weatherwiz

Wow! Well the streak ends I guess

yeah January 2021 certainly did and was aided by the extreme blocking across Greenland.

Yeah...we did get a great pattern late February and March and established prime troughing for us

I think it is extremely difficult right now to have an idea of what influences La Nina will have. There has been a markedly big shift in the hemispheric regime during La Nina events over the past few decades. With La Nina you always at least had some degree of troughing in North America, whether that be into Canada that would extend into the northern latitudes of the U.S. or into the PAC NW...but this signal has been almost absent mins 2010-2011 and 2021-2022 basically since the 80's.

I've tended to shy away from ONI alone and incorporate for SOI/MEI/RONI/ENS-ONI but with that I am a bit uncertain as to how much we really develop into La Nina but even with a Nina, I am unsure how "Nina like" the atmosphere will truly be. Thanks for linking that paper, gave a quick breeze through but need to read it in full later. I certainly could see periods where MJO activity is favorable or more favorable for us, but the question is, how favorable? If/when we get MJO activity into the favorable phases, how strong will the MJO signal be and how much weight will it have? But I really want to see how the hemisphere evolves through the remainder of this month and first half of November.

Well like I said, I won't have time to do in-depth digging or analysis, but regardless, 90% of "seasonal" outlooks always find some way to make it cold/snow in the East. Anyways, regardless of whether we end up in La Nina (by ONI definition) or neutral negative, much of the Pacific remains a heat pump. Now, I know things may change some in this department as we move towards the northern hemisphere winter solstice but the IPWP and WPWP remain expansive, which has been a theme for the last several years. In the case of the IPWP, when combined with the -PDO regime, is going to yield a stronger gradient across the North Pacific as we move deeper through the cooler season (lower pressure over the IPWP and higher pressure in the north Pacific) which will contribute to a very fast jet stream yielding zonal flow into the U.S. I'm fearful this is a recipe for strong MJO activity when convection enters phases 5-7 and we all know what that means. The WPHP is going to continue the theme of intense southern ridging and this could be even amped a bit by a weak La Nina or negative neutral ENSO and will aid in faster jet stream winds across the country. But of course you have wildcards such as stratosphere, QBO, etc. But when the PAC is a dominant player in this regard...it doesn't usually bode well for us.

Won't be able to put anything of great depth or detail together for the winter, but my thinking right now is that it is going to be a above average temperature regime for much of the country and could be on the drier side, except maybe the West and we'll see an overall theme of de-amplifying systems trucking across the country with another raging jet the culprit.

We're barely going to be in a La Nina, if we even officially get there. ENSO will probably have little influence on the overall regime.

I like the 6 panel viewings. I hope they bring back NARR.

Wow, I had no clue EWALL made major upgrades! https://mapwall.met.psu.edu/ewall/

We are not getting any hurricanes to sniff this latitude

I was just thinking, is it me or does it seem like the hemisphere as a whole, particularly Arctic latitudes, is very slow to begin the seasonal transition...or maybe its just a bit too early? This next part is better suited for the ENSO thread, but I don't feel good about our prospects for the winter. I guess maybe I'll go throw those thoughts in there shortly.

Sunday has a very warm look for the interior...could def see some 85-86F in the typical hot spots. Looks quite warm for the foreseeable future too as a whole (outside of the brief, cool shot) with some big daily departures.

Yup...that's a nice shot of colder air modeled.

The most "fun" and "challenging" part of this weeks forecast is tomorrow's sky cover

Felt like September absolutely flew by. Outside of the severe we had early in the month, what a boring month. But things changing quickly, leaves turning and starting to drop like flies.

No, it wasn't that. It was yellow (or like a golden brown) with the light orange body or brownish orange. But it was crawling at me...I had no choice.

The only light I keep on is just outside the back door but its not particularly bright and inside a cove (not sure what its technically called but its an overhang which connects the house with the garage.

hmmm could be those. what kind is the "common yellow house spider"?

Yeah I won't bother them if they're outside, but inside that is a different problem . But yeah the number I've seen outside, especially larger spiders is very noticeable. Actually, I've grown to not care as much if they are inside anymore but its the crawling that creeps me out. I probably should have gotten this addressed when I was a kid...no clue where it started or what sparked it but this fear of spiders is an awful thing...if I see one near me it elicits this intense response in my body. I hate it.

Is that stuff safe for dogs/cats?

I've also noticed an alarming uptick in wolf spiders outside. I hope those suckers don't manage to sneak inside houses. But I think one may have. A few weeks ago when I was lying in bed watching videos on my phone, a black spider raced out from under the covers across the bed. I jumped out of bed and killed it quickly so I didn't have a chance to see what kind of spider it was. It may have just been a jumping spider. When I drained the pool last week, the number of spiders (and some big ones) that crawled onto the pool to get away from the water was very disturbing.

I guess its spider season. My girlfriend said she killed a big yellow one that was crawling on a door yesterday, then one last night that dropped from the ceiling, and I just had one run across my desk ughhhhhhh. There must be a nest and I'm still convinced there is a nest in my car since i had 3 spiders crawl on me while driving in the span of 10 days. Frustrating

1" of rain and EF1 TOR's

TDS northeast of Rockland