weatherwiz

I wish we could do weekends like we used to. I vote for the 23rd.

yup

but at least that pans out

Severe weather possible tonight...a near moderate risk just to our southwest and people are focused on snow >200 hours out???

In the middle of the woods...not running around my bedroom floor or on hot tubs

Things be changing. I've even noticed the spiders in CT are getting bigger and faster. When I'm working at my friend's dads (his yard is surrounded by some trees in the back and side) there are spiders everywhere and THEY'RE HUGE. Wolf spiders, funnel weavers, some really small brown ones which look like brown recluses. I saw a GIANT one crawling on the hot tub the other day and there was this wolf spider in the shed. they're everywhere. Like a month ago I had one on my shoulder...didn't even look to see what kind...it was huge. I threw my shirt off and ran around screaming. I recently moved to Windsor Locks and I was in my room last week and there was a HUGE black spider on my bedroom floor...quickly jumped on it...didn't even take the time to take a pic and verify the type. CT shouldn't be having these spiders.

I totally understand and agree with all points here. I guess my question is whether these extremes are becoming more frequent. If it's not record warmth it's record cold. For example this cold shot, there doesn't seem to be a whole heck of a lot of attention to it...meanwhile if this was record warmth news anchors would be naked. I think Steve made this point in the spring. I know it's not historic by any means...but that shouldn't discredit the significance. But even this past month we have seen some historic events occur...the early season snows in MT...biggest early season stuff since the 1930's...then northern Plains got nailed. I know Vegas has had 30's in October before (looks like record cold in the 1970's) but the frequency of these type of events is increasing...that's what my main point is. Like look at anomalies for tomorrow and Thursday...this is a large chunk of the country.

idk... I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are.

These anomalous events are happening so much more frequently that eventually they won't be so anomalous. nahhh...I doubt this pattern remains through the winter. Using a combination of the little I know about long-range and form what I read from the experts on twitter it seems like this is strongly correlated to some crazy +MT and -AAM (maybe its -MT)...eventually though I guess for momentum to be restored or for equilibrium something has to give and things will relax...or even reverse. Part of me wonders if it has to do with the seasonal transition as well and due to factors like MT, AAM, etc the transition period is leading to some anomalous times but as that transition becomes more "seasonal" it will relax

Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on

Yeah...I don't necessarily think the winds happen within the line or heavier pockets of rain themselves...but moreso just out ahead of them (guess that could be more synoptic related than convective?) I agree...50-60 max sounds quite reasonable. Too bad we are just off the Lakes. Kevin would be going wild.

I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport.

Yeah this could be pretty significant right off the lakes. I was shocked to see soundings so impressive right now. Could see tropical storm force sustained and hurricane force gusts. good point about the lake flooding potential

I've been meaning to start a thread for that low topped convection but I've been quite busy.

I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40

ughhh COD has been having some major issues the past few months with model runs...especially 6z. Hopefully they will be able to resolve these issues at some point.

my mistake...yeah Feb 2006...I think I said Feb 2006 in the paragraph lol. I was thinking of the December 1, 2006 severe wx event when I typed that

If there's sports talk there can be ND blizzard talk. This is an ALL OUT BLIZZARD! This is some odd station...D55 or something (not sure what these stations means) BUT HOLY ****

