weatherwiz

Was shocked SPC didn’t introduce a 2% TOR area for tomorrow. May see it today or tonight and eventually a 5% area once details are better defined

This breeze is annoying.

Outside of lapse rates, Sunday isn't a terrible setup. Have to iron out the timing and details a bit better but could have potential for a few tornadoes. Shear is pretty decent and instability looks beefy despite the weak lapse rates.

Yeah its been a while since we've seen a legit airmass like this. I was actually just looking off to the north and east and noticed how blue the sky is...haven't seen it this crisp in a while. Noticed the moon overhead too

They're more like dew point fronts And outside of this past front, it's been dews going from 72-74 to 65-70 lol.

We're also probably setting up for a derecho that develops within Iowa then rips across the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic later this month.

It's insane. I mean we're supposed to get cold fronts that move through and bring in these type of airmasses. This is still summer weather for us. We aren't supposed to be 90/75 for weeks and months on end...this isn't the tropics lol. 85/59 is just as much summer weather here as is 92/70.

Cool breeze out there this morning. It kind of sucks actually. If you want a cool breeze just open and close your freezer door quickly for 5 straight minutes.

I could picture @ineedsnowcamping there overnight in his car and waiting up to see if frost develops on his hood.

was waiting for that 5% TOR today

I follow him and talk to him every now and then. I think he just graduated HS a few years ago but for his age he is extremely smart. His posts are solid quality IMO

Saturday is probably ~85-88F interior

Nantucket may get smoked

won't be that warm but add a good 4-7F to those temps

the dews will be low but toss those NAM temps

should be a few nice supercells up in northern Maine today...hopefully there are moose skywarn trained

I wonder if we'll ever be able to get an EML/approaching shortwave to time during a period when its like 95/76 region wide and get MLCAPE 4000-5000 J/KG with 40-50 knots of shear. That's how we'd probably ever get a high risk again (well at least probably NY/PA and maybe extreme western sections of SNE). When I used to be bored I would write discussions with parameters like that here...this could actually verify one day.

That's cute

Hoping the Sunday front can slow down by a few hours

Can't wait until we're ripping 80-82F dewpoints in August

Remember back in the days when (especially when looking at soundings for thunderstorm potential) the NAM would show 72-73+ dewpoints and it would be tossed for being too high

yup...essentially what I was getting at but just didn't add that in

Was looking over SSTs and SSTAs in the western Atlantic and if we continue the theme of not getting cold fronts into the ATL we re going to be playing with fire come Aug/Sep.

I was explaining this to my girlfriends parents...though not sure they fully grasp it living in Florida. I think their takeaway was "oh my God that's chilly" when I talked about how lows should be down into the 50's within northern New England

Things just seem much different. Our breaks from this stuff used to be like several days...heck, we could go weeks without 70+ dews. I seriously think we're going to get some stretches moving into August where dews are 77-80F. It's also not helping matters that oppressive dews are being transported well into the upper-Midwest and into central Canada so what used to drying out NW or WNW flows turns into just another source region for higher dews lol. So our fropas result in dews going from 70's to 60's to round 70 lol