weatherwiz

A) oh come on...that's too easy but my point to that is when we see these changes modeled in the medium-to-long range...shouldn't signals which are leading to those changes be witnessed with initialization of models say at D4 or 5 (or some day). B ) makes sense C) This is all extremely informative information! But given the historic nature of the AO would the 45/60 day pattern be applicable here?

I'm not saying it stays 3-5SD but I think it stays strong enough to where it continues to influence and dominate the pattern. I completely agree the tropospheric PV can certainly change and isn't totally tied into the SPV but aren't the two strongly coupled currently? Something would have to disrupt that, no? I would think we want to start seeing the TPV and SPV decouple What I see happening is (which is yielding the TPV to weaken) is ridging develops just northeast of AK and this extends into the Arctic domain which would result in the weakening of the AO...but this is something we've seen modeled quite a bit over the past few weeks and that scenario just doesn't seem to materialize. One of the bigger changes looks to be more with AK and extending ridging more into AK...that could be a huge driver.

Again...everyone is completely relying on a model output saying it's going to drop to +1 but there is hardcore evidence or indications that actually happens?

what would be the catalyst behind the change? This is something which I was trying to get at with my evening rants last night. I don't think it's in the best interest to assume a pattern change is going to occur (and in this cases big changes to the AO) just b/c "it is modeled". How many times have we seen models indicate a pattern change beyond a certain time frame only for it to continue being delayed...and delayed? For it to have merit there has to be a catalyst. So in this situation, if we're looking at a big pattern change to occur in say 7-10 days or 10-14 days...I would think whatever the catalyst is to drive that changes should be sen in real-time within the next 3-4 days. What is going to allow a relaxation of the AO? I was reading some stuff last night and apparently the AO is forecast to remain completely in tact and very strong moving into March. Unless there is something to disrupt those historic westerlies I can't see this AO just going poof.

?? on wavelengths or the AO/March based on forecasts...not so sure that happens given the state of things and if so it's brief

What has me concerned with the AO relaxing are the strength of the westerlies in the lower stratosphere...they're ripping. Perhaps some brief weaknesses in the height field result in a temporary relaxation of the AO, but I think it will just quickly rise again. I agree...it's not necessarily the +AO in itself to blame...but I think the placement of the strongest anomalies with the AO are to blame. This coupled with a PAC which I don't think has been entirely helpful either...the BN heights down into the GoA with the +AO has totally killed us. If we were able to get higher heights to poke into AK things could be a bit different. The SE ridge has been a bit pesky too and helping to push storm track west

It is more than just the Arctic..but overall that's been the main driver of things. But I'm not so sure it becomes less impactful/hostile in March...at least when the signal is this strong. I agree that is the case when the signal is more muted or not as defined...but this puppy is a beast...this is a near historic +AO. I agree...but the shortening of wave lengths probably doesn't really do much to the pattern until what maybe late spring...? (Not totally well-versed on this subject) so not sure that alone would help us out.

nahhh you're good haha. Believe it or not I'm quite frustrated with this winter too lol...this has been pathetic. I was so pumped as the December start (I want to live through 100'' again). we're all angry and taking frustrations out any way possible

Saw this posted on twitter earlier...this is ridiculous. About as strong of a SPV you can get. The only thing that is going to break this down is the transitioning to northern hemisphere summer https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-87.56,48.38,325

I meant to say shorten...not lengthen. If we were in a completely different state I wouldn't be so quick to write off March but I just don't see the changes needed to completely disrupt things. Some winter the PAC completely dominates and when it's an unfavorable PAC we can be screwed big time...this time it's the Arctic. The signal is just too overpowering.

