STILL N OF PIKE

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About STILL N OF PIKE

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    ASH
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    Nashua

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  1. Wood is Brilliant , I am a fan .She saw the innovative landscape taking shape and she saw a monetary policy very accommodating for young growth stocks in several sectors . She is launching ARKX this quarter I own a Bunch of NPA , SRAC (likely to be included and spike when news hits ). If the Fed ever announced it was considering Yield curve control (capping 10 year yields ) these growth stocks would “go to the moon”
  2. I can see what you are saying w Wood. People do tend to put the top money managers on a pedestal . Regarding tremendous difficulty allocating folks funds for the next decade I would probably focus on companies like GOOG / AMZN / AMD/NVDA and just keep an eye on competition and change allocations according To any large deviations in valuations.. as well as buy on market dips but I don’t have that sort of capital (GOOG 2000$/share) and to be honest I would also enjoy a more aggressive active strategy
  3. Sometimes I wonder if novice reads my post I could care less about broad market returns and Decade long changes in interest rates in the 70’s and 80’s What in the .....Does that have to do with my point he highlighted ..we had a business cycle back then ..I.E the Fed didn’t intervene ..never mind support assets with “all of its tools”. We will never see a fed funds rate of 3% or more in this current monetary system.. ever . Im taking about the 100’s If not thousands of companies with tiny or zero earnings trading at huge valuations thanks to Short term interest rates being pinned at zero and 10 year yield having been much less than SP dividend yield ..thus leading the mantra of TINA (there is no other option ) which has pushed valuations higher . This is not the atmosphere that was present in 70’s and 80’s ..it’s painful . I don’t need to repeat myself 5x is someone refuses to “get it “. The reason why all these growth companies Are more significant this time is because the amount of disruptive technology in several sectors is driving the innovation That is replacing existing tech over the next 15 years . Robotics , automation , fintech, Gene sequencing , ev Battery storage , innovative mining extraction techniques and on and on . You could probably just listen to the top money manager in 2020 (Cathy Wood) explain why her funds (very high growth / valuations) would be a prime example of stocks under the gun if we we enter a rising yield world (we won’t for long imo bc the fed would intervene ) And that would be a nice buying opportunity once you set aside the companies whose Extreme revenue projections are Actually met and who will scale up to be industry leaders .
  4. Did 2018 have historic valuations . That is the issue . Did 2018 have “TINA” . Apples and oranges . I’m speaking for sectors that have record valuations . Rising yields are horrible for speculative growth stocks w sky high valuations .When the earnings and dividend yield on SP 500 falls and Competes With the yield on bonds people lose T.I.N.A (there is no other option ) Stocks that have most of their value from not current but future revenue from many years ahead are killed when yields rise. It’s Really not a debate in any serious circles . Meanwhile cyclicals are favored (Banks / industrials / Real estate ) Today we see yields fall back combined with buy the dip being the most rewarding strategy of last 11 months and thankfully we spike 2% . If valuations were not record breaking in several sectors then rising yields wouldn’t be such a potential issue In those areas . There is a case to be made yields fall back a tad more or remain steady from here, especially as wage increases/amendments were taken out of stimulus bill today
  5. I honestly have no idea with DIS, they saw a amazing run since Early November (for such a mature company) as long as their valuation is still fair seems ok. It's just such a key week. The market has broke upward every single time they have touched the bottom rail of this 11 month rising channel, but i mean that only last for so long and if that breaks to the downside..everything is going on sale. One note on Yields.. bc when they rise..they are driving the shakiness in stocks (i.e the repricing of stocks to a less historic valuation) . You saw the most bubbly stocks hit first...many EV makers...then Green Energy storage companies...really anyone who was devoid of current earnings and deriving most of their projected revenue years out in the future..(hyper growth stocks with no earnings/ Spacs) . There is so much liquidity in this market that you can track the last 8 months of bond yield movements (10 yr-30 yr bond) and when that yield was not rising you saw those Hyper growth stocks (w zero or most of their future earnings in distant years ) rise very quickly... then January 6 or so ....https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx you see a inflection point and yields rose quickly beginning the Pressure build up on the bubbly valuation stocks and that has hit EV Makers, Some Green energy sweethearts, and last week some bubbly e commerce sites like Shop/Meli/Etsy and many others and that was enough to start to sink the Overall Markets. edit. The fact that minimum wage and any amendment to that was Just pulled from Stimulus bill removes a large driver on future Real inflation (inflation that could actually occur and not the pipe dream the market has been warning about for 15 years) and could be a catalyst to see yields fall back . If that is the case the market resumes its rocket upward.
