weatherwiz

I know we don't need southern stream energy to get storms but I would like to see signals of a bit more active southern stream. It is nice seeing a PV lobe (or multiple pieces) hanging around in southeast Canada so the one thing to watch for that is any shortwaves which may swing through our region. If you just look at SLP/QPF maps for storms you can often miss these because sometimes a storm won't "pop up" until like 2-3 days out while the signal where there at H5 for 4-5 days. But we keep that PV energy around and get a southern stream vort to ride the coast...

What I'm also worried about too is and this is exactly what you said the other day...now we could run into issues where the vorts are shredded I probably jinxed that because I said the look didn't really seem like something where that would happen.

That is one helluva change from 18z versus 12z in that H5 evolution mid-to-late week holy cow.

Is the WP the CPC calculates different from the WPO? Trying to get back into this stuff and I vaguely remember discussions from a while back that the two are different.

So much attention gets paid to the NAO, but I would much rather have this combo. I would consider this probably a neutral-ish NAO but I feel like if we added a -NAO to this (like a more pronounced -NAO) that could end up screwing us in a couple ways. This is about as perfect of a look you can ask for with cross-polar flow right into our region. Also notice the trough axis...this is vastly different than anything we've seen the last few winters, even the periods where things looked "good"... there were still signals of the trough axis being too far west into the OV which opened the room for cutters. You're not getting a cutter in this look. Also, you get any southern stream energy to phase in with any northern stream energy...you're going to have some big storm potential with the degree of moisture that would be coming from the bath waters of the Gulf.

Have some sun breaking through here with some blue sky

I gotta say...I am feeling much better than I was, even from a week ago. One big difference between now and the last few winters is we are already building significant cold into western Canada and loading the cold into our source regions. This end of week system does load in that colder air here. One great plus too is that ridging which has been quite strong across the south really breaks down. This was a concern of mine because ant flexing of that ridge would really screw us and yield a favorable pattern for the OV/upper-midwest. IMO, the only way we really get screwed if this pattern does verify is if we end up suppressed and dry...now that can't be ruled out but I think we are going to have some opportunities to at least watch.

I wonder if they got any snow on Westside Campus at WestConn

This is true...this certainly has potential to set things up behind it. In that pattern behind it we would have two potential ways to get storms 1) Clippers diving southeast 2) Miller B's

I hate these stupid setups which are nothing more than just cold fronts moving through with one or multiple waves developing along them. Unless you have latitude or elevation, so much has to go right with these. There is still potential the front/wave are suppressed far enough south to give hope, but the baroclinic zone would almost certainly be just off the coast which is going to about cook anyone outside of far interior/elevation.

Going to need things to go just about perfect for Thanksgiving for anyone outside of the interior/higher elevations to get accumulating snow.

All those game are good with me but I’m also fine with waiting until after the holidays if that will yield a larger turnout

Ahh I misread...but even with tomorrow night...it actually looks even more marginal than late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

I think many have a good shot at flakes but I don't know about the hills getting even 1-3...maybe portions of the Berks get 2'' into like that far northwest CT (Norfolk).

Not even sure how great rates are going to be except in some localized banding but I think that ends up west of our region. Even like say western Connecticut...was just quick looking at soundings and maybe flakes mix in the hills but that is probably about it.

Temperatures are extremely marginal on the HRRR. Have to see what soundings/thermals look like.

Well keep in mind with respect to SST's, region 1.2 is most volatile and susceptible to rapid delta's.

If we end up in the no data category does that mean rivers/streams are all dried out and we've brunt to a crisp?

Great stuff. And for the bolded, also another concern in these setups. At least right now though, the jet doesn't look overly powerful (like we've seen with some of these setups in the past). In fact, if you look at the structure of the jet stream and jet streak...there would be a window for some brief cyclogenesis within the Northeast (or upper-Mid Atlantic) which could be enhanced by strong thermal gradient along coast.

The end of next week looks like just one of those FROPA's with a developing wave of low pressure. Two things about these setups: 1. The snow maps go absolutely bonkers with these and always spit out some "historic totals". 2. These setups almost never work for us (except farther north). With that said, like was mentioned yesterday by Will and a few others, gotta watch that PV lobe...if we can get some PV/confluence to suppress the boundary then it may work out. An overlooked aspect of these setups too can be the influences of convection across the South which can rob moisture but at least right now, this may not be something to worry about...don't see much of a signal for strong convection.

Hell, even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation

Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back?

It certainly is great seeing -WPO signals...haven't had that early in winter in a bit.

I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way.

Crazy