weatherwiz

This is definitely concerning in terms of a widespread ice storm within the mid-South, however, with that the north trends that have been ongoing are very noteworthy and should not be dismissed. I would not be surprised if the sfc low actually developed a bit faster and farther west than what the GFS had (6z run). It might be difficult for interior but coastal New England could be in play for some significant snows

I need around 84-85” to hit 100” so really need these next few weeks to step it up

yup...iPhone weather app. He just told me.

I'll ask him. He lives near Boston so I'm guessing its for Boston area but for Sunday, January 25 it says 15-18" for total snowfall for the day

I had a friend send me a screen shot of this earlier saying, "wtf"

Leaning in the direction of suppression for here but holy hell is this going to be extremely high impact across the mid South and probably even to the Gulf Coast again. If I was in say Houston I would be very concerned again for a significant ice storm...seeing the GFS as cold as it is with that boundary nearby...raises big concerns. GFS has often in the past been one of the last to catch up to the extent of llvl cold down there with these Arctic fronts

my guess would be distinct amounts from both days since these were separate systems

I sure did...I was reading it while eating breakfast and making coffee lol.

I just want to de-clothe and lay in the middle of the yard

Everything is just caked and snow and has been since about late Saturday morning. Almost to the point where another probably 2-3 inches of this and we'd be seeing some limbs break off and probably power outages. I can't remember the last time it was really this photogenic outside...in fact, its like pictures don't even do the true justice. This is probably how it looks like in parts of Alaska all winter long.

My bad totally misunderstood. I was actually using cobb11 in that screen shot You're right...its not the max temp you can adjust, its the fixed ratio.

Can’t ask for a more wintry look then this

About 2.5” here from evening/overnight. 6.5” between the 2 days

Solid 700-500mb fronto setting up there

This was an absolutely confidence boost in taking AI more seriously in the medium range. Now, we can't assume that AI is just going to nail the medium range but the value this could provide is huge. Inside of 48 hours we just continue relying on the mesos and.

We'll see what happens. This is one of the more nail biting nowcast situations in a while. Hopefully that area of 700 fronto along Long Island is some indication of where we'll get better banding developing later and hints at stuff blossoming farther north and west. 850mb fronto is getting there so we should at least continue seeing precip blossom across the region later on

Yeah any warning amounts would probably be too isolated or localized to really justify a warning.

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible.

can see cloud tops cooling down near the Delmarva

12z NAM looks solid for BOS this evening

If referring to bufkit, both are separate. If you’re using cobb11 it’s deriving the snow ratios from 5 or 6 products. If you choose maxT in profile you can adjust the max temp to compute different ratios

Coating down so far

Noticed the same thing driving home earlier

Just going through some bufkit soundings but here is New Haven, CT 1. You can see the deep DGZ but also look at the time period around that AM stuff...ratios up around 20:1 with some strong lift then again during the evening. If this morning band verifies snow rates could approach 1-1.5" per hour

Anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM bufkit.