weatherwiz

No but I feel like I've been seeing more lately.

I am really torn on tomorrow...CT could be ground zero for greatest risk of damaging winds but I think this is highly dependent on the dewpoints. The HRRR really mixes dewpoints out and then increases them ahead of the front across southern CT and I guess its no surprise this is where the HRRR intensifies the line. Heck even the GFS mixes them out. But looking at the llvls...I don't see dews really mixing out. I'm inclined to side with the NAM here which would argue for a big day across CT.

I'm calling a Hamden microburst tomorrow.

He looks like Borat

I wonder if we may actually see a splitting supercell or even a left moving supercell tomorrow

Looking at BDL quickly looks like between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, the greatest increase is the minimum temperature in December, nearly a +3 increase. (Just did a quick eyeball so maybe another month is greater)

That is pretty mind blowing.

The NAM argues for a an organized swath of wind damage from central/southern CT across RI and SE Mass. NAM has some major dewpoint pooling through the afternoon with dewpoints into the mid 70's. Despite the weak lapse rates 2000+ MLCAPE and 35-40+ knots of bulk shear is pretty hefty for these parts.

Is there an easy way to compare across different climate periods? that would be sick if on the Daily Climate Reports it gave the anomaly compared to different climatological periods.

Looks like that pre-frontal trough may slide through early in the day. This could mess up quite a bit with the forecast, however, I think we would have to watch for some enhanced supercell potential from Mass Pike (maybe just south) into central Connecticut early PM.

Maybe another microburst in the same area that got smoked Sunday

I wonder if we get screwed by that feature which moves through in the morning and it results in just isolated activity later in the afternoon. A pretty pronounced wind shift occurs in the morning and we turn sfc winds more westerly (probably why this dropped the TOR area). But yeah I was just looking at some bufkit soundings and there is enough hail CAPE for the strongest of cores to have a shot.

So sorry for your loss. I thoroughly enjoyed reading his posts and interactions over the years. My thoughts and condolences to you and your family.

Boooo 12z took away the tornado area and also added a small corridor for hail...not sure we have any hail potential given how crazy warm it is aloft. Maybe far NNE with early developing cells

GFS trying to get an EML in here next week and we'll have to watch for some days into the 90's with 70 dews

I don't disagree with that. When you have these mornings after a super hot/humid day and you bring in this airmass overnight it feels great in the morning. It's hard to explain but because it got cool quickly last evening, I hated it more this morning lol. Like say it was really humid during the evening and then cooled overnight...I would have enjoyed better.

It was lower 50's...that's certainly cool. If people's houses were 50's they'd be turning on the heat.

Not full blown...just enough to eliminate the chill. Outside of our bedroom and living room where the ACs are cranking down to like 66 the rest of the house is like 75-80...so going from that to 50's is a bit of a shock lol. 50's and sun...fine...50's with no sun set...not fine

Wow...that is incredible!!! The part where you have the warm/moist air along the FFD feeding into wall cloud and funnel was probably my favorite part. That was probably the best visual/simulation I've ever seen. Granted this was one of the most textbook tornadoes captured on record but still. This deserves to be included in any severe wx class (undergrad or graduate).

Heavily debated throwing the heat on in the car for a bit this morning. Was chilly when I got in.

I really wish alot of these resources were dedicated to what we have an improving on them instead of like "recreating the wheel". One thing I'll say though is regarding severe weather and tornadoes, the amount of data which is being collected on the ground (especially with drones), I would think AI could be used to vastly enhance our understanding of what exactly is occurring leading up to tornadogenesis and help better answer the question of why some mesocyclones will drop a tornado while other's don't. If we can better understand these processes we can then build them into a model and I could see AI yielding some major break throughs. Absolutely agreed with the bolded!

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar scenario to the other day occur. I think we can maintain stuff into the mid-evening and probably to the coast. Decent shortwave and forcing with modest height falls. I could see a scenario where storms are maintained by developing cold pools. Looks good for a few microbursts

Friday is pretty interesting...I mean it sucks that H5 temps are only around -5C but dews 73-75 should help compensate for weak mlvl lapse rates but that is some pretty good shear with ~2000 MLCAPE.

Didn't meant to imply they don't initialize with the same data but the backbone behind it all is the quality of the data being ingested, the amount of data, and then the physics/calculus operations being performed and if there are errors or poor performance on this, well AI or not, the modeled forecast is going to struggle. I really can't wait though for quantum computing!

I'll give this a watch tonight!