weatherwiz

Anyone think Costco's will be open tomorrow? Want to try and go chasing after work but I need to go to Costco

Think its safe to toss the HRRR

This could also scale back the upper end of heat potential Monday

HRRR seems wonky with the dews...wonder if thats why?

Connecticut (particularly along and southeast of 84) and Rhode Island should be prime today

Not entirely shocked at the slight risk designation. We've had some worse setups get a slight risk designation That is a really well-defined s/w trough moving into the region with good height fields and increasing dynamics with cooling aloft. I would be shocked if storms aren't numerous tomorrow and evolve into multiple short-line segments or clusters

maybe!

the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather.

Yup…don’t see that too terribly often here. Cool to see

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Brother lives in new Britain and lighting hit something about 1/10th of a mile from his house

Those storms exploded along the outflow

Surprised at the 1” hail tag. Tough to get 1” hail in this setup. Poor lapse rates and very warm aloft. Would need a monster updraft to achieve that.

And it gets warned

Quite breezy out ahead of this

Also looks like some dewpoint pooling ongoing with a theta-e ridge overhead. MLCAPE ~2000 not bad given the poor mid-level lapse rates. Any severe risk though should be extremely localized. DCAPE is meh with pretty poor 2-6km lapse rates and llvl shear is not much. So just going to be some torrential rain (poor drainage flooding risk) and maybe some good CGs

It is! Seems to be evolving nicely. Satellite shows great upscale growth with cooling cloud tops. Might even be a weak sea breeze front which aids in development within south-central CT.

Not saying we see much severe but we may see a pretty solid line of torrential rain and thunderstorms evolve right along the 84 corridor.

short term trends looking favorable from about MA Pike into norther CT in a few hours

Only limiting factors I see towards greater coverage are the "lower dewpoints" - 60's aren't bad but would like to see like 68-70+ and llvl convergence looks a little weak. Anyways, steep lapse rates aloft and good height falls so can't sleep on it

Good call

It's been a great gradual increase in warmth/humidity through the day. Working outside and I've really felt this increase in the last few hours. The sweat slowly develops and you can feel yourself starting to stick to the leather chair all so slowly...its like applying a fine strip of super glue to a broken piece of glass. My shorts are that glue

Torched mid-levels suck.

That is true But I think 2-6km lapse rates are a better metric to use when assessing damaging wind gusts potential versus the standard "low-level lapse rates" which I think are measured 0-3km?

hmmm...not sure what he is referring to with steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates are garbage so I am assuming he means low-level lapse rates...but not sure how steep those are tomorrow regionally due to lots of cloud cover. Probably a better chance llvl lapse rates are steeper across southeast PA into NJ but not sure if they will be anything to write home about. Not sure I see much risk for an isolated tornado there...if any risk existed it would be in central New England, closer to the warm front. Winds down there veer more in the llvls as the warm front lifts farther northeast.