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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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This is a great point, but this also raises conflict. If you're discussing this stuff taking a scientific approach, you can't have a million definitions and criteria otherwise there is just mass confusion. I suppose though having a ton of different definitions is fine, but the criteria needs to be established and there also needs to be sound reasoning.
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True...to some extent the ocean can certainly give the Midwest a run with the winds. I would love to experience a true Midwest blizzard though, I would have to think its something that would be more epic than what we ever see here. I mean how often do we see portions of 84/91/95 close due to a winter storm? Portions of I80, I90, I94, I29 will close multiple times per winter and sometimes for multiple days. Conditions just get too dangerous to even have plows going out.
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Well even if this one doesn't work out, at least through much of the remainder of the month both the northern and southern streams look active. I think the northern stream being active in we can get good storms from northern stream alone. I like the southern stream being active, and coincident with the northern stream, in that it offers potential for significant cyclogenesis off the EC. chances will not be limited.
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What really sucks about this too is, if these discrepancies remain over the next few days there isn't a heck of a lot we can do. It's not like the error is resulting from sampling or lack of sampling. It looks like its just a result of how quickly the southern stream reaches maturity and exactly how strong the jet streak gets as it rounds the base of the trough and when this starts to occur. There are so many factors which can play into this that we may not know for sure until real-time Monday morning.
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I agree with this, I think its either a dumping for NNE or we see a southern track with light snows/accumulations into the region. People need to be really careful with this one and focus on the confluence and forget the model snow maps (and I'm serious with this one). This reminds me a bit of a setup in 2018 I think it was (not saying the setup is similar) where QPF/snow maps were destroying us, even a day or two out, and confluence won. I remember some forecasts for southern CT were like 10-18'' (maybe even more) and we got like 2-3'' in Danbury when I was at school. I have a feeling no one model is truly going to win this one. There has already been so much spread from run-to-run and model-to-model. While this isn't anything new for this stage of the game, I think it's something we continue to see until we're within inside 2 days. I am not sure how the NAM will handle this, but I would suspect it will be the worst of them all (I guess that isn't saying much though).
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Phasing events should always be treated in their own category. Phasing is really all about timing. Even if you have spot on consistency for multiple cycles and for multiple days, as you get closer something could muck up the timing. Until the energy within the two streams is being sampled well and models are initializing with consistency and there is a solid understanding of the downstream pattern, these can be a pain. We've seen some storms in the past where it looked like timing wasn't going to work out and then around D3...boom.
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What ends up helping everyone out too is how the entire system closes off as it is passing just to our east. Would see some a good deal of dynamic cooling in that scenario and very hefty CCB which would more than likely traverse the entire region. Essentially, if this solution were to verify I don't think I'd complain.
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Would love the phasing to take place later obviously but it's great to finally see something involving a text book phase between the northern stream and southern stream. Not sure what room we have to get a later phasing, but certainly still far enough out to where that is possible, although I imagine we would want to start seeing that signal in the next day or two.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Saturday should be quite warm. Probably see a lot of upper 50's away from the water unless something drastic happens. I wouldn't rule out some places hitting 60-61. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Perhaps its not a coincidence winters went downhill since I gave up both -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Gotcha...thanks! I had that reversed. And you can see the potential that lies with the upcoming look. Obviously whether or not we can get all the moving pieces to time together is another story, but this is why you focus on pattern first then divulge into details once you get within range. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I love the consistency regarding the blocking; both in terms of evolution and placement. I'd be hard pressed to believe there will not be multiple threats over the course of a few weeks. I know there has been a debate as how long this look holds, but I can see it hanging on the longer side. I don't mind the weakening block look b/c as long as the hemispheric configuration remains undisturbed, I could see the block regaining some strength and this would offer another period of potential...maybe even greater potential (for a larger event). -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
what I mean is it is getting tossed around and used too much. An OP run 12 days out showing a storm tracking well south doesn't necessarily mean or equate to suppression.