weatherwiz

yup...not only are they garbage to begin with but add p-type issues into the picture and they become worse than garbage. Only thing perhaps realistic about that is the potential max area That should have always been a player on the table...scenarios like that are not uncommon in these setups

Given the Euro joining the train this afternoon I think we see winter storm warnings fly. Going to be a nice strip of 4-8''

There is a purpose to this thread...want to start collecting information, thoughts, and ideas for bigger events which can be a tool for research purposes down the road. An extremely unseasonably conducive environment for severe weather (including tornadoes and strong tornadoes) exists across the Gulf coast states. A somewhat uncommon winter-time elevated-mixed layer has advected into the region from the Mexican plateau and is characterized by mlvl lapse rates on order of ~7.5 C/KM. Below the EML exists an extremely moist airmass with sfc dews in the 60's and 70's. This is contributing to MLCAPE values on order of 1500 J/KG with 3km CAPE values greater than 125 J/KG. Couple with with 50+ knots of vertical shear and effective helicity > 300 m2s2 and this is the result... A large and destructive tornado is currently on the ground over Leander, LA. This has been a long-tracked tornado and given the environment may be on the ground for quite a while.

Even looks like the coast could see 2-3'' on the euro...nice.

Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up

For tomorrow...Some of those areas will likely be without power for a while

Taking a quick look at the south... 1500+ MLCAPE, 150 3km CAPE, all under 300+ effective helicity and 50+ knots 0-6km shear. uh-oh

It's always tough...even when you think the sound will be of zero influence it still seems to be a factor lol. What I think happens is there is still enough of a gradient between land/ocean that you still generate at least a localized and very confined area of winds with a southerly/easterly component...it's just so localized and small models won't pick it up.

These type of fronts almost always are associated with snow squalls. these are different than polar fronts which are more common.

Wednesday looks fun. Wish we had some steeper lapse rates involved b/c I would throw the lightning flags around. Speaking of lightning...I hope they do some special balloon launches in the south today!!!

These things are even worse than the snow maps

I agree...also 1/2'' of ice isn't very easy to get. We def start getting problems with less...especially if there is accumulating snow involved just prior.

The immediate shoreline is tough...with it still being early in the season it doesn't take much of a easterly component to the wind to bump sfc temps just above freezing. I think they may see some...but probably generally under .10''.

This storm is going to be super exciting. We get to track a tornado outbreak in the south today and then quickly shift gears and watch us get snow and ice.

Updated forecast WOAH at the SPC outlook “environment will support risk for multiple significant tornadoes”

I think you may have mentioned that could be the focal zone the other day...pretty solid call. Now it's just a matter of how much ZR we're talking about.

Holy smokes

yeah the RGEM has me pretty damn concerned. that's a pretty decent signal across central CT.

I love the famous "I have 4-wheel drive I'll be fine" line (it's ice not snow...unless your tires have custom made ice skates...good luck)

I typically bump up the expected changeover by an hour or two from what models indicate. Yeah I'm not sure if this will be a big icing event...but we may straddle the line between issues and a bit more in the way of major issues (major issues being scattered power outages and some tree damage)

With this...that makes the snowfall forecast just as important. If we get 3-4'' of snow followed by ice it will further enhance potential for some bigger issues.

That's certainly in my mind...though I am going to place that closer to the border...mlvls always seem to warm rather quick. I am a little concerned b/c if we see ice accretion pushing .4'' that's sticking the head right into the start of some trouble territory.

I don't like how the NAM only has central/northern CT only in the upper 20's to around 30 for much of tomorrow. Also props to @JGNYK03 for pointing out the discrepancy with my initial ice forecast map from Saturday...definitely going to be a much larger (and more uniform) even close down to the coast. Going to correct that with an update later this morning...along with adding a 4-6'' stripe along the CT/MA border.

Looks like it will go sick with the thump....great sign

Has anyone had the chance to see how much longer after the model initiation start time does the HRRv4 actually initialize? 12z a no go yet on cod