weatherwiz

The GFS could be ran on Nov 29 with all the input variables of the 27th and still not get how the 27th unfolded correct

Voted for 6th. Have a groomers appointment for the dog at 11:00 AM but that won't affect being able to go. I'm assuming we'd be meeting up somewhere between 1:00-2:00?

Yes, although now its a bit more difficult since last summer our dog had a severe spinal stroke which has left very little mobility/control of his back legs so his playing days are over. But the hope from the neurologist was over time he would get back to 100% but it never happened. We did a third and final MRI back at the end of the summer and it revealed the part of his spine that had the stroke (it was his second one) is slowly being replaced by fluid, so we went the wheel chair route and he loves it...can go on walks again! But being able to go on walks again is phenomenal.

Snow makes the early sunsets much more tolerable for sure. There is nothing like it being dark out at 4:30 with heavy snow falling and just the quietness outside with nobody driving. One thing that doesn't bother me either is the stars. Last night I was outside with the dog at like 6:15 and the sky was perfectly clear with plenty of stars overhead and the stars were bright and vibrant. I also did get a little sad though thinking back to the summer when it was 6:15 and just sitting outside drinking a beer. I think the key though with early sunsets and the seasonal depression stuff is just trying to stay busy...which is hard when you're cooped up inside because there isn't much to do outside. Early sunsets never really used to bother me until maybe the last 4-5 years and I've thought why that is...figured maybe just getting older but then it dawned on me. I used to be very active doing stuff...had season tickets to the Wolf Pack and would go to road games that they would play locally sometimes there could be like 3 games a week. Plus school kept me busy...then I finished school, and it was just work and being lazy. But being back in school + work...don't have time to notice it being dark

I feel like Detroit is just in a shit area for snow. Too far removed from Lake Michigan to get the good LES and generally too far northwest from low pressures that strengthen within the OV and moving out way. And with cutters...they are probably either just too far west for the goods or on the extreme western cutters for of a mix. Its probably clippers mostly for them?

even mesos are a mess for us, yes but I am looking at more of the region as a whole (including just to our south. I would have to think any north guidance with the heavier axis is wrong but we do get some increasing diffluence aloft late with PVA so we may see showers blossom (just not heavy rain...maybe coast gets heavier rain).

What an absolutely colossal joke guidance is with tomorrow night. Who event wants to forecast precipitation events 4-5 days out? It's been absolutely terrible. I can only wonder how many storms we'll see on guidance 4-5 days out and the snow maps of 8...10...12+ inches start flying out only for significant reductions inside of 48 hours. Or who knows...maybe we'll get some in the other direction where it looks like crap and then we're forecasting 6-10" all of a sudden

There was alot of ice in my freezer this morning too, more than usual. that's because I turned on the ice maker

Who uses an umbrella when its windy?

6th (I think) or 20th work for me. Let's make this happen

Can't even get good agreement on models on how tomorrow/tomorrow night evolve

The sky is so clear. Couldn’t get this for the big aurora show???

If we keep pushing back I can have fun with the running joke... pattern is changing by December 1...no December 10...christmas...New Years, definitely mid January, Feb will be big...hello spring! This is a great visual for context, thanks! MJO could be a factor too...just looked at euro/gfs forecasts. Both have a robust wave propagating into 6/7. Obviously MJO forecasting is extremely iffy at this range, but when you look at the GFS/euro evolution around/shortly after Thanksgiving...its a pretty damn close match to what you would expect for a transition from 6 to 7. So if the MJO signal ends up being overplayed...you may see significant changes to guidance for this period.

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December?

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly

We definitely want to watch the progression of the progression of the stratosphere too. The good news is, we already have a warming event ongoing and across the Canadian Arctic If you were to follow this progression on Dr. Lawrence's site, its a longer duration event too with the peak occurring somewhere in the 300 hr time frame This is important (when the peak occurs) because this would likely result in a PV split, which begins to occur towards the end of the run Getting a PV split will be critical because the main PV looks like it could end up over Europe, but if it splits, then we could get PV displacement onto our side of the hemisphere.

Let's really, really hope the PAC plays out and evolves like that. But even if it doesn't...if it can at least evolve to a degree where we can continue to further develop that later in the month...that would be a big change. I also wouldn't mind maintaining a stronger SE ridge...coastal peeps may not want that and of course that could be playing Russian Roulette but that would at least help with an active storm track with ejecting shortwaves from the southwest...then we just hope for a perfect trough axis to our west.

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging).

Ahhh good thought, I do still have that in there. I also need to remember to shut off the valve to the outside water faucet.

Had heavy frost on the car this morning. Apparently I guess my windshield washer fluid was empty and my scrapper broke, so I had to waste 15-20 minutes waiting for window to defrost so I could drive

2003 was so much fun. That was my freshman year of high school and during lunch I'd be outside playing frisbee in the snow

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is.

catching up on late afternoon. What is the definition people are using when it comes to wire-to-wire. I thought it was referring to getting slammed in back-to-back winters, but is that not the case?

The HRRR I think is out to lunch. I was curious to see what the soundings looked like in the vicinity of the precip on the HRRR...did see some moistening of the profile but there is a quite a bit of dry air to overcome and being on the northern fringes of the precip shield...don't think that's going to do it. But maybe portions of Fairfield county are clipped with some better lvl moisture