Jump to content

STILL N OF PIKE

Members
  • Posts

    9,309
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE

  1. Ya , I mean stocks probably keep on rising higher . Apparently Evergrande has been trading at 20 cents on the dollar for months in fixed income markets ..so no big surprise . I don’t know what the Options for terms of their debt restructuring are and wether a situation where they pay their domestic obligations 100% and give a haircut to foreign banks / Foreign funds would be enough to create more downside (or even make sense for them ) but baring that speculation ...things probably just keep pushing higher At a time when black rocks Rick Rider Says fixed income demand has never been higher in his 35 years of working (Helps keep rates low and appetite for high yield high ) and The fed and western central banks have created such Bloated amounts of liquidity they have created one of the most impressive backdrops for rising asset prices that has ever Been seen in financial markets . it’s been extremely difficult to conjure up a 5% backdrop
  2. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/21/evergrande-debt-crisis-interest-payments-on-bondsimpact-on-investors.html 11% of ALL high yield bonds from Asia are Evergrande’s and they do not look to be paying on them ...I bet most major banks have significant exposure
  3. China likes starting sell offs . First Covid and now ..we’ll this I don’t have a great understanding of but ..looks like it can be contained This probably won’t cause contagion but if I was trying to become a super power , I would shake up the global hierarchy And stress test a US led global financial system that needs continuous fed intervention since 2009 and hope my currency would have a better “seat” after a financial reset that is a black swan away The western Central banks (closely tied to their governments ) are *desperately doing everything they can do sustain Ultra loose (emergency level monetary policy ) During a period of what looks like decent growth ...it’s an open secret they need to walk this fine line (maintain emergency accommodative policy ) to sustain high asset prices And financial system solvency in the face of a old over indebted monetary system ) . Now they are maintaining this policy despite strong growth and rising inflation ...the financial media won’t spell it out (everyone invested is seeing soaring asset prices as a result ) including 4 federal reserve governors in Luke warm water for investing millions in stocks and setting ultra loose monetary policy that has increased inflation for the working populace and resulted in soaring assets for investor class (Home owners have also benefited)
  4. Most people eat too much horribly unhealthy crap some do better with a balance , some do better avoiding it all together and some change their habits when they have a health scare yolo...
  5. Beautiful day today in SNE low dews no need to hear PF tell me how great it was at Canadian border @1500’ when my azz is sweating
  6. Harris ...beast of a rushing TD . Tried to hold Him up and strip ball . Not happening . Impressive run z
  7. Salmon , chicken breast, chili Chick pea pasta, sweet potato fries, gonna eat pounds of food
  8. Setting NFL weekly lineups for fanduel Wilson should have a big day at QB few game totals in mid 50’s should bring plenty of scoring from those RB/WR ( Allen/ Metcalf/Cooper/ Ekeler/Carson)
  9. 6z gfs looks like it hung it up to the west a extra day and muted it
  10. Great fire works show for Bedford day in mass, now some of mother nature’s thunder rolling in
  11. 82 today in Nashua , I would prefer cooler and without 60’s dews
  12. Yup, I would guess there will be a favorable phase ...in that time frame . last year zeta greeted us with snow into Downtown Boston
  13. I’ll go with M. J ventrice’s Take any day over Hazelton (and weeklies) on where it’s favorable / unfavorable Regarding tropics
  14. PF clearly enjoyed the broke back at the mountain , in all seriousness the definition of breaking the back of summer are very subjective . The reemergence of a AN pattern puts a bigger thorn In the side of the broken back of summer argument along the CP of SNE where AN data in mid September is still uncomfortable to many compared to Stowe
  15. I wound ask to do my time at a high elevation prison
  16. I would say it’s the market valuations getting a semblance of sanity The overall problem In global equity markets is that long term debt has piled up so enormously high that we are in the latter stages of the monetary systems “life cycle “. This perspective doesn’t receive much awareness but at this point in the life cycle central banks the world over have to keep interest rates permanently at low level so that the interest on the debt maintains manageable Low Payments The other related and red flag of a monetary system in the “late stages of its life” is that Sovereign central banks are now the * largest holders* of their Counties debt . No longer is China remotely close to the largest holder of US gov’t debt . Thanks to “QE” and incredible ballooning of the all Major central bank balance sheets , the central banks have been buying their own countries gov’t bonds In gigantic quantities (To suppress 10-30 year interest rates ) to keep debt levels Manageable and to keep borrowing rates lower for households . It’s the hallmark of a fragile system . The only game left in town for central banks is to sustain a very accommodative policy (and move goal posts to respectively to justify said policy ) That keeps liquidity very high and risk assets being bid up to keep those asset prices very high to maintain the surprisingly fragile reality that assets are marked up enough to keep household balance sheets solvent . The debt isn’t going away . The USA and many major countries are so debt saturated that gdp growth (in a debt based system ) is now permanently low and dependent on large increases in fiscal spending . There are more and more “balls that require juggling to kick the can” and Further sustain the current monetary systems functioning / existence /solvency . Surpisingly fragile and dependent on continued intervention ...and everyone would be effected. Monetary systems have a finite existence . People from Central America know the reality of waking up to see that their life savings has been devalued by 75% overnite and while I don’t see it going down like that as the US dollar is the back bone of the global financial system , there will be a time when folks learn the hard way that monetary systems need a occasional reset and protecting ones life savings thru diversity and hard assets (not paper promises ) should be a priority . when it does there will likely be a catalyst (black swan) that pushes the system over the edge..this will be billed as a tragedy that “nobody saw coming” “ and things “were going so well “ but in reality when a system is so fragile and black swans occur (thou their timing and details can’t be predicted ) preparation was the key and no I don’t have a answer (I don’t have much wealth) people smarter than me are preparing
  17. Weak fish is my guess I’m not sold it will even develop beyond a TS
×
×
  • Create New...