weatherwiz
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Yeah I’ve noticed that..they seemed to be primed for timing in that period of time.
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Actually scratch that...I totally assessed this incorrectly. That main slug of heavy rain moving through, while there may be some embedded convection, any risk for strong wind gusts is actually tied into the potential for scattered thunderstorms to re-develop behind that area...but that doesn't apply to us, that will be more central PA like what is advertised on the HRRR
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I think that makes the most sense. There may be some convective feedback going on with the NAM. The NAM seems to want to slow the progression of everything a bit and then develops a few weak waves (which could be convective feedback) and prolongs the heavier precipitation with some back building.
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Wow...I thought the 12z NAM was wet for tomorrow but then I compared to 6z and 0z and didn't realize how wild the 6z was with rainfall totals. I would have to think there could be some minor flooding concerns tomorrow if the NAM is correct.
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I'm ready for the warm. My 20 minute infatuation with March 9 is over. It was cute to have some fun with it and get all aroused with fantasy but time to revert back to reality.
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Wow AFW 66 knots, DFW 64 knots with that line of thunderstorms this morning...why we can't get that.
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Seriously...I mean if this doesn't make it obvious then I don't know what will. BOS was -0.9 ORH/PVD about average I don't remember when ORH was looked at/corrected and I thought there were some questions too...but BDL somehow getting +1.2 when these other sites were not even remotely close...bogus. It's just crapping up the data base.
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How did BDL manage to still run +1.2 for the winter
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That line that rolls through tomorrow evening is going to pack a punch in terms of rainfall intensity. Forcing and dynamics are enough to where there may be some embedded thunder/lightning but instability is quite limited. It is possible maybe within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut could see a localized damaging wind gust. Should see some gusty winds though for most out ahead of that line...nothing wild though...25-35 mph.
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I really love how you snapped two photos; one with the shop signs and one without. It's amazing the differences in the contrast of the photos but the bottom one really stands out to me. That is such a great capture.
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Not sure I would describe it as a phantom storm by the gfs. It's a product of phasing...the GFS is more favorable with both streams and promotes a better likelihood for phasing. It's not like a GFS solution doesn't make sense. If the GFS solution didn't make much sense then I would agree it is phantom but it wouldn't take much from the euro to output something closer to the GFS...and on the other hand it wouldn't take much from the GFS to lessen this idea.
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Verbatim more of a Sunday ordeal
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I don't blame you I mean I am all ready for full out Spring but if there is a chance or something looks good...why the hell not. I do think one huge difference between now and what we've seen this winter is such an intense system that is going to end up southwest of Greenland. This is going to re-define the whole structure of the Arctic and this is helping to enhance a PAC which wasn't too terrible looking but going from meh to something noteworthy
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I don't know if I really like comparing March setups or March potential to like December, January, or even February. The wavelengths really start changing during the first half of the month and we start introducing the hemispheric shift between seasons...lots more chaos involved - which can go good or bad and sometimes the change in wavelengths can mean all the difference.
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I think in a way, this mid-week system helps set the stage for next weeks potential...maybe the time spacing is too far apart, however, I think this system will at least aid in the shaping of the pattern around the Arctic (AO).
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Basically the central Great Plains into the upper-Midwest is going to get their best winter storm/blizzard of the system now...if it can happen to them it can happen to us
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Tomorrow's water vapor imagery/satellite presentation and evolution is one that would go into textbooks for a basic meteorology course. That is going to be one dynamic system with widespread blizzard conditions...looks like the snow weenies in MSP get rewarded for their shitty winter. I bet there is a strip of like 12-15" of snow...that is a monster banding signal. Wisconsin going to get smoked Wednesday...travel will be about halted there
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a few flakes falling outside
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I can feel the cold seeping in. Time to make some hot chocolate after the end of the first period.
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Only one more full month until May That wind is ripping out there
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Could be an active March across the deep South for severe, especially moving towards mid-month with some signals for more expansive area of 60F dews and maybe even pushing upper 60's into the Gulf Coast. But if we can keep the theme for strong lows to develop downwind of the southern Rockies and get some assistance with NAO/AO, there is plenty of cold still nearby so if we can get any of those lows to pass more towards the mid-Atlantic we have a shot.
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Not too mention they had multiple tropical hits too in the Fall.
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Arkansas/Louisiana going to get crushed Tuesday. That is going to be one powerful squall line...gusts 70-90???
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Didn’t encounter any snow this morning. Was slightly worried it may be a bit icy but roads were fine. Had to rush to the emergency vet at 2:30 this morning
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It's a stigma that just won't go away. But I mean how many people out there are creating forecasts based off of 6z/18z runs? I would probably wager not many...well maybe in the Pacific/Alaskan/Hawaiian time zones. But for the most part, by the time the 6z/18z runs start coming out, most forecasts are probably already complete...maybe if there is potential for local storm impact there are some tweaks made. Maybe 6z/18z are used more for the nowcast/short-term
