Toronto4

Measured just over 5” (13 cm) in downtown Toronto. It took slightly longer for the downtown core to fully switch to snow (just after 6pm last night).

Looking like a 2-4” event for the GTA at most as per latest model trends. Rain is scheduled to change to snow sometime around 6-7 pm. Besides the January 17, 2022 storm, the Nov 28, 2021 snowfall is the next best event of this winter. 4-5” of picturesque snow and temperatures remained at or just below freezing with minimal impact on roads.

Environment Canada just reissued the Weather Advisory at 11:43 am for Toronto. Latest forecast is 2” of snow today, 2-4” tonight and another 1” tomorrow.

I’m going for 4-6” for the first wave late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Highest snowfall rates will occur just after the changeover from rain to snow. The second wave late Thursday afternoon into the evening is still a big question mark. From a total miss to another 4”. Hopefully models will provide more clarity later today.

Environment Canada just issued a Special Weather Statement for the GTA and a Winter Storm Watch for areas southwest of Toronto. Preliminary forecast amounts by EC for Toronto by Friday morning is 4-8” and 8-12” for SW Ontario/Niagara.

I believe the biggest snowfall ever recorded at Pearson was 39.9 cm/16” back on Feb 25, 1965. And Environment Canada is relying more and more on volunteer observations these days to help fill the gap with the elimination of manual official weather observation stations in the last few years, such as Buttonville Airport in Markham, ON. Buttonville is currently an automated station, like downtown TO.

The automated station in downtown Toronto recorded 12 cm/5” of snow in one hour from 6 to 7 am and 24 cm/9” in 3 hours from 5 to 8 am. I was up around 6:30 am and saw how hard and fast the snow was coming down. YYZ recorded a storm total of 13.5”/34.4 cm. Though on the lower end compared to the rest of Toronto, it is not as bad as Feb 8, 2013 or Jan 2/3, 1999 where the measurements at Pearson were questionable and out of line with the rest of the GTA.

Storm total at YYZ was 13.5” (34.4 cm) 5.2 cm/2.0” late in the evening on Jan 16 29.2 cm/11.5” for Jan 17 The automated station in downtown Toronto recorded a maximum snow depth of 36 cm/14.2”.

Budget constraints at Environment Canada. A number of other stations have stopped manual readings over the last few years, including the Environment Canada headquarters at Dufferin St. and Steeles Ave. in North York (north Toronto). Nav Canada operates the first order stations (eg YYZ/Pearson Airport) and EC relies on the volunteer observation network for measurements/readings.

Manual snowfall measurements at the downtown TO station at the University of Toronto stopped after the 2016-17 winter season. The automated station at the same location is still there and it takes temperature, precipitation and snow depth readings.

It’s pouring snow here in downtown Toronto. I’d say at least 4-6” fell between 6-7 am. Looks like another 4-6” as the deformation zone pivots across the GTA.

Meteorologist Anthony Farnell of Global TV in Toronto tweeted that he measured 15” (37 cm) in east Toronto 15 minutes ago (8 am).

Fingers crossed for favourable model trends for tonight’s model runs. Should be a fascinating storm to follow. Could be one of Toronto’s biggest storms in quite a while.

I remember Environment Canada was forecasting 15-20 cm (6-8”) of snow for the Toronto area. I believe a blizzard warning was issued but we only got around 6 cm. The upcoming storm is a massive head scratcher for Toronto forecasters. Anthony Farnell just tweeted that Toronto could see anywhere between 5 to 35 cm (2 to 14”). It’s going to be a nail biter and hopefully we’ll know better once the northern stream piece is sampled.

Latest 12z GDPS gives the entire GTA snowfall, with the heavier amounts in the northern sections (5-6”) and less by Lake Ontario (3-4”).