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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Well even if this one doesn't work out, at least through much of the remainder of the month both the northern and southern streams look active. I think the northern stream being active in we can get good storms from northern stream alone. I like the southern stream being active, and coincident with the northern stream, in that it offers potential for significant cyclogenesis off the EC. chances will not be limited.
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What really sucks about this too is, if these discrepancies remain over the next few days there isn't a heck of a lot we can do. It's not like the error is resulting from sampling or lack of sampling. It looks like its just a result of how quickly the southern stream reaches maturity and exactly how strong the jet streak gets as it rounds the base of the trough and when this starts to occur. There are so many factors which can play into this that we may not know for sure until real-time Monday morning.
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I agree with this, I think its either a dumping for NNE or we see a southern track with light snows/accumulations into the region. People need to be really careful with this one and focus on the confluence and forget the model snow maps (and I'm serious with this one). This reminds me a bit of a setup in 2018 I think it was (not saying the setup is similar) where QPF/snow maps were destroying us, even a day or two out, and confluence won. I remember some forecasts for southern CT were like 10-18'' (maybe even more) and we got like 2-3'' in Danbury when I was at school. I have a feeling no one model is truly going to win this one. There has already been so much spread from run-to-run and model-to-model. While this isn't anything new for this stage of the game, I think it's something we continue to see until we're within inside 2 days. I am not sure how the NAM will handle this, but I would suspect it will be the worst of them all (I guess that isn't saying much though).
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Phasing events should always be treated in their own category. Phasing is really all about timing. Even if you have spot on consistency for multiple cycles and for multiple days, as you get closer something could muck up the timing. Until the energy within the two streams is being sampled well and models are initializing with consistency and there is a solid understanding of the downstream pattern, these can be a pain. We've seen some storms in the past where it looked like timing wasn't going to work out and then around D3...boom.
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What ends up helping everyone out too is how the entire system closes off as it is passing just to our east. Would see some a good deal of dynamic cooling in that scenario and very hefty CCB which would more than likely traverse the entire region. Essentially, if this solution were to verify I don't think I'd complain.
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Would love the phasing to take place later obviously but it's great to finally see something involving a text book phase between the northern stream and southern stream. Not sure what room we have to get a later phasing, but certainly still far enough out to where that is possible, although I imagine we would want to start seeing that signal in the next day or two.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Saturday should be quite warm. Probably see a lot of upper 50's away from the water unless something drastic happens. I wouldn't rule out some places hitting 60-61. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Perhaps its not a coincidence winters went downhill since I gave up both -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Gotcha...thanks! I had that reversed. And you can see the potential that lies with the upcoming look. Obviously whether or not we can get all the moving pieces to time together is another story, but this is why you focus on pattern first then divulge into details once you get within range. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I love the consistency regarding the blocking; both in terms of evolution and placement. I'd be hard pressed to believe there will not be multiple threats over the course of a few weeks. I know there has been a debate as how long this look holds, but I can see it hanging on the longer side. I don't mind the weakening block look b/c as long as the hemispheric configuration remains undisturbed, I could see the block regaining some strength and this would offer another period of potential...maybe even greater potential (for a larger event). -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
what I mean is it is getting tossed around and used too much. An OP run 12 days out showing a storm tracking well south doesn't necessarily mean or equate to suppression. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Suppression is quickly becoming another overused term -
New England Seasonal Snowfall Historical Records
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Well said, this is an excellent post! Couldn't agree any more with this. -
New England Seasonal Snowfall Historical Records
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
It's fun doing this stuff. When you look at the data, especially if you graph it, you can easily see we go through stretches of horrible periods and periods where we get nailed. While I think most understand that, what drives me nuts is how some blame the lull now on AGW. Now, I am a believer that human activity is escalating climate change, but I'm not going to blame every anomalous weather event and what not on AGW. -
New England Seasonal Snowfall Historical Records
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
@ORH_wxman Has snowfall for ORH been measured at the same location since records began or did the location change at some point? I've gone through and compiled a list of seasons below the 10th percentile and above the 90th for the major climo locations and for ORH I found it super interesting that since the 1950's any anomalous season is likely to be in the top percentile vs. the lowest. The first 50 years on record any anomalous season was virtually on the lower side And for those wondering, there is a reason why I am doing this. I've never dabbled much into the historical snowfall climatology but now that I am getting back into seasonal forecasting, it's important I better understand the climatology and I like playing around with data in different ways.