weatherwiz

Astros may be calling you for their managerial vacancy

That sounds pretty exciting! I'm actually strongly considering pursuing masters in the fall...doing the online route at Mississippi State. Some of the classes offered look like a ton of fun

nahhhh I'm threaded out from the May 1 thread

That threat is the perfect way to kick off a February discussion thread...

couldn't ask for a more perfect H7 or H85 track. *sigh* why you gotta be so far out

and the lightning...can't have thunder without the lightning

Could see grauple showers on the backside Sunday...grauple mixed with snow

everybody is getting pregnant these days

Euro still shoots some sfc-based CAPE into southern New England!!!

I wonder why when we seem to get inside a certain time frame we see these major flips...it certainly doesn't happen every time but it always seems like we get inside this magic number and poof...a complete 180 happens. Is it perhaps that everything is being sampled better? Perhaps its a parameterization function (outside of a certain time range doesn't the parameterization schemes change?)? Or maybe its a type of bias resulting from the ensemble mean smoothing key features just a bit too much?

climo

Going to have to start looking into how the pattern is going to be come spring. I sure hope it's one that favors active severe wx in the Plains...if I go to OK and nothing happens I'm going to be a bit upset.

wow that's pretty nice! One hobby I want to get into is photography...I can't wait until the summer when we get the early sunrises and I get to watch the sun rise going into work...epic. I'm going to get a dash-cam too (mainly for storm chasing) but use it on mornings the sun rise will be epic.

When it's consistent for 3-4+ days then it can be considered a potential true change

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!! 99 days to go!!!! 99 calendar days to go 99 calendar days to go you rip a date down then its one less day to go!!!!

At least signal for elevated convection is still there

We can always save this thread by turning it into a convective potential thread

Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked.

northern New England

This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM

Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time

Agreed. We go through the same nonsense every winter. Sometimes beginning as early as mid-November talk will begin about how the pattern looks "great" around Thanksgiving...then that gets delayed until early December...then it's around Christmas...then it's after Christmas...then it's after the New Year...then it's mid-month...then it's as we move into late month/February...then climo finally takes over and everyone claims win handing out high-fives for calling for the pattern change that took two months to occur. The problem is too many want to verify patterns based on whether they got to use a ruler in their backyard to measure snow...or one model run (ensemble or a weekly or whatever) throws up an H5 pattern that yields pants tents and all of a sudden "the pattern is going to change" b/c that run indicated it's going to happen and everyone starts running with it and once we hit that certain time stamp the signal vanishes as given the NH configuration it was unlikely to begin with. Since fall and through now we have seen highly erratic medium-to-long range pattern consistency within the models (likely as a result of a volatile Pacific with periods of increased MJO activity.

My guess it's b/c the euro has been a bit inconsistent with ULL track and how H5 and subsequent features evolve...the GFS has been a bit more consistent with the evolution/track of the ULL

Exactly!!! A similar pattern configuration, evolution, etc isn't going to produce similar results at the surface and it may not even produce something that is remotely close. There are numerous different solutions which can result from the "same setup"...so when a result happens it was just that one result out of the xxx amount. Too much emphasis is placed on analogs...ESPECIALLY seasonal forecasting