weatherwiz

yup...that's what I think anyways. And we may not even get that much...eastern areas maybe a tiny bit more. But that is a good shortwave coming through with sfc cold front, cold mid-level temps, steep lapse rates, and CAA.

“Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,” - This mindset is one of the downfalls of our society. All you have to do is tell someone you can do something for them faster and cheaper and its like dangling a carrot in front of the horse. This crap is food for the gullible. ”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”. so one of the most important aspects of forecasting, especially for short-term, which is input data...you're just going to totally reject? So what's the method, Miss Cleo's crystal ball?

This stuff is getting so out of hand

Hell, actually I think we see some showers/graupel move across the region tomorrow.

Not only that but is there really any good opportunity for that shortwave to dig as much as GFS/Euro have hinted it? I mean we've seen that same crap all winter long. Something going on where in this range they get dig happy with that northern stream. The way I see it now its going to end up just a weak wave with some showers and maybe snow showers for higher elevations.

Yeah tomorrow morning may be sunny or have a good deal of Sun, but I think we cloud up quick. That's a pretty potent shortwave moving through during the day with very cold mid-level temperatures. 50's for highs though which isn't terrible...but would feel better with Sun.

Would like to be able to compare that to other climo periods too...would be interesting. At some point using terms like "below average" are going to mean nothing really. At some point below average temperatures in winter for us will be above freezing lol.

I wonder if this inconsistency and violent swings is an indicator that we may be headed towards much warmer times. We've been in what has been a seasonably cold pattern through the winter with some warmer periods in March which were really driven by intense central Plains cyclones. But this may be a signal that the hemisphere is rapidly going through the seasonal transition and for us that would be warmer times. Of course there will be local influences which screw us (BDCF, any cutoff low potential).

Clouds cleared quick...blue sky here...temps jumping

Good thing the Red Sox open in Texas. Red Sox will be playing in 85F weather while avoiding wildfire smoke while Fenway is getting buried.

Watch something finally work out in late March or early April

Definitely...but I think that's what makes pizza so great. I at least love both styles though I think I may be in the minority in that. It seems like everyone has their one preference, either New Haven, New York, or Chicago.

New Haven pizza is the best for sure. Just behind it I would have to go with Chicago Deep Dish...but from Chicago. When I went to Chicago like 4 years ago I had some and my uncle could not believe how much I ate. The "Chicago Deep Dish" you can get around here is fake.

That's probably the best digging northern stream we've seen this season Too bad models have been piss poor with it

Like 26 days until the 384th hour of the GFS gets into May!

Did someone say pizza

I can’t wait until the trees start getting leaves

This is a great explanation

Very possible, I probably just broke my own rule and basing off outdated information. Or you know what...maybe I am just wrong...its Summer where the correlation is substantially weaker, and if I recall, even somewhat reversed.

NAO/AO correlation also starts to wane quickly moving through March and especially April. Still important enough to influence backdoor potential and maybe cut-off potential but outside of that its overall influence on the NHEM pattern will wane.

Also looks like we may start drying out aloft pretty quickly

I think we'll see many probably end as some snow but I don't know if anyone will really accumulate. One thing to watch too is for the wave to become a bit less impressive. one of the drivers in a stronger wave was stronger temperature gradient but if the gradient is weakening this could have a negative impact on wave development. There are other factors at play and involved for wave development though

Yes, agreed. This is a better take and analysis

Seems like there has been a trend towards CAA occurring more slowly. Adirondacks still look a tad interesting but the CAA push seems to be slowing, even within the OV

The snow maps look cute and all but when you actually start looking at everything...they're even more of a giant LOLz than they usually are. They are garbage in winter but they are even more garbage this time of year