RUNNAWAYICEBERG

As long as the qpf is there when temps are cold enough. nice room.

Uninstall?

Boring summer weather is fantastic. Lets leave the excitement for the cold months.

Yea, most guidance had dxr in the .5 to .75 range and we already hit the high end with the bulk of it still to move thru.

The edge of the heavy stuff has arrived, feels like a spring cutoff....pouring.

000 FXUS61 KOKX 071210 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY && . NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Several factors, the latest trends in radar, high res models, and 06Z guidance all pointing toward the axis of heaviest rain across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern CT, That being the case, have shifted the axis north of the coast, but still forecasting 1-2 inches region-wide. Ingredients are coming together for several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall across the area this morning. An upper trough emerging from the Ohio Valley will aid the development of a frontal wave that will pass in close proximity to Long Island this morning, and then east of New England this evening. The combination of deep-layered moisture and lift will allow for moderate to heavy banded rainfall along and just north of the low track. Additionally, mesoscale bands of localized heavy rainfall are possible with several inches of rainfall and flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas. The axis of heaviest rainfall at this time appears to be shifting north of the coast, where the best frontogenetic forcing exists. This may allow for a widespread moderate to heavy showers across these areas, while stronger convective elements may be present closer to the coast due to better instability. However, the severe weather threat is low. While LCLs are low in this environment, the best low-level shear will likely be just south with the front and the instability is only marginal. The rain exits the area by early afternoon across far eastern locations, with the potential for some late afternoon/early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms across the interior due to weak instability and differential heating across the hills north and west of NYC. && .

One can only wish the gfs scores a coop like this 6 months from now.

Yea, its north. looks like the gfs with the main batch over nnj and seny.

Yea, gfs has the front pretty far north. The nam reaches the 84 corridor. It's a nowcast overnight.

gfs was way overdone already in central PA today, low confidence in its robust solutions north of 95 for tonight and tomorrow. I kind of see more of a shredded mess like the rgem depicts, although i could see a decent first round early morning for wct...but other than that, i dont see it being a complete washout like on air mets initially thought.

all downpours with not much lightning or wind. I live to see to another day.

severe stuff just to my w. cant wait to pull my pants down for this.

I enjoy the wrath of weather but I guess I draw the line at suffering or death...thats just me though, i dont live that dangerously anymore.

Imagine, a world where everyone thinks exactly the same.

Geico ftw?