weatherwiz

I wish I was more confident with forecasting fog. I never really cared about fog before so never done much with forecasting it, but with fog being one of the most impactful weather events to aviation I'm trying to gather more confidence. It's not very easy b/c I'm looking like 36 hours out and then you have the stupid biases of the NAM being too moist and the GFS being too dry. I think advection fog though is a bit easier to detect further out but it's the radiation fog that's not very easy...and not knowing the geographical layout of locations.

both the GFS/NAM soundings were saturated below the inversion. My only question was with winds...could winds be too strong. But wouldn't winds really be more of a factor with regards to radiation fog than advection fog? I doubt you'll really be mixing any drier air from aloft...if anything you're probably mixing air which is more moist.

Any thoughts on potential for extremely dense fog at PWM tomorrow night?

This lead s/w energy though could significantly reduce the potential

Becoming concerned over the potential for a tornado outbreak across parts of NY, PA, into NJ tomorrow. Lots of questions to be addressed and mesoscale influences will likely play a key role, but there are numerous ingredients which will be available tomorrow. Given degree of wind shear (along with high values of bulk shear, effective shear, and effective helicity), steep lapse rates (potentially with an EML plume), and strong s/w, if ingredients can fall in place tomorrow could be very nasty. If confidence in timing of ingredients increases (may not happen until tomorrow) I can see an upgrade to Mod risk being a possibility

It was quite an interesting class. I suggested it should be instituted into the major as a required class. It was offered as an elective and only b/c several students were interested in it. Even certain teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, QBO, MJO were briefly touched upon. I was fortunate enough (and it's from the bored) to have had knowledge in all this, but for those in the class who didn't they were in awe. It's tough for schools though b/c they have to follow strict AMS regulations in terms of what is required. I'm with you...I wish I had more time as well. I thought when I was back in school I would explode with all the research ideas I had been working on for the years leading up to going back and have the time to do more with learning about the weather, but working two jobs and the course/work load threw all that out the window.

My last semester I took a tropical meteorology class and the professor who taught it had his doctorate focused on tropical (and did a substantial amount of research with AEW's and the AEJ)...anyways it was an incredibly interesting class and we talked about so much which influences tropical...one of the more interesting things we discussed was actually tropical wave activity in and around the Indian Ocean as well as SST's across the Indian Ocean. Then there was the TUTT and it's influences in the Atlantic.

It's also a weak Nino (and actually using 3.4 criteria we have officially met the criteria) and I'm sure there are other factors which can certainly outweigh this. Anyways with climate change and all I don't think the whole ENSO correlation to tropical activity has as much merit as it used to have. I may be wrong since I'm going off memory, but haven't the past few Nino's actually had above-average activity in the Atlantic? With the AMO looking like it is transitioning towards the negative phase I wonder if this starts to take dominance. I haven't looked at the AMM but will have to see how that transitions moving through the spring.

A friend in Naugatuck reported 12''. I think when you're dealing with rates as intense as what we had last night some big swings in a small distance probably become more likely due to the intensity of the echos. I mean we're talking convectively enhanced precip here...very similar to summer convection where it could be a torrential downpour and 5 city blocks away it's still heavy, but not as intense.

I remember last year at school we only had like 11'' and Newtown had 16'' or 17'' lol.

I think the last few times we've had significant March snow events it's been followed by both an active severe wx season here and tornado events.

Maybe like 1/4'' here in Branford. I

Man what a horrific bust on my part...and from both calls. I for sure thought we would get solid banding across CT, but I should have known never to rely on banding alone given how fickle that could be. I also thought this might be a case where the mesos would be wrong. I

Should still see decent banding enter at least a parts of CT. Can see 850 fronto deceloping nicely. Hopefully some 700 fronto develops as well across southern areas. Maybe some spots there can still pull close to 6”

That is my biggest fear and what I was heavily basing my map on. Not going to make any changes...just going to keep as is. Would love to stay up for GFS, but tired and think I have strep

Looks like the NAM is putting the focus on this piece of energy which seems to be solely associated with convection. I agree with Dom, it can’t be tossed, but if that is not correct the NAM busts big. We would see a heavy band push over CT, RI, and SE MA

Bingo!!

This!!! Some out way too much stock into QPF forecasts.

Seems like synoptically all the ingredients which would favor developing convection remain closer to land. Best ulvl divergence is right where the convection currently is and looks like we should be seeing increasing ulvl divergence as well should help promote a northward blossoming of precip. I’m sure there may be other factors which enhance the development of convection of ocean, but ulvl seem to favor land

18z Euro still looks good for several inches along and east of 84 (but this is without looking at crazy details)

This certainly can still go either way. At least for myself, I went bullish b/c I was quite impressed with the signal for banding traversing a good part of CT. I know there had been some differences and changes to QPF, but analyzing the mid-levels and profiles I felt that despite the QPF showings the look presented is good and I don't see why precipitation shouldn't blossom and with that lift into the DGZ we would maximize things well. I do agree about the speed...this thing is hauling pretty good and that is something that can really screw the higher end of calls. At least with this though I think this is an event where you're probably at least 1/2'' (and maybe closer to 1''/HR) rates for a good part of the storm. This isn't one where you're dealing with crap growth and light rates for a few hours and end like that...it's going to be a pretty solid ordeal of snow from start to finish. There of course will be that deadly sharp-cutoff gradient somewhere which will yield a different type of hell.

The only way to tell if the mesos are handling this "shift" "cut-back" whatever you want to call it is to see how the convection is behaving and compare that to the mesos. I don't really think they'll handling the convection well. Looking at mesoanalysis and models it's tough to see convection fire off (at least a great deal of it) well east off the coast. This could be a case where mesos screw themselves.

GFS still looks good in bringing heavy banding back to central CT. Going to rip for a good 4-5 hours

If convection were to be overdone anywhere I would think it's certainly better it happened over land as opposed as to over the ocean

My winter forecasting still isn't all that great I always try to explain all my thoughts and reasoning behind my forecast (which I'll usually do in a war-and-piece long blog post). This helps to me to; 1) Understand the entire situation 2) Make sure I have covered all grounds (or as many as possible) on factors which can influence the forecast Plus it's also a great way to learn as if I say something incorrectly, interpret something wrong (hopefully) someone will call me out on it and I can correct the mistake for the future. The last and least important reason is nobody can say I ripped and read a forecast or copied anyone. I know a certain someone from school who I'm convinced rips and reads off others to make his own forecast