weatherwiz

I can’t believe the rainfall totals being spit out by guidance. A widespread 8-12”. Given how much convection will be involved I bet there will be some locations that pull of 20”.

Wow PDS Flood Watch for parts of KY/TN/AR/MS. I don't ever recall seeing a PDS Flood Watch...?

Saturday is going to struggle to warm sector. Don't think anyone in New England warm sectors. Sunday most should warm sector but it may take some a while.

A little off but not bad

Yeah this is looking ugly within western Kentucky. I would not be surprised if there were spots that saw 15-20" of rain.

As long as it was in an open field with nobody's homes/businesses in the path would be good with that!

ehhh not really...can enjoy weather from afar

I don't think the HRRR is too far off with probably a wintry mix moving across the region during the evening. That's a heck of a surge of WAA. Have to see how quickly the llvl cold scoots out.

Actually there might be a few small areas of enhanced tornado potential tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if one of two things happen 1) The geographical area of the 10% hatched TOR is reduced and confined to a smaller area. 2) the area remains the same but 15% hatched is added in these areas. This is much more fun to track versus 30's/40's, clouds and drizzle.

At least we shouldn't have issues warm sectoring for Thursday (well except up north)

It's been pretty ugly there. This week could end up ugly too...this could be a bigger story than the severe weather potential really. but I guess when you're pooling 60's dews and rich theta-e air into fronts which seem to stall there for multiple days that sets up a terrible recipe. Was it last there they had a stationary front there for like 3-4 days?

I wonder how many tornadoes there will be tomorrow. Seems like its predominately linear mode outside of initial development. I also feel like it may not pan out to be anything over the top wild.

One month to go!!!! Less than a month actually

Tomorrow looks like toaster bath weather. MAV/MET for BOS is 30's. NBM is a little more kind

Looked out the window at the right time and saw a nice CG

Probably small hail falling between New Fairfield and Brookfield

nahh just a pre-cursor

We going out like a lion

Turned into a great late afternoon. Now time for some thunder later

I couldn't agree more with this post. I exhaust myself big time with composites and I need to move away from that because otherwise I am never going to get to the level I want just because I don't have the time to really do so. I only really do that to develop a fundamental background in understanding but it is extremely, extremely time consuming. But I think over the years I've developed enough knowledge/understanding that I don't need to do this anymore but If I knew how to program/code this could be done in a way more productive manner. But I try too much to break things down so much and try to get as close to a linear correlation as possible which is stupid because when it comes down to it, there really is no or are no linear correlations. And this is what makes the science so difficult. As humans, we are equip to understand/handle linear correlations pretty easily, but getting outside of linear correlations and we struggle...its a skill that can be taught but the path is difficult.

I find the ENS-ONI intriguing, though I think its more designed to highlight ENSO events pre-1950. But it wasn't until I came across the ENS-ONI that I realized there are a ton of different methods and metrics to define ENSO events. Maybe this is good...maybe this is bad but I think this helps us to "think about the box". I debate though how much I want to involve ENSO events pre-1950. I don't think that data should be discounted, however, when creating composites and assessing it must be understood this data is all re-constructed and there are caveats. While it does seem like there has been a huge change in how ENSO events behave lately its very difficult to make this assertion because data coverage/collection is worlds better now...but even with this there could be inconsistencies, especially with satellite data/measurements.

Great thread, hoping to get more involved with the seasonal forecasting this year. I did last year but 2025 was pretty wild. Part of the problem is I get too much into my head. Anyways, I've gone back to the drawing board when it comes to creating ENSO composites. I've read made my lists of EL Nino, La Nina, and ENSO neutral using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI, however, I am not sure I want to go ahead and create a list breaking down by strength. Through the journeys and research and studies, there is a whole world of accepted definitions when it comes to ENSO and classifications beyond the typical ONI and SSTA thresholds we're all familiar with. When digging into strength classification I would like to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the classifications.

Even a quick look at some mesoanalysis products such as sfc obs/theta-e you can easily see the sfc warm front is well south of there. At least the kink in the warm front is correct

Hoping to see a strong wind gust this evening