weatherwiz

I know the SW wind is concerning, but outside of the coast, I think I would hedge towards the colder guidance. If we were climbing into the lower 40's tomorrow inland I think it would be concerning but highs generally look mid 30's. You look too southwest across PA/NJ...that don't get much warmer. So its not like the SW wind is advecting in higher temperatures. Even the llvl warmth is shunted towards SE areas.

I think ORH county down to Kevin (or close to Kevin) are going to get a decent hit...thinking there will be a area of 4-6'' within that zone. SE of 84 still in line for at least mixing. Going to be a close call in the question mark spots...it may not take much to cool the sfc and just above given the precip rates.

Finally checked out some soundings. Outside of areas south and east of 84 and especially closer to the coast, I don't think warmth at the sfc is going to ne enough to cause concern. Perhaps initially its a mixed ptype, but seems like good upward vertical motion crosses much of, if not, the entire region. Even BDL I think could be in line for 2'' from this. GFS has a good 2-3 hour period of moderate snow at BDL. Something to really watch for Wednesday will be the wet bulbs...looks like wet bulb temps will be into the upper 20's or so. Should have room to cool down to the wet bulb during the evening.

Given the SW llvl flow and WAA...I think it's pretty telling that the NAM even keeps mostly everyone except far southeast areas at or below 0 at 925. I haven't looked at any soundings yet so there could be some sneaky warm layers within the llvls but I think the Euro is being a bit too aggressive with the warmth there.

Could be some intense snow squalls Thursday for NNE.

yeah you're right enough on the line where you have a shot for 1-2''. As we know, snowfall rates can do alot so if we can at least get some signals for a period of heavier precipitation rates that will go along way for marginal areas. That might not be enough though for coastal areas.

you have good llvl WAA moving into sub-freezing llvl temps. Elevated areas east certainly in line for some decent accumulations.

I think we need to watch for this to really blossom and just in enough time for a narrow zone of heavy snow to impact those areas I mentioned. Have to check out some 12z bufkit soundings for ORH and IJD and see what they show for lift/snow growth.

We'll see how this evolves in time for the NW Hills but I'm hedging towards highest amounts from Worcester County in northeast Connecticut with about 2-4''...I think there is a low probability someone could pull off a 5 or 6'' total.

Southeast of 84 is probably cooked. I think you should be in line for a good 1-2'' and maybe upwards of 3 depending on exactly how quickly this strengthens. One thing to watch Wednesday is how high temperatures get too. Temperatures could struggle (away from the coast) to get much above the upper 30's. Cloud cover will increase so temperatures won't drop much during the evening. Certainly elevations will be favored for 3-4'' of snow but most should at least a good coating to 1'' (away from the coast).

Yeah I'd imagine one must have a ton of different links and data sources saved that you're constantly checking daily. But ultimately, just assessing model guidance without accounting for the current state and understanding what is driving things...you're going to have an awfully difficult time in the accuracy department.

I really wish I had the time, or was fully involved with long-range and/or seasonal forecasting. It's so intriguing but at the same time incredibly frustrating. Just looking at ensembles and weeklies I feel like is a tiny fraction of what goes into such forecasting. This likely requires having immense knowledge of daily regimes across the globe, how the patterns across the globe are changing daily, and the background states and what the main drivers are.

Whatever happens, it will be great to get a region wide snowfall Wednesday night, even if its just a widespread C-2'' type deal.

Going to more to this... especially the farther south you are in the region. Obviously northern New England and higher elevations its much easier to snow, even in meh patterns or unfavorable storm tracks for those south in the region. You better cash in in the opportunities.

I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it.

Have some flakes falling

We'll see, mid-month is intriguing, obviously closer to the coast there is still some unfavorable climo to contend with but at least there is a pretty low probability for a cutter. Just keep the period of interest now and then can focus on the details as we get closer. It's great seeing a pattern where northern stream energy is digging well into the southeast.

Yeah I just looked at it wasn’t much different. We’ll see a million different variations in how sharp it is and other details between now and next week.

whats so bad about 18z for the clipper

Fair

No, no, no

I'm pretty excited for the prospects for this. Not sure if this evolves in time to give everyone several inches but I could see a scenario where eastern sections have an opportunity for several inches.

This is great to see, a nice and simple H5 map without a million shortwaves. It's easy to identify what the main player will be Unlike the last several winters where we saw something like this

I wouldn't be surprised if this did blossom in time to give eastern areas a chance for something more. This thing could pick up a quite a bit of moisture tracking over the Great Lakes and that is some pretty impressive llvl warm air advection out ahead of it. There is also room for some quick, albeit minor amplification as the shortwave digs across our area evident by a jet streak which tries developing on the western edge of the shortwave.

Quite intrigued with Wednesday night/Thursday and I know Will, Scott, and a few others highlighted this period about a week ago. Probably even further enhances the weekend potential.