weatherwiz

Not as confident out towards the Cape. I always have low confidence out there since I never go into great depth looking. Spent alot of time trying to digest the banding potential and highest total swath. I almost didn't want to include that area and go with a larger range because its going to be very difficult to determine how that evolves.

Forecast https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/02/tuesday-february-13-2024-winter-storm.html

I wonder if the NAM is chasing convection here

It is. The 3km NAM also aligns more with my thinking currently. I've never been big on the NAM for this type of system and was just more curious with how it would handle banding over anything else. The NAM has been more inconsistent run-to-run than most other models. I am inclined to toss it...but there is always that worry it "sniffs" something out. Working on a snowfall forecast now.

the 3km seems nothing like the 12z. I've seen the two differ before but WTF

no precip going on though.

The upper end of totals is going to be held back just due to how quickly this is racing through. I think it's still a challenge as to what the upper range is but I would think it will be tough for even the hardest hit areas to get more than a foot.

That is moreso down across northern CT into southern MA. Precip is knocking on the NH border at that time

Yeah 3km does look a few degrees warmer. Interesting...not sure what to make of that. Seems slow to cool

3km has a little warm nose around H7 within southern CT. Going to be some power issues right along the southern flank of these totals where the snow is wet...especially with some wind. Even BDL I wonder if they could gust 30-35 mph.

Death band of fronto on the NAM.

Was just looking at 6z GFS bufkit for BDL and its pretty wild. Should see a good 3-4 hours where rates are anywhere from 1.5''/HR to as high as 2.5''/HR.

I’m thinking like 12” for me. Not 11.5, not 11.8, not 10.2, not 13.1, not 12.1”…but a nice solid foot

For some yes…but I think there will be some downside surprises as well. It’s just natural in this type of setup.

If that banding materializes quick enough I think Ray has a good shot for 15” or so. This one will have lots of surprises, on the high and low side. It will be what it will be

Well considering I may get a foot of snow and wet snow I finally uninstalled the A/C in the bedroom.

BDL 18z GFS bufkit...holy crap.

Yeah there's alot with the 700 low that has me nervous. I think this is going to be a nice storm but still lots of questions to resolve.

I'm not sure how I feel about these elongated llvl + mlvl lows. This is going to be an insanely difficult forecast. There will be busts in the higher direction and the lower direction I think and I'm not even sure how you portray that within a forecast.

Yes, there is a great deal of uncertainty with it and there is no way to know for sure right now exactly where it holds up. That's why I've held off on making any type of forecast at this point. But what I'm looking at is as we get closer, how will the modeled band be in relation to what occurs? My thinking is at verification time, the banding is going to end up being northwest of where the models are pinpointing. Looking at where the models show the highest QPF axis 12 hours out and saying that is the sweet spot may not work out that way.

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

yeah that's what I'm thinking...that's why I think it is going to be difficult to exceed a foot with this, though not impossible. Right now though I'm thinking 10-16'' for max zone but I'll do a forecast tomorrow.

what does 15z look like?

bufkit has some decent winds down at HVN