection. I like scrolling the mouse across the time on the SBCAPE charts...already started that

Me either!!!! One thing that can really help is the consensus for ridging to become established in the west. That should at least help in wanting to drive a trough in the east but the key will be where the trough axis occurs...we'll likely have to fight southeast ridging but at least northern New England should continue to see snow threats...whether we can get the entire region involved would depend on many details.

Correct me if I am wrong here but this was/is my thinking regarding the change. 1) When looking at the hard numbers or the forecast chart (such as below) you see a big drop coming...not only big but rather quickly But when I see "change" I look at it two ways... 1) What is causing the change? 2) Is the structure of the "big picture" changing? In assessing these two questions, what I gather is 1) There is some transient ridging which evolves and traverses the southern portion of the AO domain which leads to the big drop in AO which is further enhanced by the rather positive anomalies associated with the heights. 2) The big picture is not changing which is why it is still not a good pattern. The structure of the AO and Arctic domain remains...the TPV still remains quite strong, however, the most negative height anomalies just push a bit towards the opposite side of the pole (hence the "drop in AO"). Look what happens after this drop...the AO spikes right back up as that transient ridging either weakens or pushes east of the AO domain. I would even bet that when this drop peaks it ends up being slightly higher than forecast.

Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify?