weatherwiz

Well, while we still have a chunk of winter left, before we know it we'll be pushing right through spring. Birds returning and chirping for food and mating, grass growing, and trees budding. Besides all this, however, we'll be fast pushing into severe weather season and we're only 92 days away. The past few years overall have been relatively meh, not just from a severe standpoint but even from convective setups. Our best severe weather events occur with EML's or with steep lapse rates induced by a mid-level cold pool. EML events tend to occur every several years or so. As we make our final push through winter and towards spring, it's time to start gearing up for severe weather season! This is a good way to shake off some rust and discuss past events, setups, or just anything to transition the mind from winter weather forecasting to convective forecasting. 92 days to go!!!

No point in trying to explain meteorology 151

I did a little dabbling into and my thoughts were there could be a max area of 4-8'' somewhere but yeah that warm nose was a definite flag. This was a perfect setup as to when not to use snow maps...but when they're painting out 20'' or some unrealistic number...realism becomes fantasy and its just a downhill spiral from there.

Thank God I was still taking a mental break for that lol. I seriously think so many end up just disappointing themselves b/c they have some odd fetish with clown maps. Some of these products (snow maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, the wind gust maps)...get overused and are misunderstood and when they don't "verify" they blame the models for being wrong and not good...maybe its the interpretations which aren't good.

Dreading it. The most overrated, overused, and misunderstood concept on the planet

Could see some hefty snow squalls up north Thursday. Very steep lapse rates with a potent vort rotating through

Speaking of snowfall averages, whether it be monthly or seasonal, it is very possible our perception of "average is skewed". I would like to use a climo site as a test but again THE DATABASE SUCKS. But I bet looking at BOS snowfall record (on a monthly/seasonal basis) you would find a wide variation. Just adding up all those numbers and dividing by the number of years may not be totally accurate. We've certainly had some monster months and monster seasons which may be outliers. To get a truce idea of the average this stuff would have to be calculated with outliers removed.

I don't think so but I suppose it can't be ruled out. I think the bigger issue overall is the expectations we set in place as individuals. We tend to think that a favorable pattern equates to producing and it just doesn't work like that. While you can have similar patterns, how the pieces move and evolve within the pattern could be totally different. In a perfect world, we would have a complete dataset of all examples. We have an understanding of what patterns are associated with big snow events. We have the Northeast Snowstorm books which are the Bible of winter weather and we have a pretty rich database of historical events. We all can take a set of events and then create re-analysis plots and gauge similarities when it comes to the pattern. But what we are lacking is understanding how many good patterns don't produce. Historically, do good patterns produce a high percentage of the time (60-70+%) or do they produce at a much smaller percentage (10% or 20%)? This is what we don't know. The other factor too is the details. We could see a significant storm, but be a fish storm. Now because nobody got anything from it, it gets classified as a "dud"...but technically, the pattern did produce. We do seem to be struggling with good phasing events though during the winter months...whether this is just bad luck or there are influences from the climate...we can all debate this but we really won't know unless this just continues to happen year after year. We hurt ourselves probably because we try to verify weather, patterns, events based on what happens in our own backyard. Weather and patterns couldn't give two shits about anyone's backyard.

It would be nice if the MJO propagation could slow down some, especially through the more favorable phases. I guess one positive this time around entering phase 8 is the MJO signal looks a bit stronger, though there is a ton of ensemble spread. I do think we have a brief window during the second half of February for something.

I think the idea of not much hope the remainder of winter is valid. Now northern New England and higher elevations, that is a different story. They can still crank out snow events well into March and April, but for everyone else...we have to ask ourselves, what is going to be the driver to not only increase potential but to realize potential? As we move forward, we are going to have to test our luck with another round of blocking. Now, we're likely to get another period of blocking, but does that happen too late in the season to help the region as a whole or can we get it earlier to give the region a better shot? This is just one snippet since there is no way to post a loop (I don't think) without creating a gif but the prospects of getting much help/assistance from the Arctic at least through the next few weeks is very slim. The PV is fairly in tact and also becomes displaced on the other side of the hemisphere and this, combined with the PAC will just usher mild PAC air into North America. By the time we can probably make adjustments it may be too late for most of the region.

maybe in the high mountains they will be

Same thing goes with tornado season in the Plains. Everyone remembers 2011 as a historic year in terms of tornadoes and a historic spring...but what many people probably don't remember is up until shit hit the fan later in April, the season was actually off to a very slow start and it may have even been on the historically quiet side.

I'm not sure I totally buy the notion that crummy December's usually lead to below-average season's. I think most of our higher end winters usually occur because of a prolific 4-6 week stretch. I would love to explore the data but the snow database pisses me off so much I can't even use it. But I would love to know the following: For the big climo sites across the region, for each of their top 5 snowiest winters, how much (or what percentage) of that came within a certain stretch. Was it 2014-2015 when Boston got like 100''+ of snow? Literally like 80% (or more) probably came in a 4-5 week stretch. What would really help put winters into perspective is knowing how many events (defined by some accumulation value) on average occur each winter.

Trying to get back into the swing of things but I do think the first half of February is more likely to be cooked than not...not just locally, but across the country as well. We may favor sfc high pressure systems (and large ones) being a fixture. But this is just the first half of February. I could see the pattern becoming more active during the second half of the month. Some signals we could see a split pattern evolve. But one worry is we are starting to hedge towards the wrong side of climo and if Canada becomes flooded with milder air it may be difficult to re-load Arctic air into Canada. We can certainly still win in this, but it becomes more difficult because you just need more to go right. Maybe we ca re-load some blocking later into the month or early March. I am a bit bummed how things have turned out and bummed about the prospects for February. After about mid-March I will be ready for spring/summer.

These flakes are massive. Ground all coated up. Coming down quite heavy too.

Thank you everyone. The support I've gotten here and all over has been incredible and such a wonderful help. It's great to be surrounded by so many wonderful people.

Thanks everyone, it means alot.

What a horrific week. My mom passed away early Tuesday morning (though there is some solace in that it was in her sleep...it was getting to the point where she was starting to get uncomfortable with not being able to breathe) and then not even 24 hours later, the step-mom to my older siblings and who was essentially like a second mom to my and my two younger siblings passed away too.

Was just looking at some soundings at the GFS. Certainly nothing which would scream warmth...unless you live at H85

This. Those touting that this was going to be a milder winter with less snow just because of a strong EL Nino can put the tout in reverse. There was a lot going into this EL Nino which signaled this was not going to be a typical strong EL Nino (regardless of whatever the ONI said) and alot indicating this EL Nino may behave strangely. I've been super busy but in the upcoming days I want to look at where we stand thus far in terms of averaged H5 anomalies and compare to your "typical" EL Nino. I am curious to see if how things stand now fit the mold of how EL Nino events seemed to have evolved over the past few decades.

Yup...and with that I am not giving up on February. Let the trolls do whatever they want to do. But the potential is there and that's all we can roll with. If signs were pointing to big torch and massive ridge then I'd give up but that is not the case. Sure we'll see that but it will be temporary.

It's a situation like this though which really drives me further. TBH, I feel like I would have learned much more from this winter being totally wrong versus being more right than wrong.

I am very disappointed in this winter, or at least this month. I am very happy I got 10.5'' in that storm a few weeks back and earlier this week got like 3-4'' and to fall during the day when I can just work at my desk and watch it snowing outside. Now February could deliver, but I for sure thought we would have been smacked this month. While I was aggressive in my winter thinking, it was certainly in the back of my mind it may not work out that way. What's been the more frustrating aspect though is the trolls who just come in here now and then and waste 2 of their 5 posts claiming to be the next Messiah or whoever and said they knew how this winter would be because of the EL Nino strength. That is hog wash bullshit. I've said this before, but when it comes to long-range or seasonal forecasting and getting into specifics such as seasonal snowfall or understanding what patterns will deliver and when, we're lacking something to help with this understanding. When it comes to winter storms in the Northeast, we have the Northeast Snowstorms books which is the meteorology version of the Bible. These books are absolutely incredible. When it comes to severe weather/tornadoes we have Significant Tornadoes book and studies on major outbreaks. Essentially we have an uncanny amount of information on events and patterns which produced. I know the Northeast Snowstorms volumes go into some of the near hits and misses, but IMO we really are lacking in this department. I really wish we had the ability to create some database on this. We all know and understand ridge in west and trough in east is generally good for winter lovers in the Northeast. But this doesn't always work out and what we don't know is the probability. There has been work done by various forum members over the years breaking down snowfall statistics and typing into ENSO phase, ENSO structure, and even incorporating NAO, AO, PDO, etc. None of the correlations ever seemed strikingly high though. One thing I want to do soon is go back and revisit December/January and create daily composites and watch how everything unfolded day-to-day. Part of what makes things worse too is how we are assessing and looking for storm threats. I remember back when I first joined the boards and even through the early 2010's...there would be alot of focus on upper-levels and pattern evolution. Now that still happens and some do try to provide that insight but it gets drowned out. Now its just OP SLP/QPF maps 300+ hours out being used as a baseline to justify there is a storm potential or just claiming an upcoming stretch has "potential" because the snowfall maps for a period show 40''.

Thank you! It's certainly not easy at all. It's one of, if not probably the worst part of life (at least on an individual level). Maybe in the grand scheme of things there are worse but this definitely sucks.

Thank you! Unfortunately, this is not something she will recover from so it’s the stage of just being comfortable. Not really sure. It smelled like plastic burning or something even worse.