weatherwiz

If anything this was good practice for the season. Gotta shake off the forecasting rust.

Ok, this is a more fair assessment. but to say thinking along a certain way is being level headed is just not correct. Thinking that period could be above-average in terms of temperatures is just as level headed as thinking it could be cooler with a chance for some snow. Are there signals pointing more towards one direction than the other...sure but it's not like those signals are overly strong and a few minor adjustments can result in a pattern that is colder or one that is much warmer

This is where i strongly disagree. In fact, I could argue it's the opposite of level minded. When dealing with medium and long-range you can always find something and make a case for whatever it is you're trying to state. There have obviously been two camps these past two months and one of those camps have just been flat out wrong...but to ensure they can't be wrong they just add buffer sentences and statements which just say "but that doesn't mean it will happen" "it may not play out that way" etc. Every single time those who have posted against those EPS pattern signal changes they've been ridiculed.

I'm just amazed at the AO this winter. 1) How quickly the AO just jumped into positive territory and never looked back 2) How many times it peaked at +4SD 3) For this entire month each drop in the AO was less impressive then the previous drop. This stretch will end that. But that forecast drop in a few weeks looks close to the period Will is talking about too .

I wonder if it will go below the dip from a few weeks ago. But it does look like the entire structure of the AO is beginning to break down (perhaps more related to the transition towards spring?). I know the AO loses correlation as we move through the spring, but should we continue seeing such high anomalies it will continue holding at least some weight on the pattern.

nice. Do you know what the daily values where?

I had this same exact thought when looking at the end of next week. That's a pretty decent system/front looking to move through late week but our temperatures go from quite a bit above-average to right around average or even a few ticks above

Looks like a split flow wants to try and develop around that time-range...actually even looks tad omega block-ish like too. At least with this there wouldn't be a SE ridge to deal with. Shift the ridge axis a bit west and that could favor something to really amplify should something dig into the OV

Warm Kevin is my favorite. I used to like waking up in the morning and running to my computer to reads Kevin warm posts during the warm season...was the best part of the day. I would do that before anything else and then I would feel all warm and fuzzy inside and walk around the rest of the day with a big smile on my face.

Jesus...that's beyond pathetic.

ehhh it's all in good fun and jabbing. I kinda jumped the gun on this...overlooked (or well didn't look) a few things which if I had I probably wouldn't have made this thread. I focused too much on dynamics/lapse rates and didn't even bother to look at theta-e/llvl moisture. but it's also the tone of things...I like sticking my head out and trying to make actual forecasts/calls and get away from the notion of "if this happens then this will result". I notice that quite a bit on twitter and I think those posts put the wrong ideas in peoples head. It's not the person's fault who is putting forth the information though...it's how the information is being perceived. Even the past month with all these "signals" on the EPS about changes...were those changes really of any merit? When you take into account the structure hemispheric pattern that has been place I don't think any of them ever did. The biggest thing (in my mind was) a lack of a mechanism to disrupt this pattern/circulation to make such changes go through.

The one a few weekends back where places up north were like -20 to -30. IDK...I find that "impressive",,,at least in this winter

Wednesday is a day where with any sun BDL could tickle 70. Going to be some strong mixing ahead of the front

Signals have been there for a while March was going to be predominately above-average. Remember the first week of March was supposed to be cold Not going to get any long-sustained cold blasts with this look: 500 zonal wind anomalies since Jan 1...easy to see why we've been predominately on the warmer side but you can also see how we can sneak in those brief bursts of (and at times) impressive cold shots. Given the state of the Arctic combined with the move towards the equinox March is going to be warm...and potentially quite warm

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. .

It's going to be wild from the OV to the Gulf coast first half of next week. Going to be some significant flooding along with severe

There was actually some small hail in PA last night

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out.

you are such a weenie deflater

well now I am in the same boat as everyone else with calling for the fake winter threats that never transpired.

But you can’t compare long-range/seasonal models with short-term models. They’re completely different in terms of parameterizations, equations, physics, etc. Statistically climate models are more likely to be accurate. but in terms of buying what the CPC is showing for 15-months...it has nothing to do with buying or selling...it’s not like they’re just pulling this out of their ass. Significant amount of work goes into the construction of these forecasts. Will every month end as so...perhaps not. But the fact of the matter is, given the climate regime we’re in AN is going to win out over BN. further complicating matters is analogs and these correlations that were once a thing are losing merit b/c we’re continuing to find ways to yield temperatures overall which are warmer than average.

Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill.

social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad.

It's creeping

This is actually very true