weatherwiz

Winter is over...know it, accept it, embrace it. It's time to move on...making up fantasies of about how things can change isn't going to make it a reality. Just think summer thoughts...hot tubs, sun tanning, sexy cumulus growing in the sky, thunder, lightning, hail...ahhhhh that's better

I think it's an encouraging sign to see it back to high amplitude now...assuming with each new set of runs the pieces are being sampled better...a hedge in this direction is excellent news. The only question is will this be consistent through overnight guidance. If the flip-flopping continues then it's really anyone's guess as to what transpires b/c the end result will be too close for comfort (in terms of having to issue forecasts with leadtime) and could go either way.

yeah that's a major eye opening change. You don't usually see changes that significant at this range.

cue James with a 50 sentence long post about how if the storm tracks over the Gulf Stream that is an extremely likely solution with as much as 12-18'' possible at the Cape with wind gusts over 80 mph b/c 500mb winds at the base of the trough approach 100 mph

We're still at the stage where sfc reflection isn't all that important...the surface reflection is going to be dependent on the evolution of the features at H5...point is if H5 continues with these improvements...it will reflect at the sfc. Seeing the major differences in the evolution of the northern stream is extremely encouraging.

God that's super close...close enough to where this storm can't be completely tossed...hopefully this is the beginning of something and this idea continues through 12z tomorrow...otherwise this could become a complete forecast disaster...even if this signal remains constant through tomorrow's runs...it's still not enough to totally discount it but not really defined enough to make a distinct forecast.

That record breaking jet streak is gone on today's GFS Only see like 140-145 knots

Deep Thunder?

sounds to me like you're the doctor...and doing the exam wrong

Some good news... the GFS is now into mid-February at the end of it's run...so in about 15-days it will be into March and then there will only be ONE FULL MONTH to go in the model world until May!!!

I should have been clearer...I was referring to the idea that phasing is harder. I've always wondered something about the Coriolis forcing and there is another equation or two (think one of them is the vorticity equation) but when you do scale analysis you "negate" terms which have a larger scale of magnitude b/c it is said that term is "negligible"...I wonder if even know its negligible if it actually still holds some degree of importance and perhaps if incorporated into these equations would maybe help with accuracy.

Wow that's a substantial difference..this northern stream is really giving the models a workout

If only more were as level headed as you

This is exactly what it is...excellent post. The way social media works in the weather world is if you post about cold/snow happening...you'll get thousands of likes, shares, interactions, and follows. Meanwhile, those who don't hype and explain the situation exactly at is may only get several likes and minimal interaction.

but wasn't it only one run? The one thing which has been constant this entire week of tracking was the flow was going to be progressive and when that's the case it's going to be very difficult to get an end result of northern stream assistance. Sometimes the gun gets jumped too quickly on just one model run...whether it be an OP or EPS. For example, if all of a sudden the EPS switched tunes next week everyone would start jumping towards cold/snow b/c this one run showed it...then after the EPS jumps back from this idea instead of realizing it was a blip everyone still acts as if there was hope b/c this one run said so

At this juncture I highly doubt we're getting any assistance from the northern stream...which never seemed highly likely anyways. The flow is just too progressive. Sure there have been hints at more northern stream involvement...but they've been just that...hints. There was never any major support or backing from this possibility outside of "if x happens then y will occur".

This type of stuff pisses me off... why even post a comparison to March of 1993 if you're going to say "oh but its unlikely" This happens on twitter a ton...there will be a post "Oh here's the GFS solution and snow map for D11 showing potential for 20-30''...but it's extremely unlikely to happen" Like what's the point of the post??? This does nothing but create hype and create a false sense...it's garbage like this which is leading the public to lose faith in meteorologists. I have a friend who is in the landscaping business and he is very in-tune with the weather...checks information across all platforms, asks for my feedback, and he'll show me stuff which he comes across and he says to me...he talks to alot of people in the business (landscaping) and they get pissed when they come across information like that.

Can't believe I missed this post! I am thrilled for what you have had to say as it reinforces much of what I had sort of noted myself. That's also great information about the difference between top and bottom number...I think I used to use the top number quite a bit for gusts then started realizing it was a bit too aggressive so had started going with the bottom number. What I've found seem to find with bufkit is I don't think it handles winds out west very well. Some cities I forecast for are Oakland, CA, Ontario, CA, and Carlsbad, CA and just today I saw the HWW in Ontario and my forecasts for winds are way, way, way off

I kinda disagree...there are times when I totally understand "bashing" forecast models but I don't think that is appropriate in this situation. Every single process involved in this potential was highly complex...perhaps one of the more complex scenarios you'll see. It's almost impossible to expect forecast models to 1) handle a situation like this well 2) show consistency (both run-to-run and model-to-model). When you have a progressive flow, numerous pieces of embedded s/w energy, potential for any type of phasing, and questions with how the pattern will evolve...which is based on numerous other factors...the forecast models just aren't going to do exceptionally well.

Not even February yet and it's already 61 pages

yeah that's becoming a bit more interesting. I would watch out sometime next week (and a period where models don't show anything)...if that ejects there is opportunity to coincide with some northern stream energy.

0PPD is preferred

yeah I don't think there is anyway possible you could forecast something that obscene months out...unless of course you had a blaring signal like in 2018.

yeah your December call was pretty damn good...I was real excited after December (especially since BDL pulled off like 26'') but we just couldn't keep it going.

I would take it. I don't have the whole snowpack fetish so I'm completely fine with getting pounded with snow and then having it go away in a few days. When snow starts piling up it leads to more hassle than it's worth