weatherwiz

Think there was a brush fire on 291 around exit 4 on the eastbound side. Saw smoke and several police cars and fire truck…though I didn’t see any fire. Maybe they got it out

One more full day to get through

It's just annoying because it blows my pens off my notebook then opens the notebook and blows the pages...that is really annoying when writing. But at least it isn't a cold wind.

Its quite gusty here.

This wind is annoying...I don't want to locate inside though ughhhh

I could see BUF ripping a 60-65 knot wind report later today with those line of storms later on

Be even nicer out when these temperatures become the dewpoints

Can't believe May 1 is Thursday Just two more full days to get through

Nice out in the sun but chilly in the shade, especially with the breeze.

Yeah GFS has been quite consistent with that. I guess that period is either going to really suck or be quite warm given how close the warmth is.

Yeah that corridor should cook pretty well given the llvl airmass, lack of clouds, and strong mixing.

Was a super chilly start but climbing nicely, even from like 90 minutes ago.

You'd think we lived in the Tropics and that it should be raining every day or every other day

I mean I guess it depends on how that is being defined. We're getting precipitation but it just seems like its not enough to be beneficial to the region as a whole. Central New England is above average over the past several weeks while a good chunk of northern and southern New England are below. We are going to have precipitation opportunities upcoming...plenty of fronts moving across the country but our issue seems to be...and this has been the theme the last few years is we are struggling to get widespread synoptic driven rains. It's happened but just not enough. The other challenge with us when it comes to warm season precipitation is it becomes heavily convectively driven versus synoptic, especially late spring through late summer. Some areas will cash in and others will not. When talking about precipitation departures I think it can be very difficult to make a characterization for an entire region because of this (unless of course the departures are uniform).

I mean that is possible but there are too many timing differences to set that in stone right now. If we get any precipitation, it won't be much but I could see some showers and isolated thunder moving across much of the region Tuesday night. Thursday - Saturday should offer multiple rounds of shower and isolated thunder.

Tuesday but could be interesting across far western NY. Some big timing differences amongst guidance. Regardless though think it will be tough to get much say east of Albany. Would figure everything weakens rapidly given not much instability. A little surprised to see a D3 enhanced though across far western/southwestern NY this early in the game given differences.

Feels like winter out there today. Thankfully it’s a one and done

Not sure the coverage will be great enough for a high risk but I suppose if concern becomes great enough for violent tornadoes then a high risk may be in the cards

Going to be some violence Monday. Might not see widespread severe weather but going to see multiple discrete tornadic supercells...pretty classic environment for those. The lack of widespread will enhance the potential

Another D3 moderate risk. April has been quiet after a wild March. Hopefully May gets active and that translates this way late May and June

The key I think is going to be what develops behind the initial slug of precip. A few days ago I didn't think there was going to be convection involved, however, this has evolved to where we may get enough of a break behind the initial batch for some weak instability to develop, prompting showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. I still think the initial slug of precip is too progressive to drop widespread 1"+ totals but if something like the NAM occurs then it is very possible from the Pike southwards into CT.

I would think so too, especially if there is any convection involved. But looking at the 12z NAM...that scenario would definitely argue for a widespread 1"+ of rain.

Still seems like a widespread 0.50"-0.75" tonight into tomorrow...don't think that has changed much over the last 2-3 days in that regard. Could see some storms though late afternoon from southern VT through western MA into northwest CT.

I'm not sold on the cutoff idea until we get closer. While it isn't uncommon for cutoffs this time of year we are also in the range where models can get cutoff happy.

Those look either like pineapples or bowsers armor