weatherwiz

Nice...good call. Seems like that's exactly what is happening. I think I've read around some saying this happening earlier in winter...unless I completely misread. Hell maybe we'll have a blockbuster March...not totally unrealistic and it happened as recently as two years ago

that's not terrible. I see what you mean though about after the first week of February. That's quite the significant change. Now...whether that is valid remains to be seen.

I believe that is correct. I just looked at QBO numbers and indeed that does fit the notion for a +AO. (Also the zonal wind map posted verifies +QBO). I do remember reading some outlooks talking about the QBO descending to easterly...so many that didn't happen as thought? Or there is a (mis)conception that it becoming less positive over time would favor blocking...lol...like a weenie wish cast (ohhh yeah the QBO is westerly...but it's becoming less westerly so blocking)

what's 500 look like? Just judging from that but looks like a gradient-type pattern could setup?

It's really hard to see any assistance from the stratosphere or PV at this juncture so we'll have to get help somewhere else. The stratosphere above the Arctic looks rather cold with the PV on the strong side. If zonal winds around 50mb can relax a bit perhaps that can assist with the PV displacing south...but they've been pretty strong this month: I wish there was more information available regarding the QBO. What's become apparently obvious with the QBO (and just like any other measure of variability) is it's the structure of the wind anomalies and how they're propagating/descending. So while a raw look at the number may have provided hope for some assistance from blocking perhaps the overall structure argued against it.

That is probably the final chance to drastically change things. If we get closer and that is delayed further it will become very difficult to make things happen in time. The signal for changes in the Pacific have seemed to be pretty consistent, however, the Arctic is not really cooperating...which kinda sucks b/c based on some of the changes in the Pacific we don't need a ton of changes in the Arctic but the look doesn't seem very appealing. Hopefully with the MJO signal weakening that will jump start changes.

I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada.

Could sun tan on top of the hot tub next week

You're not wrong

What's concerning though entering February is there just doesn't seem to be much in the way of cold air into Canada...PAC air continues to be flooded into Canada.

I would think something has to give entering the second week of January with forecast models indicating such an intense ULJ...looks like you get a situation where the STJ and PJ phase and there's a pretty significant storm with that and then a major pattern change behind it? Didn't we actually experience something similar last winter (and around the same time?)...there was the record ulvl winds measured across several Northeast balloon launch locations

Euro not as aggressive with the pants tent jet stream but still over 180 knots over SNE. This is actually going to be fun to watch this next week

several more months!

more like towels Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify.

WOAHHHHHHHH

Holy tomato...200+ knot ULJ over the southeast

GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico

That was pretty crazy.

That's an excellent point. Combine a fast flow with numerous pieces and it's nothing but chaotic hell with solutions which range from OTS to roof crushing snows. But to your initial point...I get what you're saying...and actually given the fast flow and room for phasing not to happen...well an intense system is not as certain.

What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor.

It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess.

12z NAM gets into the range of Friday evening now...the differences in H5 between the models even for Friday evening (which isn't entirely that far out there) is insane. Hopefully over these next 24-hours there is some sort of clustering/agreement of the large-scale features.

1989. (I know the reference is the 1989-1990 season but just keep it at 1989 :D) But 1990 was a solid tornado season for NY and PA

Totally agree...not only is the climate shift a major part in this but the expanding of the data base too.

let's hope those 89 analogs stick around come July