weatherwiz

The NAM argues for a an organized swath of wind damage from central/southern CT across RI and SE Mass. NAM has some major dewpoint pooling through the afternoon with dewpoints into the mid 70's. Despite the weak lapse rates 2000+ MLCAPE and 35-40+ knots of bulk shear is pretty hefty for these parts.

Is there an easy way to compare across different climate periods? that would be sick if on the Daily Climate Reports it gave the anomaly compared to different climatological periods.

Looks like that pre-frontal trough may slide through early in the day. This could mess up quite a bit with the forecast, however, I think we would have to watch for some enhanced supercell potential from Mass Pike (maybe just south) into central Connecticut early PM.

Maybe another microburst in the same area that got smoked Sunday

I wonder if we get screwed by that feature which moves through in the morning and it results in just isolated activity later in the afternoon. A pretty pronounced wind shift occurs in the morning and we turn sfc winds more westerly (probably why this dropped the TOR area). But yeah I was just looking at some bufkit soundings and there is enough hail CAPE for the strongest of cores to have a shot.

So sorry for your loss. I thoroughly enjoyed reading his posts and interactions over the years. My thoughts and condolences to you and your family.

Boooo 12z took away the tornado area and also added a small corridor for hail...not sure we have any hail potential given how crazy warm it is aloft. Maybe far NNE with early developing cells

GFS trying to get an EML in here next week and we'll have to watch for some days into the 90's with 70 dews

I don't disagree with that. When you have these mornings after a super hot/humid day and you bring in this airmass overnight it feels great in the morning. It's hard to explain but because it got cool quickly last evening, I hated it more this morning lol. Like say it was really humid during the evening and then cooled overnight...I would have enjoyed better.

It was lower 50's...that's certainly cool. If people's houses were 50's they'd be turning on the heat.

Not full blown...just enough to eliminate the chill. Outside of our bedroom and living room where the ACs are cranking down to like 66 the rest of the house is like 75-80...so going from that to 50's is a bit of a shock lol. 50's and sun...fine...50's with no sun set...not fine

Wow...that is incredible!!! The part where you have the warm/moist air along the FFD feeding into wall cloud and funnel was probably my favorite part. That was probably the best visual/simulation I've ever seen. Granted this was one of the most textbook tornadoes captured on record but still. This deserves to be included in any severe wx class (undergrad or graduate).

Heavily debated throwing the heat on in the car for a bit this morning. Was chilly when I got in.

I really wish alot of these resources were dedicated to what we have an improving on them instead of like "recreating the wheel". One thing I'll say though is regarding severe weather and tornadoes, the amount of data which is being collected on the ground (especially with drones), I would think AI could be used to vastly enhance our understanding of what exactly is occurring leading up to tornadogenesis and help better answer the question of why some mesocyclones will drop a tornado while other's don't. If we can better understand these processes we can then build them into a model and I could see AI yielding some major break throughs. Absolutely agreed with the bolded!

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar scenario to the other day occur. I think we can maintain stuff into the mid-evening and probably to the coast. Decent shortwave and forcing with modest height falls. I could see a scenario where storms are maintained by developing cold pools. Looks good for a few microbursts

Friday is pretty interesting...I mean it sucks that H5 temps are only around -5C but dews 73-75 should help compensate for weak mlvl lapse rates but that is some pretty good shear with ~2000 MLCAPE.

Didn't meant to imply they don't initialize with the same data but the backbone behind it all is the quality of the data being ingested, the amount of data, and then the physics/calculus operations being performed and if there are errors or poor performance on this, well AI or not, the modeled forecast is going to struggle. I really can't wait though for quantum computing!

I'll give this a watch tonight!

Part of my skepticism with the AI stuff too is (and I'm not sure if this applies across all AI models because I'm sure there are different techniques and practices) the physics and chemistry is infinitely more complex then just training a model to produce a forecast based on historical measures. To my understanding, there are AI models in the works (like the google one) where there is very little involvement of calculus and physics equations and one of the reasons why it can process more quickly. If I am wrong on that - please let me know. One of, if not, the biggest reasons why we see forecast models struggle at times is due to boundary layer initialization, errors which result from approximations when deriving equations, and errors from parameterization. AI isn't just going to fix or magically solve this alone. So when we're dealing with complex weather systems which have complex evolutions AI is going to do no better than other guidance and if anything, will only add to uncertainties because it's just another tool in the toolbox and you'll have people who probably side with the AI just because AI seems to be taking over and nobody wants to use critical thinking anymore. Until we are able to better understand, measure, and parameterize complex processes and evolution and further improve model resolution (vertical/horizontal) and introduce something like quantum computing which will have the resources needed to do this, AI isn't going to be the game changer we need when it comes to forecasting complex weather systems and extreme weather events. Just my two cents.

I want to start putting more time aside to research this further, but the one question I have right now is, what is the run-to-run consistency of the AIFS (and other AI models)? If the run-to-run consistency is there and its outperforming other guidance then that would be extremely noteworthy. But in terms of the extreme weather events, this is where we need to be developing "better forecasts" and improving communication skills. This is what is having a greater impact on human lives and decision making. Part of the challenges in this regard is the lower level of confidence that arises due to forecast model inconsistencies (whether that be run-to-run or model-to-model). Who cares if the AIFS is nailing a forecast high of 87 9 days out when the ECMWF maybe had 84 or 93. But to my post, this is where utilizing AI in the nowcast/short-term could have extreme benefits in extreme weather forecasting. Quantum computing is going to be a major game changer.

The Euro would be rocking for some MCS/derecho potential. Northwesterly flow aloft and I bet the sfc we're probably right on the gradient of rich theta-e air

I saw this the other day. While I am extremely skeptical with the AI stuff and the movement with AI within the field, this is something I think is worst investing resources in regarding AI...short-term/nowcasting, not medium-range. I think there is tremendous potential in this regard when it comes to improving lead times with severe weather and flash flooding. Glad you threw in there the caveat too...that is something that should definitely be made aware and realized by everyone reading the study. But I am excited for this.

Absolutely...if anything looks good into northern CT that's where I'll be. I'm a little upset...there is an empty lot in between the Spare Time Bowling Alley and that hotel. A friend of mine pointed it out 3 years ago and I started sitting there. It was great because you had a bit better view being a bit farther back from the building across from McDonalds on the airfield. But the lot is not blocked off with cinderblocks what I really need to do though is find a good viewing spot within Suffield towards Thompsonville. BDL is great for the views but I feel like more often than not the best stuff happens along Suffield/Thompsonville.

The usual caveats apply with poor mid-level lapse rates Friday, however, could be a few nasty storms around

Don't have to, the south climate is moving up here