JustinRP37

Stay healthy Anthony. One of my relatives is a first responder in a smaller midwestern city and was telling me she thinks this is all a hoax. I said just look at the NYPD and FDNY. I said if you want to come out here and help out you’d quickly see this is not a hoax. It is honestly mind boggling but after all is said and done I seriously hope they give all our medical professionals, first responders, and essential employees a parade down the Canyon of Heroes. And if I could control the weather you’d have snow on the ground from December 1st to March 15th next winter.

Be very cautious relating this to the flu at all. While I studied vector-borne diseases, some of the modeling is similar. The Iceland story is not that 25-50% are completely asymptomatic: " deCODE Genetics founder Dr Kari Stefansson told CNN that less than 1% of tests came back positive for coronavirus, adding that around 50% who tested positive said they were asymptomatic. Stefansson explained: "What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms".Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/71664/iceland-early-coronavirus-testing-50-of-cases-have-no-symptoms/index.html “What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms,” Stefánsson said. https://bgr.com/2020/04/05/coronavirus-testing-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients-can-go-undetected/ This is not similar to the flu. It has a much higher attack rate, much higher basic reproductive rate (perhaps much higher than thought because of asymptomatic cases), much longer infectious incubation time, much higher hospitalization rate, and is pretty stable on surfaces. Been going over this for awhile now and staying on top of it for my students. While we never will know 100% of the unreported cases, the models for this have honestly been pretty accurate. The main models only assumed 50% compliance with social distancing and current estimates are around 90%, hence the data has shifted downward. This does NOT mean the virus is not as bad as we previously though, but social distancing is working! I am very happy with the progress we have made, but this has truly been awful. Let's hope we get the vaccine and therapeutics soon.

I know a lot of people would love snow, but honestly, any snow would be about the last thing we need right now. Let's not hope and wish for snow. We do not need anyone wasting time plowing snow and salting walkways. Our buildings maintenance team is stressed to the max making sure door knobs, elevator buttons, mailboxes, hallways, etc are all disinfected regularly. The last thing they or anyone else needs is to have to add in 'snow removal' to their duties. The growing season has also begun across much of the subform, so we are firmly in spring mode and if ever there was a year to wish for boring weather for awhile, this is it.

No but I do remember being able to buy toilet paper on past St. Patrick’s Days and fresh meat.

In this area it is primarily the blacklegged tick. Dog ticks do not transmit Lyme. There has been one study that seemed to indicate Lyme spirochetes know sexual fluid, but that isn’t the primary mode of infection.

You are both correct. The blacklegged tick (deer tick) loves our more typical climate. The likes of which New Hampshire area saw this year. They like it cold but not overly cold with at least an inch of snowpack for a good chunk of winter. That allows them to remain in diapause and really slow their metabolism down. Flip side if you get REALLY cold with no snow cover (think negatives in Fahrenheit) and dry, they can also die off. Problem is you usually have a snow pack when the really cold air comes. It is one reason we might see the distribution we see them in. Years like this will definitely lead to lower numbers, but always remember the tick that gave you Lyme disease is the tick you did not find!

Looks like a few ski areas are throwing in the towel after today. What a garbage southern NY/New England ski season. Really feel for the local hills. Hopefully northern NY/New England can still have a decent spring.

One other thing, people keep comparing this to the flu and how the flu numbers dwarf it. I even see medics doctors saying this. The swine flu outbreak in 2009 began in April it went on to infect over 600 million but had a lower death rate. It was a pandemic and still continues to circulate today. If you compare the numbers by time since first discovery, COVID-19 is way ahead for countries infected, case numbers, and deaths.

One thing I keep seeing both on the media and social media is people talking about “well my doctor said this or my doctor said that”. Most medical doctors have no formal training in epidemiology. Most Medical doctors are also not infectious disease specialists. A general practitioner will have som familiarity with diseases of course, but not in their spread. Listen to what epidemiologists are saying along with CDC. The issue with COVID-19 is not people under 39. It is people over 70. Above 80 the death rate is over 14%. If my grandparents were alive today, that is not a risk I’d take by visiting them. That said be as clean as possible. And avoid large gatherings for now. If you have the option to work from home, take it!!

Stats people. This is for HPN. mean is 3.79. But the median would be well below that based on the clustering below 2 inches. That mean of 3.79 inches is pulled up by the extreme outliers showing insane snow amounts. This looks like white rain if we even see snow. As much as I would love to put on my snow goggles, I have to look at what the models are putting out.

We really need next winter to be a big one. Start early, end late. The local ski areas have really struggled both in attendance and financially. Big mountains up north can weather the storm so to speak, but in CT and downstate NY, this has been a tough winter for them. Know some people in the business and it is really tough on them. Summer of 2018 was above normal just about the whole summer with steam bath dew points that limited the daily highs.

It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998.

Looking like we could really see a run at 70 next week. That is truly impressive and will be the first spring break to feel like spring around here for those on break. Few years ago we spent spring break on our 'babymoon' covering San Diego, Palm Spring, Mount San Jacinto, and Phoenix. It was amazing and probably my favorite area of the country. From the beach to snow in one day? Yes please!

I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase.

Wow thanks for letting me know how you feel.