weatherwiz

Yeah you can see the dry slot on guidance punch right into SNE after that quick WAA burst potential. I think there is room to dig that vort a bit more given the jet streak hasn't yet rounded the base of the trough as it is crossing NNE but that flow is pretty fast and the digging may happen too late for us. I'd watch for some advisory snows in southwest Maine into parts of New Hampshire. There also looks to be a bit of an inverted trough signal.

I think the QPF is being underdone. Dynamics are pretty impressive and RH fields look good (though I didn't look at any soundings so maybe they are showing some dry layers). But that is a potent H5 jet streak moving in, looks like the nose of it coincides with the best lift/forcing too. I would anticipate precip could break out across much of the region.

Don't even respond to them. The value and knowledge you bring is immense. It's a refresher to be able to divulge deep into the meteorology and not just scroll past 1000 snow maps 300 hours out. When we're discussing patterns and potential nobody is guaranteeing anything will happen, if people are taking it that way that is their issue. It's meteorology 101 that when you're looking medium range and beyond to gauge the pattern and use knowledge of how those patterns have performed historically. But they know this...they just like to troll.

I would not be surprised to see mesos continue to beef up a bit more throughout the day. I haven't look in tremendous detail yet to see if this is something which will be a larger, more uniform precipitation shield or something that is more along the line of scattered-to-numerous squalls. I think the HRRR may have a solid idea of a more uniform precip shield further north, closer to the vort with squalls from PA through SNE.

Yeah I stepped outside like 30 minutes ago to grab a package...it certainly felt like winter. While I don't have much of a snow pack here I am loving today. Despite the cold/wind the sun makes it much better.

Tomorrow night could certainly overperform I think. NAM has the s/w amplifying as it moves across the region. Some pretty steep lapse rates involved too. Could be some hefty snow squalls. Maybe even some thunder/lightning across Pennsylvania with squalls which could propagate across southern New England. I could see some spots picking up 1-2''.

I just uninstalled my bedroom A/C the other day

Working on a little (well shouldn't say little it will be a bit long) blog post doing a bit of a recap. Won't finish tonight because the Bruins are on in 30 min. Probably won't be able to finish tomorrow because doing Valentine's Day dinner after work. Maybe I can finish Thursday after work before the Bruins game.

that report was from just before 7 AM. They had to get around 6'' or so I'd guess based on surrounding reports.

I'm in Springfield...the northeastern side of Springfield (about 10 min from downtown).

About 3.5'' final here

WOW!!!!

I was just about to go out and measure but that is what about I was eyeballing.

Exactly. This is why I get so bent out of shape with the snow maps. They're just leading to lazy forecasting. Ultimately, forecasting is a science which requires a great deal of time and effort. Now, I get in today's day and age where everyone is so busy and has so many responsibilities that it's difficult to put that effort in, but we're only hurting ourselves that way. Fundamentals are important. Take sports for example, you can have the most talent team, best players, but if you can't execute the fundamentals, you aren't winning in the end. When forecasting, the fundamentals should be applied first and always. If one is going to look at snow maps or QPF and see there is a cut-down, the questions needs to be asked as to why that is and whether it makes sense. When looking back at how all guidance was handling the mid-levels, the evolution of the mid-levels, jet enhancement, the QPF cuts should not have made sense. I guess though hindsight is 20-20...its always easier said than done in the end, but you can't ignore the fundamentals and forget why fundamentals are important.

This storm deserves one helluva case study. Ultimately though, this storm is a prime clear-cut example of why snow maps are garbage but why analyzing "trends" in the snow maps is pure garbage. When it comes to modeled QPF, I feel like models have improved on this significantly over the past 10-15 years but this was probably a case too where analyzing QPF trends was probably not a great idea. Despite what the Euro was doing, the mid-level presentation argued for a crushing along and south/east of I84. I think dendrite mentioned it earlier, but models can often struggle with QPF under the banding signal. I honestly think all the clues were still there for a crushing. Even with the lower QPF, forecast soundings were still showing great lift into the DGZ. Saturation was not an issue so naturally lift into the DGZ was going to produce snow. I believe we are also in the entrance region of the ULJ.

I guess the 15-18'' I mentioned you could get may work out after all

Must be sucking subsidence here or something. crappy snowgrowth and tiny flakes.

Just measured 2''...may even be a bit more

Very good snowgrowth here. Coming down decently too. Might go our for a measurement at 9

Well said, it is situations like this which really drive me to love the weather event more and want to learn. As mentally exhausting as it can be sometimes, the only way to further understand and learn is to understand these situations. I think these situation also tell us how difficult communication can be to the public, especially communicating uncertainty.

I feel like an idiot Screamed bust on fb for my snowfall forecast for Connecticut and some friends are sending me pics, "what bust" What a 24 hours. I may need a 40 for the Bruins game tonight. I'm hoping I can at least pull off 3'' here.

Maybe 1/2'' here in Springfield or so. Coming down nicely. Looking at radar this AM I am just stunned. These past 24 hours have me speechless.

finally got around to making an updated forecast

The gun shell casings scattered around Bridgeport probably screw up the plows.

That sounds about right. Yup...those were good times. My mom used to listen to the radio in the morning so I would lay in bed and listen to the them go down the list. It used to piss me off so much because Hartford used to close constantly and West Hartford wouldn't. Granted though...back then West Hartford did a helluva job cleaning roads. Hartford sucked. You would tell what streets separated Hartford from West Hartford because you would go from perfectly clear road to can't see pavement in the span of 5 feet