weatherwiz

Bring it back with a large disclaimer in red....if politics are mentioned or if anyone uses political views/differences as a means for whatever they're trying to do or to attack someone...suspend/ban them.

I'm dreaming of a nice big D Derecho that is. Tree toppling, forest destroying, roof tossing derecho!!!!!

OH HELLO THERE YOU SEXY HEIGHTS

You have got to be fooking kidding me. I’m not chasing storms on a highway either. This is absolutely fooked.

depends on the season

The SPC should just change the issuance time of the day 2 outlook. It's legit never out by 1730z. May as well change it to 1800z.

I could see this becoming tropical very quickly as it emerges off the coast. I doubt it maintains its tropical characteristics though this far north. Waters are just too cool and I think it's going to take it's time moving north. But we would still want to watch for how this evolves off to our south...perhaps we can get a PRE involved.

well that's good.

pretty decent LLJ...probably decent pressure gradient too so I'm sure it would be pretty gusty. Not sure of tide situation (in terms of times of high/low tide) but I would wager coastal flooding could be a concern.

Friday continues to look rather interesting. Really won't have an idea until mid-week when the system gets off the land but should something develop (depending on exactly where) there isn't a whole lot to really knock this out to sea. If anything, I wonder if that subtle (which is just beginning to amplify) shortwave trough is just enough to even tug it back a bit. Anyways, with that ulvl jet strengthening off to our west we could have a decent amount of divergence aloft so there is window for heavy rains.

Kinda watching SW CT. Looks like that part of the state will reside on a higher axis of CAPE. Shear isn't overly strong but there is enough to warrant the potential for a severe thunderstorm with large hail and/or damaging winds. The overall greatest threat is just southwest of the region. Can't even rule out into central CT as well. Some boundaries out there to watch. Could be just enough shear to yield broad supercell structures too.

Had an awesome time at Hampton Beach on Thursday. Was so happy Thursday's weather there was perfect b/c it was my girlfriends birthday. We both actually got burned pretty good despite using sunscreen (though I think the fault was using SPF 15). Hell, she even got me to go into the water and I boogie boarded for the first time! Waves were pretty nice. It sucked the weather there sucked Friday...was quite chilly. Saturday was a tad better but still cool.

Potential will be there

GFS brings PWATS to like 2.50''+ to the CAPE Friday.

Yikes...the second half of July could be pretty ugly if that ridge establishes as advertised by both the Euro and GFS across the south. At least the "drought" concern will be no more...plenty of convective chances and probably days with plenty of clouds by late morning with numerous showers. But that's some ridge in the south...597dm on the Euro...probably even higher too.

whoops...I had meant to post all that in the banter thread.

but that was serious stuff. nothing that big should ever be inside getting closer

Some of our best severe episodes come from NW flow events! (Especially when it's associated with an EML).

GFS hinting at potential for a NW flow event next Monday. Very warm and humid airmass at the sfc with strong shear aloft and s/w

Thanks! wow not bad at all up there! I was definitely hoping/I guess leaning towards the CCB cranking earlier. Guessing CT didn’t get much in the way of anything?

Are there any PNS statements or snow total maps? Didn’t see anything on NWS pages.

my mistake...yeah Feb 2006...I think I said Feb 2006 in the paragraph lol. I was thinking of the December 1, 2006 severe wx event when I typed that

1. May 31, 1998 Severe Weather Outbreak - This date can actually be defined as that entire weekend (Friday, May 29 to Sunday, May 31). I was in 4th grade at the time and I was going to my sisters for the weekend who lived in Windsor Locks. I don't remember the exact timing, but we had some real nasty t'storms move through late Friday afternoon. This was a pretty decent event (though I think the worst was just southwest of SNE). IMO, this day also gets very underlooked when discussing the 5/31/98 event as it played a crucial part in the outbreak. The cold front which produced the t'storms Friday, stalled south of the region. This boundary then moved north Sunday as a warm front...and a pretty active one as it produced rain and t'storms...I think even some severe weather. Anyways...enough of the weather set-up. From watching the news and reading the newspaper, I knew there was a risk for severe weather Sunday and I was PUMPED b/c I was going to be in Windsor Locks...just b/c of the 10/3/79 event I associated Windsor Locks with a great severe spot lol. The day started off cloudy/rainy, but by mid-morning skies quickly became sunny and it got hot and humid. I think it was also the neighbors kids birthday b/c there was a party going on...the Red Sox also played the Yankees this day and scored 10 runs in the 3rd inning I think...I remember eating a banana with my two nephews and friends and we were walking up and down the street chanting, "Red Sox rule, Yankees drool". Anyways...I kept closely watching TWC and listening to the radio and the were mentioning tornadoes and I was pumped...then the watch came out. Unfortunately, since I had school the next day I had to return home to West Hartford...I was pissed b/c I wanted to stay. When I got home I didn't even have to put TWC on b/c my parents already had it on. We closely watched as the t'storms in NY started approaching CT. Finally, the storms pushed into the state and a tornado warning went out for Litchfield County and the cell was headed in our direction. My parents went into the kitchen and I heard them making preparations to get myself, two brothers, and our kitty into the basement. My two brothers were scared but I was loving it. The t'storms hit and it was NUTS...strong winds, nickel hail (first time I'd seen hail) and then...a funnel cloud (or what my dad and I swear was a funnel cloud). We were both looking out the window (towards the east) and keep it mind its like 9:30-10:00 PM and real dark...only lightning lighting up the sky. In between the two houses across the street was this incredibly low cloud that may have been rotating. I'll never forget that. Also, around this time we got a call from my sister screaming, "THERE'S A TORNADO....OH MY GOD....THERE'S A TORNADO"...Windsor Locks also doesn't have many homes with basements in them and she is freaking out b/c she had 3 kids at the time...so we told her get into either the bathroom or a closet with blankets. Turns out not a tornado but she was dead smack in the middle of the microburst. 2. December 2006 snowstorm WOW...that was wild. I think I got 14'' of snow in 3-hours; including thundersnow. Ended up with 27'' of snow...half the storm total coming in that 3-hours when the death band just sat and pivoted. By far the most snow I had ever seen...until 2013. 3. June 10, 2008 (I think it was the 10th) 20 minutes of hail...mostly pea but as big as nickle...it piled up and accumulated...never, ever seen anything like that and haven't since. The duration of the hail was unbelievable. 4. May 15, 2018 Was in Danbury on a date that day and we were just a FEW MILES from the Microbust which occurred at Candlewood Lake). Had nickle hail and just insane winds. It was so wild couldn't even hear the thunder. What was really crazy was the power went out even before the gust front got to us. 5. Blizzard of 2013 Jaw dropping snow rates and flake size...it was like a severe thunderstorm with snow...winds were pretty strong too. I think I got 27.5'' of snow or 28' which just beat out Feb 2006. The snow drifts were wild. At some point could barely even see the street from outside my window. I think snow rates were like 3-4''/hour in WeHa. But I think Steve posted getting like 5-6''/hr...those radar returns were beyond insane.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true