weatherwiz

Yeah not sure what is playing into the HRRR but we have decent height falls tomorrow, increasing dynamics, steep lapse rates, and moderate instability. I know the main forcing/cold front is west...but more times than not our convection develops with the pre-frontal trough and not the actual cold front. But I would not be shocked to see the HRRR ramp up as we get closer. Same thing with the mid-western states...HRRR I think underplaying, especially Mississippi Valley

Storm mode will evolve to be linear quickly and flow aloft is predominately unidirectional, however, enough turning of the llvl winds that there is certainly a risk for an embedded tornado or two, particularly within the Hudson and Connecticut Valley where the backed flow will be enhanced some. Also looks like a bit of a theta-e ridge which will locally enhanced llvl CAPE and decent sfc vorticity. The line arrives coinciding with an increase of the LLJ as well and models want to hang around the steeper lapse rates. If we can get discrete cells ahead of the line (big if) there will be risk for multiple tornadoes.

I think the HRRR is underplaying aerial coverage tomorrow

We shall be seeing an enhanced risk tomorrow for at least western MA and western CT

It lightens up for a bit and then back to a moderate rain.

This rain is RELENTLESS. Been a moderate rain much of the day with some periods of light rain.

yup...miserable today. Not sure what time the rain started here but took the dog out around 6:30 AM and it was raining pretty good.

Later today I am going to make a special thread for what is upcoming...focusing on convection but there will be other goodies

At least on the NAM anyways...pretty big differences between GFS/NAM with the thermodynamic environment due to whether we can get that EML plume to move through. It's possible the environment across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region becomes convectively overturned but NAM has ~1500 J MUCAPE traversing the region overnight...not bad

Could see a few thunderstorms tomorrow night make there way in from PA/southern NY. Pretty good elevated CAPE around if storms can hold

Too bad no vort coming through

Those that didn't install are going to be in deep, deep trouble. Time is running out folks. Once this heat/humidity comes it isn't going away for quite some time. You've been warned

Nice

This is what we live for

Yeah that could be the case. Have to watch what 925/850 dews are like too. Despite the WNW flow there will be 70's dews well into the upper-Midwest and into Canada there...so while we naturally would mix down with a WNW flow it will be a question of how much can we mix them out...of course too any fronts or sfc troughs where we get sfc winds more WSW will help pool dews a bit

It's brutal...and if you get anything other than like one item, they usually make you go park and someone will bring the food out to you lol. Probably a means so they can "increase" their drive thru time. But the times are ridiculous at any drive thru place...but I think its just because those places are so understaffed.

You can't really call it fast food anymore. The wait time getting to place your order, then the wait time to place the order, the wait time to get to the window to pick up, and the wait time at the window for the food...its like 7-12+ minutes.

No, I may have to stop by McDonalds after.

THEY HAVE DOUBLE????

Unfortunately, unless something makes its way into Connecticut I will not be able to go around chasing Thursday, back to work. For my two weeks next year though, it's definitely going to involve going out west. Just have to pick the two week period. But if I am ever going to do that, well that has to happen very soon.

We better get 90’s and 100’s into September. This is fooking awful

He didn't say that...he just said what was exciting about the sounding you posted

Of course GFS with a solid severe setup for Thursday

Heat advisories within Alaska.

GWDLT