weatherwiz

the HRRR is WAYYYYYYYY off

RIP to those who didn't listen to Kevin.

Nice

If we had the steep mid-level lapse rates in place I would be pretty concerned with that 3km look. I'm sure we're going to get convection to fire today but it may really struggle to strengthen much...the dynamics will help a bit but its really warm in the mid levels.

It always intrigues me when the 3km is on the aggressive side b/c more often than not it is meh...and ends up nailing it. Anyways, 12z observed soundings are kind of garbage...though the BUF sounding shows stronger shear aloft which should overspread western areas later

The one other thing I really need to start doing is something like a weekly monitoring/assessment once we enter the Fall. Take some time and assess the real-time global regime, analyze how forecast models are evolving the pattern globally, and closely analyze the medium/long range and then try and do some sort of verification once we get into that time range. I just hope I get time to do this...I start grad school in a few months and doing 2 classes + still working so I am going to have to discipline myself

Agreed, probably not flushed out quite yet. One thing I really want to explore though is getting a better understanding of the wildfire smoke and that volcanic eruption from, what a year or two ago and developing much more knowledge of the chemical reactions which occur higher in the atmosphere. I know there must be multiple papers on this so that's where i will start but I have to think these episodes have had a much greater impact and is being overlooked. I mean the abundance of the smoke (assuming its getting into the stratosphere but the water vapor from the eruption)...the concentration of the particles have had to impact how the upper atmosphere structures and evolves.

I plan on doing this shortly. I've been working on composites a bit. I also want to work on a different approach which isn't as ENSO focused...which will help this year given we may be more neutral-ish. But I was thinking this...we are at a much different atmospheric state across the hemisphere now than we have been over the last several years, particularly across the PAC/CONUS...may not mean anything but we have been saying we need the atmosphere to flush out and maybe this is it!

One of my favorite parts of convective forecasting is the nowcasting element! Yes it has, even elsewhere across the country too. 3km did much better in the midwest yesterday.

Was hoping I could sneak it by Oh I know haha...I don't mind it but it's not as fun if I don't push back a little

I am not sure what to think of with the HRRR...it really struggled in the midwest leading up to yesterday and even during the day.

ehhh this is where people get super confused. Not every convective event is about severe weather. I'm a weather enthusiast, I enjoy thunderstorms and I enjoy snow. But I think it often gets misunderstood that whenever I talk about convection or say we have a chance for severe weather that it automatically means widespread severe weather, that is not the case. 99% of our convective events result in localized severe weather. Even in the Great Plains and midwest not every convective event is a widespread high-end event. Sure they get them wayyyy more frequently than we do. I get excited for thunderstorms...whether that comes with the chance for a 40 mph wind gust, pea hail, or just some heavy downpours with lightning. People get excited for 2-3 inches of snow in winter, don't they? or get excited just to see snow falling? It's the same concept, only difference is the scale of the two phenomena.

Agreed, this looks much worse than I was hoping to see this morning. Looks like dynamics aren't as strong as modeled and looking at the lapse rates was a big blow to the gut. The steep lapse rates (~ 7 C/KM) IMO were a big driver in the potential today. But who knows...maybe instead of widespread storms forming into a line we see more discrete stuff with the pre-frontal.

Not saying this is a positive or negative for today, however, sometimes I think there is too much focus on the timing of the actual cold front for our region. 9 times out of 10, the focus for our convection is a pre-frontal trough and never with the actual cold front. In the rare setups where we get moderate-to-extreme instability, that is where we can get a second round of convection with the cold front but when it comes to forcing/dynamics its usually s/w track and timing and pre-frontal trough. Now...more often than not the better dynamics are typically tied in close proximity to the cold front. Pre-frontal troughs can be a huge boost for us but they also kill alot of our opportunities.

The fog is going to erode rather quickly, except maybe valleys

mlvl lapse rates are much worse than modeled. Wonder if the air got totally overturned from the convection yesterday across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Have to see what some of the 12z soundings look like.

Hoping to get 62 knots at BDL tomorrow

62 knots IND!!!

IND about to get smoked

Hopefully we get a solid MCS...been quite some time since we had a solid legit MCS roll through

Don't models tend to poorly handle MCS propagation, especially in these regimes? Models in general though seem to struggle with how convection behaves when you have sharp instability gradients. In real time the convection will follow the instability axis but models tend to place a greater emphasis on other variables. Anyways look at the GFS and where it tracks the MCS then look at MUCAPE...if we were to fast forward to verification time my bet would be the MCS making a sharp turn across southwestern NY into PA.

My initial wondering/thinking is whether the models are too far northeast with the MCS. Verbatim I am wondering if this would track to our southwest as that is where the instability gradient is most defined.

Likely some certainly helping but I think they've also been along an instability gradient and there have been subtle vorts moving through

I wouldn't focus on model 2m output this far out...outside of looking at it for fun. As always, there are going to be several factors which are going to determine exactly how high temperatures get and these are more for the mesoscale time frame. If anything is going to hinder us it will end up being high clouds passing through. This would be something MOS won't pick up so as we get closer if MOS has 101 or 102's...better be checking potential for high clouds and what MOS has for dews and whether it looks overmixed

Where is ineedsnow