I think March has potential to be quite warm...if the AO remains as strongly positive as it is...which seems plausible combined with the look of the Pacific...once we start lengthening shortening the wavelengths as we near spring we could roast. I think we'll have to get lucky and time something right with a shot of cold air...that's not going to happen with this end of the week shot so we'll have to wait for the next one...which may not be until sometime next week...which may not even come out to be much if the AO rises like it seems to do

But it's more than just the seasonal vibe...it's what's occurred through the season. It would be totally different if the atmospheric state was different and we were just missing events...but that hasn't been the case. The entire hemispheric pattern has been pretty horrific...especially regarding the Arctic and that circulation has not only been strong but it's been dominating. This just isn't going to change overnight or in a week or two. There needs to be significant impact and disruption for changes to occur and there is typically a good 2-4 week lag from when those disruptions occur to the evolution of the pattern. All winter long...all winter long has been nothing but "500 looks good in 10 days" "EPS looking good in the long range" "GEFS and EPS agree it's coming" blah blah blah blah There is a reason why everything is shown at D10 and then the signal just completely disappears inside D5-6...models are always, always way too fast to completely change a pattern and there was never anything which supported the Arctic circulation changing...outside of what ensembles or D10 progs have shown...where there are disruptions occurring at the present that's when you can expect these D7-10 solutions to hold merit. I understand the theme is winter, cold, and snow and people don't want to hear things which dispute that...but when facing hard core reality the drawing has been on the board since the end of December/early January how this winter was going to unfold. People can do all they want to try and hold out hope that March will deliver...and then try and toss some past years which delivered to make them feel better or as a method to install hope. Even all winter (like what typically happens) those who have been "poo-pooing" winter and any threats get **** on but at the end of the day they've been spot on. People who like cold and snow just don't want to hear anything that disputes those possibilities.

When you have to hope for March to deliver to make things up....: Has it happened before...sure, but the odds aren't great. It's like being 20-games out of a playoff spot with 21-games left...it's over...it sucks but move on. "Hoping" isn't going to make things change

I can already smell the tulips

We could really be heading towards a snooze fest of a pattern...to me it seems like a pattern we would see between the transition from fall to winter...where things sort of quiet down after the fall and then we establish our winter pattern. But there seems to be strong support for large high pressure to become established over a major chunk of the U.S. Patterns like that can hold for quite a while too. I'm guessing after that pattern we could bold right into a late spring type pattern.

Only part of this statement is fully accurate...though the jest of it is true.

One of these days when I have time I'm going to go on a nice ranting blog post about this and snow maps. Perhaps I'll do that this upcoming Sunday.

Couldn't agree anymore here...people are willing to wait hours in line for food or shopping, but when it comes to reading something forget it. Same goes to forecasting...constructing an excellent forecast requires a great deal of time and detail. Forecasters who spend the time to look over all variables and use knowledge to determine "what makes the most sense" are going to be more accurate than those who don't. Forecasting now is almost becoming a joke b/c it's just rip and read off a few products and go from there.

We'll be tracking severe wx in June and people will still be holing out hope for a pattern change and snow

yeah the Swanzey one which happened like 10:00 AM in 2008 2012 I think even had a couple in CT from that same event could even go back to 2007 (which had the supercells on June 5) and 2006 (derecho in August and a major event July 18 that was April I think...went to the Baseball HOF that day...if we're thinking same event

ughhhh that's what I thought but I edited and revered them. My memory isn't what it used to be. I'm going to re-edit back so it's correct

The past decade has been pretty solid for severe too. 2008 was wild with the cold pool hail events (that year alone accounted for like 15% of NYS hail reports...from 1950-2008). 2009 sucked 2010 had back-to-back tornado watch days 2011 had June 1st 2012 I don't remember 2013 I think was the year CT had the 4 weak tornadoes in July (though this could be argued it was the same tornado that kept jumping) 2014 don't remember 2015 don't remember 2016 we had that major outbreak in February 2017 I think this was a second half of summer driven with the nocturnal lightning producing events 2018 had May 15 then September/October was kinda wild. Tied record year for tornadoes in CT 2019 kinda sucked actually 2020...Going to Oklahoma!!!!!!

Thank God social media didn't exist then

Is that not even 10'' just before 1940? ouch