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About JustinRP37

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Location:
    New York - Southern Westchester

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  1. Of course the city makes the sun angle a bigger problem. It is all concrete and blacktop. This is the time of year where even when it is cold a black jacket will feel much warmer because of the strengthening sun. Once you exit the solar minimum you notice it pretty quickly. Also why how in the fall it can be so much cooler in the northern burbs.
  2. You are from the future?! Do tell me what happened in March 2918. What is the planet like? Just joking I know you mean last year.
  3. Don't know what you a re disagreeing with, but I always pick snow. The point I was making was going into the winter it was like having a stacked team ready for a championship. It just goes to show you why actually playing the season matters. This one we can chalk it up to a loss and start looking at the signals for next winter when the time comes. Let's just hope that Mother Nature chooses the correct team next year for us. But hey, seems like whoever drafted for Virginia, DC, and norther NY and New England got a great team this year. As for the loyalty part, I can certainly understand being loyal to your team, but blind loyalty can sometimes allow management to get away with murder. Without getting to far off topic, Dolan isn't going to change the Knicks if he sells out every game and has the leagues most valuable team. Sometimes you can still be loyal but follow from a distance and not spend as much time on it. I'm enjoying being a new dad than watching every Rangers game this year, since they most likely won't make the playoffs. I still want them to win every game and will still pick up a game or two, but I won't go out of my way to make time for it. I don't know if the analogy is flimsy. Weather is a lot like sports teams. We make predictions about what will happen and then watch. Forecasting also takes time, effort, and intention (many times money too). Whether or not you watch sports, they too will also happen much like the weather. And judging by the drastic slow down in board postings this winter, I'd be willing to bet many people have not been paying as much attention anymore. Me? I love all weather, the more extreme the better. And as I pointed out above, you don't have to travel far to reach epic snows. Rent a car, take a train, Uber, etc. I'm still hoping to get up to Killington a few times this year, but it is hard with a wife that has a new job at a hospital and a 5 month old. The philosophizing about winter is just brutal because it hasn't worked out in our favor, but this year had a lot of potential.
  4. Yes, but I was replying to getting us to normal. I don't think this year will end up being in the bottom 10 for snowfall, but hey, stranger things have happened this year.
  5. I love this analogy. This winter was like the sports team that was undefeated for the first month of the season and then lost every game for a month and a half before winning a few games towards the end of the season. Then again there would still be diehard fans in that stadium to watch the last place team skate off the ice for the final time of the year cheering nonetheless. While I love sports, if my team is terrible (i.e. the Rangers this year), I still follow them, but definitely do not make time to watch every game. Life is short, spend it on things that can truly impact your life. For the life of me, I cannot understand how anyone cheers for the Knicks, like ever. Life is too short to watch a chronically failing team do nothing.
  6. March 2001 had 3.8 inches of snow in Central Park... That won't get us to normal. Even last year's 11.6 won't get us to normal. We would have to have a March 2015 with 18.6 inches to help us.
  7. JustinRP37

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    Temps are already right around 30-32 and upper 30s out by KJFK.
  8. JustinRP37

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    As a scientist who has worked with CRISPR I can tell you that anything modified with this technology will be labeled GMO. CRISPR allows us to edit genes etc, it is literally the definition of a GMO.
  9. JustinRP37

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Yes the earth will always recover, but what if we are one of the species that does not make it? Off topic though haha.
  10. JustinRP37

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    That isn't blaming this year on climate change. Many models though do show increasing snowfall here as the climate warms for some time. This is because we will also likely see an increase in precipitation. You cannot blame one year or one season on climate change. That is weather. Weather varies from year to year, day to day. Climate is long term averages. So if we note rapid changes over time those may be attributed to climate change.
  11. JustinRP37

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Because we know the different heat properties of different gasses. We know that methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, but we release far more CO2. We know that all the carbon we are releasing from fossil fuels has been buried in the earth for millions of years. All we are doing when we pump oil, gas, coal, etc. is bringing this stored carbon and burning it, releasing CO2 into the air. Yes, CO2 concentrations have been higher in the past; yes the climate has been warmer in the past. But typically climate change is very slow allowing plants, animals, and microbes the ability evolve. And humans most likely would not have been able to survive those periods either. Further, as a vector disease researcher, we are seeing the movement of certain diseases and their vectors that are not following human paths, but climate paths. But another huge issue that does not receive much media coverage, is the ever shrinking biodiversity on the planet, which might actually have far greater impacts in our lifetime than climate change. Humans have always been smart enough in the past to figure out problems though, so I do believe we will ultimately figure things out.
  12. Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old.
  13. Pick a point in New York City to the north then with that call. I don’t think JFK, Staten Island, or the Rockaways get 2-4. Maybe 1-2.
  14. JustinRP37

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    People just can’t slow down these days. Raging snow and ice storm? Hmm I’ll drove ten under the 70 mph limit. People forget 4x4 is great st getting you up to speed but it does nothing for slowing you down in icy conditions. I try to avoid driving in icy conditions because of the idiots.
  15. Okay lets tone the the end of the world scenarios. Tuesday was NOT a major winter storm. Yes the roads were icy and covered, but this was a storm that the plows kept up with really well. The problem was the timing. If this was overnight, and finished by 5AM, then at most you would have only seen delays in the morning. The problem was it start right at the tail end of the morning rush and continued throughout the day. Thus, closures were definitely the right call. But let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill here, it was 1 inch of snow and sleet and it was called correctly by many who said the upper limits would definitely not be reached. What made it dangerous was the icy conditions. Think back to 2013-14 and 2014-15 where Central Park recorded 57.4 and 50.3 inches of snow. Do you really think we would remember a 1 inch snowfall? No, we tend to remember the big ones. This storm will simply not be remembered.