weatherwiz

One thing to keep in mind when dealing with these setups which can favor orographic development is the scale of the convection. You need very high resolution models to truly resolve this degree of convection. This is why if you were looking at the GFS (even the 12km or 32km NAM) they showed also little, if any QPF. The HRRR did better at picking up as did the 3km NAM but sometimes with this stuff its just a matter of not having models with high enough resolution to really resolve the potential. I also think some of the activity ended up a bit more widespread just due to extra upward motion from ongoing thunderstorms.

We’re definitely going to get some hot days upcoming but this week is a slap in the face reminder that change is a comin

Hopefully the Red Sox go deep into October...would eliminate having to deal with one month of hockey. But not that I have alot (or any) expertise in this, but I'm shocked CSU maintained their above average hurricane forecast with today's update. It's slightly down from April but maintained from the June update. They must be going for a big peak/back half.

Right I'm not so sure though we could ever muster up that much MLCAPE here. I mean that EML progged is about as stout as an EML you'll see really (700-500 lapse rates ~ 8.5-9 C/KM!!!!, and will be atop dews well into the 70's. I think we'll eventually see a moderate risk there. Anyways, when we get EMLs they tend to be on the weakening side and are generally ~7-7.5 C/KM. But I mean how common it has become to push 70+ dews in here (and earlier in the season now) its feasible we could get a setup with MLCAPE maybe pushing 4000-4500. If we ever saw something larger with a legit setup...we may legit blow down like 30% of the trees in the region

If not for that stupid low offshore we probably could have gotten into some EML action this weekend and perhaps some MCS activity. that offshore kind of screws up the flow so hard to tell if we would have gotten something in here

oof check out how clueless the NAMs were on that midwest MCS lol. 6z run had his thing in Minnesota

Will be interesting to see if we get showers overspreading the region tonight. The 3km has been pretty consistent with this. It also I think kind of overdoes light precip but it (along with the HRRR) have that slug of precip. off NJ

Only 9 more months!

It just dawned on me, those Mountain Dew commercials when they say everyone enjoys the dew, they’re not talking about the soda, they’re talking about high dews

Constant comping. This is what happens when you have low dews. I’ve noticed a lot of aggression…lots of anger, both here and in the world. Parents aggressively pushing strollers, kids screaming and yelling, dogs barking, birds violently poooping on cars. Low dews just makes everyone in a terrible mood.

I could see that happening. I mean in all seriousness, we are going to start and see hemispheric changes occurring very soon (even this month) and we're really a strong disruption to the hemispheric flow away from truly (as Steve likes to say) breaking the back. This probably happens this month...that doesn't mean we aren't going to see any anomalously warm periods and high humidity, but we will get stronger cold fronts which will usher in those early fall like airmasses and the duration of the cooler airmasses behind these fronts will grow longer each time (until we erode summer for good). I am hoping to explore some seasonal thoughts in the next month/two but I begin grad school classes in 2.5 weeks so probably not going to have much time to divulge.

I feel like this is going to be a special fall...warmth and humidity well through October. Will be able to watch football and hockey outside in shorts. With being to wear shorts with a hockey/football jersey it will look like you're not wearing pants.

I don't think Kevin ever said all the rain was going south of Connecticut, I believe he said the heaviest rain/flooding potential would be south.

If he was working in the energy sector he would have made alot of folks happy

Maybe this go around we'll have some more solid convective chances...for as hot and humid as it will become we also look to introduce some stronger cold fronts. Maybe we can sling an EML this way too

I think the models have actually handled this pretty well so far.

turned into a hot chocolate day

things will fill in across Connecticut so most should get a decent little drink but the flooding stuff will be south

that cell is spitting CGs in the inflow notch haha. starting to looks like a Plains supercell

there's the warning

that actually may be a few scans away from a TOR

interesting looking cell headed towards EWR

I'd watch the potential for a tornado or two across the Connecticut shoreline and especially Long Island.

Seems like the risk for any significant flooding is on the low side. It's looking like everything is going to be more progressive but where stuff trains you could develop some issues. But overall the rates shouldn't be anything too out of this world.

may see a few pop up showers/thunder across the high terrain tomorrow