1. May 31, 1998 Severe Weather Outbreak - This date can actually be defined as that entire weekend (Friday, May 29 to Sunday, May 31). I was in 4th grade at the time and I was going to my sisters for the weekend who lived in Windsor Locks. I don't remember the exact timing, but we had some real nasty t'storms move through late Friday afternoon. This was a pretty decent event (though I think the worst was just southwest of SNE). IMO, this day also gets very underlooked when discussing the 5/31/98 event as it played a crucial part in the outbreak. The cold front which produced the t'storms Friday, stalled south of the region. This boundary then moved north Sunday as a warm front...and a pretty active one as it produced rain and t'storms...I think even some severe weather. Anyways...enough of the weather set-up. From watching the news and reading the newspaper, I knew there was a risk for severe weather Sunday and I was PUMPED b/c I was going to be in Windsor Locks...just b/c of the 10/3/79 event I associated Windsor Locks with a great severe spot lol. The day started off cloudy/rainy, but by mid-morning skies quickly became sunny and it got hot and humid. I think it was also the neighbors kids birthday b/c there was a party going on...the Red Sox also played the Yankees this day and scored 10 runs in the 3rd inning I think...I remember eating a banana with my two nephews and friends and we were walking up and down the street chanting, "Red Sox rule, Yankees drool". Anyways...I kept closely watching TWC and listening to the radio and the were mentioning tornadoes and I was pumped...then the watch came out. Unfortunately, since I had school the next day I had to return home to West Hartford...I was pissed b/c I wanted to stay. When I got home I didn't even have to put TWC on b/c my parents already had it on. We closely watched as the t'storms in NY started approaching CT. Finally, the storms pushed into the state and a tornado warning went out for Litchfield County and the cell was headed in our direction. My parents went into the kitchen and I heard them making preparations to get myself, two brothers, and our kitty into the basement. My two brothers were scared but I was loving it. The t'storms hit and it was NUTS...strong winds, nickel hail (first time I'd seen hail) and then...a funnel cloud (or what my dad and I swear was a funnel cloud). We were both looking out the window (towards the east) and keep it mind its like 9:30-10:00 PM and real dark...only lightning lighting up the sky. In between the two houses across the street was this incredibly low cloud that may have been rotating. I'll never forget that. Also, around this time we got a call from my sister screaming, "THERE'S A TORNADO....OH MY GOD....THERE'S A TORNADO"...Windsor Locks also doesn't have many homes with basements in them and she is freaking out b/c she had 3 kids at the time...so we told her get into either the bathroom or a closet with blankets. Turns out not a tornado but she was dead smack in the middle of the microburst. 2. December 2006 snowstorm WOW...that was wild. I think I got 14'' of snow in 3-hours; including thundersnow. Ended up with 27'' of snow...half the storm total coming in that 3-hours when the death band just sat and pivoted. By far the most snow I had ever seen...until 2013. 3. June 10, 2008 (I think it was the 10th) 20 minutes of hail...mostly pea but as big as nickle...it piled up and accumulated...never, ever seen anything like that and haven't since. The duration of the hail was unbelievable. 4. May 15, 2018 Was in Danbury on a date that day and we were just a FEW MILES from the Microbust which occurred at Candlewood Lake). Had nickle hail and just insane winds. It was so wild couldn't even hear the thunder. What was really crazy was the power went out even before the gust front got to us. 5. Blizzard of 2013 Jaw dropping snow rates and flake size...it was like a severe thunderstorm with snow...winds were pretty strong too. I think I got 27.5'' of snow or 28' which just beat out Feb 2006. The snow drifts were wild. At some point could barely even see the street from outside my window. I think snow rates were like 3-4''/hour in WeHa. But I think Steve posted getting like 5-6''/hr...those radar returns were beyond insane.

This might be one of the bigger Euro vs. GFS ever Regardless of sfc depiction...the pattern configuration advertised on both is enough to keep eyes open

It's something I think about from time to time. Like if something like a 1938 happened. I know on here we joke around about damage and all want to see that big weather event happen but if a 1938 happened today it could be quite bad. In a group text chat I'm in with some friends there are a few who live on Long Island and one of them was saying that some time ago (don't know when) there was this published report that stated if they ever had to evacuate Long Island due to a hurricane or whatever they couldn't do it...wouldn't be possible. I'm sure the word would definitely get out there but would it be portrayed correctly and would people actually listen? Hell...stores become hell when the forecast is for 5'' of snow...WTF would happen if the word is power outages for several days or weeks?

Yeah Jose. What's funny is I think that ended up being a "closer call" after the fujiwara Anyways what makes me nervous about this is the lead time to warn people may not be very much..not saying anything major is going to happen but this is a perfect place to bring up the topic. If/when we do get a big hit...the chaos alone is going to be disastrous. You would hope there could be a good 7-8 day lead time...but realistically the lead time may only be 3-4 days...that's just not enough.

I'll probably be the first to right off SNE right off the bat like 99.9% of the time...hell...a few years back that Hurricane (forget which one) where it was 3-days out and some models had it coming to us I told people at school we had no shot. Anyways...this is just entirely different...there are too many signals which allude to not writing this off. Even if it's like a 10% chance...that's much higher than usual. climo FTW

These next 14-days are going to be extremely intriguing and the east coast should be on heightened alert. Environmental conditions across the Caribbean, adjacent Atlantic waters, and in the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for TC development and strengthening. when it comes to the east coast, it's very hard to say with certainty what we're looking at, but many of the signals within the medium to long-range are a little on the concerning side. All the pieces you want to see for an east coast threat are there, however, we don't know how they'll evolve. Given those pieces are there though...this needs to be watched extremely closely.