RUNNAWAYICEBERG

I think bermuda ridges can to be under modeled too. Seems like cold regions like Greenland, models tend to overdue the ridging and warm regions like the west Atlantic tend be to underdone. I have zero data to back this up though.

No matter how much better seasonal forecasting has gotten, it's still somewhat of crapshoot relatively speaking, especially before Fall has even begun. So anyone gunho or depressed at this juncture just doesn't get it.

Late 90s were pretty meh though for this area. I guesss you can grab any 3yr stretch positive or negative though. Regardless, The past 17years of storms far outweigh the previous 17 that ive been living in states. I just hope this era isnt a peak cycle but I am prepared, mentally, if it is. 80s were so brutal in NJ I thought a foot was historic. But at least as a kid a foot looked like two feet now, so its all relative I guess.

I You've been on the rat train the past several winters now, in the pre season...but then, in season, you wish the snowiest solution. It's a nice jedi mind trick played. Can't lose either way.

Id prefer not to have a northern stream dominated cold season but as long as we can buckle the flow a bit, slow roll it, it should work.

Saying most people are clueless is a bit extreme. The rest of your post is on point.

If it stays offshore like the euro then yes, that's a bad track for Tampa/St Pete with the surge getting shoved into the bay.

What happenned in the Carribean was what FL feared. But she lost a lot of steam, thankfully.

They don't and all we need to do is look back in Irma's history to see how guidance struggled to forecast cat 5 status, prior to attacking the Leeward Islands. I'd still be on edge down there... prep for the worst and hope for the best.

Nice pivot nw as she kisses Cuba. Incoming. Good luck FL.

I thought the trough was a tad progressive on WV imagery last night compared to guidance. The west shifts make sense.

It also did well with some recent big ones in the NE. But you cant compare how a piece handles your backyard snow amounts to how it can handle a tropical system in the Atlantic. Its not apples to apples here.

calm down. hr 23 gets awfully close to Cuban LF but 6z was way east so this means nada.

Right. But the difference between a swfl LF and sefl LF is significant in terms of population and business structures. The difference between 110mph in downtown MIA and 160mph is massive.

It's practically splitting 18z and 12z runs so far.