weatherwiz

Here's a question...this is EPS 6-10 day mean. See how that ridge is oriented in the GoA...how it extends into AK from like a SSW to a NNE orientation? (Excuse my drawing, but if that ridge was configured more south to north and positioned slightly differently, would the result of the central US trough be farther east with the east ridging now into the Atlantic...but how would that pool of below-average heights (assuming that's the Azores high_ behave? Also, does this Azores high play any significance to how the pattern is configured across the east? When the NAO is positive this feature is always going to be weaker than average (showing up as below-average heights)...I feel like anytime you have a trough centered in the central U.S. and you have these below-average heights with the Azores high, the response in the middle has to be a ridge.

Didn't realize it's available...though guessing experimental https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_text

The HRRR seems to have tremendous potential. the extended runs of the HRRR have seemed to do a pretty decent job...though that's just observation...could be completely wrong and quickly shot down via the scores.

Hello!

ughhhh it tries

Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT

should be considered

So close

I was doing some reading on sting jets and I must embarrassingly admit, I had sting jet completely confused with something else. Skip forward...I poo pooed it

dandruff?

That is certainly lacking. It was more just in jest how this season there have been a few others named which were complete garbage looking. Remember the one that was named and like 3 hours later dissipated LOL

I can't believe it's not named yet. I mean they've named some waves that lasted like 5 hours.

some moisture way get suck in our direction

Potential Cyclone Sixteen looking pretty healthy on IR

What products can you look at to analyze eddy momentum fluxes and and flux convergences? I know I've seen some graphics out there. If you wanted to relate Rossby Wave Breaking and its impact on eddy momentum flux is that something you just visualize based on looking at 500 vort?

Yeah there was a meso for sure. Could see it on radar too. I think I posted an animation of it on social media...I still have it on my phone. I'll try to post.

Also was supposed to say king not kind But yeah...the period is highly intriguing and there is some historical correlation with that date (very similar to the period centered around 05/31 with siggy severe in the Northeast). There has been some pretty decent consistency in the PNA becoming more positive while the NAO becomes a bit more negative..good signal for something. We'll see if it leads to a prolonged pattern change too...not so sure its very prolonged but way too early and too much uncertainty to speculate on that.

I edited the topic...not sure why I put Low Topped Severe Weather Potential...should have been Low Topped Squall Line Potential

Excellent job sniffing out those details, and not only highlighting them but pretty much nailing down what may transpire. You're the king when it comes to gravity waves/meso lows

Right now lacking a stronger push of llvl theta-e air to contribute to some instability, but the dynamics are certainly there. At least we'll see more heavy rain. I sort of think Potential Cyclone 16 kinda screws with us a bit.

Just in time to see Tom Brady in the AFC divisional round looking for his 35th ring

Something I've really began to notice (especially the past several years) is how often tornado wording gets tossed around on *surprise* *surprise* social media every time we see a low pressure, triple point, or warm front set-up over the area. I totally get these can produce and "you never know" but the word gets tossed around so much people probably just disregard it. We're at a point now where there is enough research, coupled with meteorological knowledge, to have an idea of what variables and combination of variables must be present to truly warrant that risk. Yesterday in my opinion had like a 1%....probably even less chance of producing a tornado...is it really even worth mentioning it for odds that are so low?

Still have that low topped squall line potential too next week!! Just need to get some elevated CAPE into here.

Oh wow...totally missed those. That's pretty dang impressive. Winds were about that strong not far from the sfc so they seem reasonable.

Although garbage cans tipped over makes it easier for the animals to eat...bears, raccoons, and other creatures need to eat too