  6. Futures are up as Market is Seeing Longer dated bond yields fall. Those bonds were extremely oversold so a pullback was likely . Last coupe hours on Friday saw 5-10% move down in yields . It would be a sort of a nervous rally bc stocks are acting more reactive to bond yield movement compared to the Other 11 months of rally when that was not a concern at all . In the sense of any rally is a bit shakier bc should we see bond yields rise up quickly (within hours -they had a mind of their own last week ) markets will build pressure very quickly to sell off (reprice historic valuations lower) As there is a inverse relationship between interest rates and Stock valuations
  7. How far below Normal is Mansfield this year on its Snow depth and accumulations chart. I haven't followed that area particularly closely for last 5 weeks but that is also because i believe there have been a lack of good up slope snow last month. I wouldn't be shocked if this was one of their leaner years just going on a hunch. Seems Phin has done better than anyone In NNE relative to ave.
  8. Your Body type break down was entertaining and Seems pretty accurate Based on what I believe . However, if the * goal is success * and not being distracted by others easier paths , then you have to eat for your “dominant body type” Endo’s - avoid processed carbohydrates- and high alcohol .minimize them . Eat lean proteins , healthy fats . Maximize those .Alcohol will raise estrogen and endos already run a tad high there . Push the intensity in your workouts w Cardio and weights . Intermittent fasting is a easier way to do this for the “busy” person . The hardest path is for the Ecto-Endo. Longer / thinner muscle bellies but still somewhat wider hips with a tendency to store fat on torso . Best for them to follow the endo dominant plan unless they are trying to Look like a lineman.
  9. Was nice to see some snow falling for a few hours this morning.
  10. Good that you allow your kids to interact responsibly . So many are depressed and isolated this year.
  11. It's sort of staring folks right in the face. The Fed is the reason for all the liquidity and the crowded long trade that may begin to unwind here. Chair Powell also made it clear he did not intend to step in (more than they already are) and do anything about rising yields (that make borrowing rates higher to consumers) * Bc they seethem as fulfilling their forecast /desire for letting inflation run a little hot And especially as added confidence in the market pricing in more of a recovery. Its ironic in a sense that as the economy was in the toilet and interest rates were extremely low the stock market was soaring and now (unless the Fed steps in-and they made it seem like they won't unless there is carnage) as the economy picks up again the stock market is looking vulnerable. If you look at valuations and adjust them lower due to rising interest rates....and take into account the market almost always overshoots in whatever direction it is moving...it should be a wild ride next week . The Trend line from last April's rally into Mid February has a ...well just look at this chart. The line in the sand on SP 500 is 3770 ...we break that and Free falling comes on The Nasdaq closed below it's 50 Day moving ave. and the SP 500 (ES)(SPX) bounced of its 50 day around 1030 am. The market crapped itself around 350 P.M before the close. Now with all the liquidity the market could do anything from here, I don't mean to act like i "Know" where it's going but we have a key (NEW) situation where the FED is for the first time in the year long rally the PROBLEM and it views the Yield rise (markets problem) as a GOOD THING that confirms the fed is doing its job in orchestrating a economic recovery. There are 6 Fed governors that speak next week and they will likely be spewing the same .."yields rising is a confirmation the economy is recovering" . This should send the market on its AZZ unless they find the wiggle room to change their mind prior to the market breaking the trend line above. The rising yields are a global issue and the Europeans are not so jolly about the movement as the rise in borrowing rates is choking off their recovery before it even gets going...they may break ranks with the FED and try to stop the rise..but the US Bond market is the biggest market in the whole financial system by a large degree so it sorta steers the boat. To add one final counter point ..there is the chance that this rising yield trade is nearly exhausted and or that the Fed will act clandestinely to bring rates down thru direct unannounced purchases to avoid asset price falls and to avoid acting like they are panicked about rising rates (and to save markets confidence in them) either one of these would likely save the market from a break below the key support measures.
  12. I do have a couple holds . I sold many of my stocks last week. First 3 are E 3 metals (EEMMF) Standard Lithium (STLHF) American Manganese (AMZYF) I hold a ton of lithium miners but not married to them I also like PWON and ADN for energy storage and plan on holding
  13. Trading some names definitely, holding others . But also just very interested and imo aware of policy implications and current issues . Systematic issues in a highly leveraged market dependent on growing intervention to keep asset levels ..perpetually elevated to ensure solvent pensions and household balance sheets Anyway , we will see when Fed acts .
  14. The market has Very likely made a top . Until or Without more intervention Further Out on yield curve (To depress the 10 year bond ) there is likely continued trouble and falling asset Values. Choppy price action