weatherwiz

Based off this morning, I am inclined to believe the track here on out will be towards the eastern edge of the cone. It took longer than I expected (mainly because the storm slowed to a crawl) but we're finally seeing the rapid shift north and northeast.

Next week will be a mid-to-late beautiful sky (assuming no wildfire smoke). Looks like we swing some cold pools through. So we could have a scenario of blue sky to begin the day with crisp and bubbly TCUs developing by mid-to-late morning. Moisture is limited but probably see isolated showers/thunder (particularly high terrain).

I also wonder if environment in the wake of Erin will be a bit too hostile for the follow up wave? Or at the very least wind shear may be unfavorable...GFS doesn't look great in this department.

Yeah we'll have to see if Erin either tries to re-strengthen some as it moves north or at least re-develops a better structure. But these two factors, particularly the later could have big impacts on what transpires across the outer banks of NC and even Nantucket. In addition to the shear and dry air you have to wonder if just sitting over the same area for so long is playing a factor too. It's even difficult to pinpoint the centers exact movement too. Almost looks like it could be more of a NNW heading but the center is also kind of jumping around a bit.

I see they upgraded to TS warnings for Cape Hatteras but the structure of Erin is getting destroyed and everything is essentially into the eastern quadrant of the storm. I know the wind field will expand and reconfigure as Erin grows but its entirely possible they barely get to TS force winds even to Cape Hatteras.

Yeah a nice swath from within NJ across Long Island. Maybe even potential for a brief tornado across southern NJ and some waterspouts off the coast.

I can see what he means though for down into NJ (especially southern NJ). It will be more unstable down that way and better chance for convection. There certainly could be some localized significant flash flooding in those parts tomorrow, especially if any cells train over a specific area. For us though I think flooding potential is very low.

I am back and forth on potential for any flash flooding. I am not sure if we will really see heavy enough rainfall rates. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way of convective rainfall. Thinking mostly just a steady enough rainfall to where drainage systems aren't being overfilled and the ground should absorb.

Erin taking a beating today

Crazy we're only a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season and about a month away from pre-season hockey. Where did my summer go

The clouds are crying over the lack of dews

Outside with shorts and short sleeved shirt…not too bad actually. The coolness isn’t bothering like I thought it would. But I do miss 95/73

I think the NAM has validity. Drawing some moisture northwards from Erin and you have alright dynamics and a warm front approaching aloft. Lift isn't too bad. There could be a swath of a nice steady rain...nothing too crazy, perfect for the ground actually to soak it in.

Blue sky and sun wooohoo

may have to watch this follow up wave (like @WxWatcher007 mentioned). Its a better pattern then what we have now.

should be that here soon

might have to switch to jeans, this blows. cool and cloudy gross

In terms of Erin and how it intensified, the developing storm, processes, etc. absolutely should be discussed and talked about. What Erin did was special and it’s extremely important these processes continue being studied. But this never had a chance of making landfall. When it comes to landfalling tropical systems, particularly in the Northeast, there is a very clear and distinct weather pattern that needs to be in place. We had the exact opposite of that weather pattern. When you don’t have a prime pattern in place, these storms will re-curve. All these people out there on social media or whatever playing the “but if” game…weather doesn’t work on ifs. There are basic principles and concepts. “If the trough does this…if the high does this…if this if that, the models can change”…that’s not how this science works. Granted, it isn’t an exact science but there are still basic principles and concepts which provide the guidelines and basis. If there were going to be changes to any features or structures the pattern…those signals would exist within modeling or teleconnections and those signals were never, ever present. One run of an OP doesn’t constitute these as being present either. If anything, there was a better shot at the storm remaining on a west heading towards Florida, that would have been probable if Erin was within an environment not favorable for strengthening or organization, otherwise Erin was always going to gain latitude. there was always going to be some range as to exactly how far west Erin would get either prior to re-curving or while re-curving and it was never going to be enough to be a “close call” and that’s because there was never a pattern or feature which would have shunted it even further west. A bunch of people playing the “if game” doesn’t change what the reality was, it doesn’t change what the meteorology and physics dictated would happen.

Can’t break what we don’t get

Re-loading for Septdewber

All this hoopla around about tracking more west and south of guidance and blah blah blah and Erin is going to make the north track and re-curve within what was expected several days ago. Physics and science FTW

Agreed

It will start a more northerly headed very soon, once it starts to do so we’ll see it happen very quickly.

And we have a cat 5

This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength