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Everything posted by George001

  1. Cold blizzard is right, the temps are in the single digits nw of the coastal front over se mass.
  2. I see a 986 mb low just inside the benchmark there. Hopefully it doesn’t run inland like the storm coming tomorrow.
  3. The Canadian has a 967 mb low over Western mass, but it’s snowing se of the low, that’s amazing I’ve never seen anything like it. The airmass must be insane.
  4. I expect a late 2012-2013 look to walk in. Not 2014-2015 but a couple huge storms.
  5. Yeah I’ve accepted that it will rain on Monday, Miller As suck you were right to call it miller asshole even when the models looked decent for a couple of runs. Nice storm for the mountains though.
  6. I know that unless the Navy is right (it’s likely too far se with the low) my area is likely cooked in terms of all snow due to the all the warm air coming inland in the upper levels. However, I do still think my area can get a few inches of snow initially before the mid levels warm up. It’s interesting how some of the inland solutions are showing signs of secondary redevelopment. If that happens, I think it’s possible if not likely that the models are too warm with the surface temps, so while it wouldn’t be more snow it could lead to more sleet and freezing rain before eventually the surface warms too and it goes over to plain rain.
  7. I know it’s a long shot with the euro being so far west, but the navy looks great for anywhere NW of the cape.
  8. I agree. The next couple of weeks at least are great, Feb can be figured out later. Often times the pattern change gets delayed, and even if there is a warm spell it’s possible it only lasts like a week before the pattern goes back to a big ridge out west. It’s too early to give up on the next storm that the models are running inland never mind the rest of the winter.
  9. Could it be signaling stronger secondary low development after the initial low cuts to our west?
  10. This isn’t a great look at the moment but it’s a lot better than it looked yesterday. I see 3 lows, 1 inland low 1 to the south west and most importantly, a 996 mb low to the southeast! I don’t remember seeing that yesterday, that’s exactly what I was hoping to see, as it looks like the main low running inland is all but inevitable. In my opinion this puts even eastern areas in the game for big snows even if it does eventually change over to a mix then rain. I love seeing this, it looks like the storm is evolving into a Miller B, if we can get that southern low to strengthen faster and take over quicker, this gets really interesting. We can already see that it is snowing east of the primary in central NY. The Berkshires are way east of the main low, yet it’s still snowing. That tells me the low to the southeast is already having a major influence on the rain snow line. Whether it’s all snow, rain, or a mix, this is going to be a big storm and someone, likely NW areas and areas with elevation are going to get hammered.
  11. Yeah we need large scale changes to the evolution at h5 to avoid the rain. Still far out enough where that’s possible, but the european guidance cannot be ignored. I hate seeing the only guidance with a favorable solution being the gefs. The NNE guys are in a very good spot for this if the guidance is correct, my area not so much.
  12. I’m not a fan of what I see on the euro, it has a low way inland. If it is right about a low running inland that will make things tougher. However, due to the frigid temps before the storm this still has a lot of potential. If after initially cutting to the west, the low redevelops to the coast and turns into a Miller B, then we have something good going. Right now it’s just a Miller A and that’s not going to cut it. It wouldn’t take a ton of changes to get that low to transfer to the coast, just need the blocking to be a bit stronger.
  13. I hope you are right, If it goes over the cape that puts interior se ma in the game for big snows as well. Even on the runs with a well inland track, for areas NW of the low even just like 5-10 miles are getting hammered with big snows. Didn’t one of the storms (I forget which one) in January 2011 have a low track over that area, and the rain snow line was confined to just NW of the canal?
  14. I never met him in person but I was lurking here for years, and really enjoyed his posts. Man, I ****ing miss him.
  15. You are correct. Water pistols with loaded up with Kevin’s beer!
  16. Holy shit what a melt! I have always shit on the gfs even when it shows what I like. I’m just gonna be straight up with you, I am not gonna change my ways. If I see the potential for blizzard conditions in my area I’m going to express excitement about the potential, you are always welcome to ignore my posts if you don’t like it. If what you are saying is true, seems to me like you went from a happy young kid full of life to a bitter and grumpy old man. I am in my early 20s, but when I get older if I end up grumpy and bitter like that I hope someone puts me outta my goddamn misery. I hope to retain some of my youthful passion towards the things I enjoy as I grow older. Whether it is a blizzard or rain or whiff or whatever, even if it doesn’t pan out tracking it is part of the fun at least for me. There’s nothing wrong with liking to see the good in things, even if reality doesn’t always pan out that way. 5 days out, all options are on the table, and yes there is an elevated risk of a monster blizzard somewhere in New England due to the size of the storm so yeah I’m excited about the potential. Maybe it pans out, maybe it doesn’t. For now, I am on board and I’m going to stick to my guns.
  17. Go ahead and keep looking at the GFS, it’s full of shit. There can and will be a monster blizzard somewhere in New England with a low that powerful. Liking big blizzards doesn’t make me a goddamn infant, idk what to tell you. Also remember last December? The same storm that was modeled to cut into Wisconsin ended up at roughly this lead time ended up giving Boston a foot?
  18. I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there.
  19. It doesn’t look great right now but we don’t know that yet, it may not rain on Monday in eastern mass.
  20. We need a 100 mile shift se, is that really impossible? The storm is still 5 days out.
  21. Ok that euro run is disgusting, we need massive large scale changes to the setup. Models are struggling with the pattern due to the massive ocean storm.
  22. Maybe even if the low is se there is a way to get more precip back this way, if the trough goes negatively tilted and the low becomes massive, like March 2013. Wasn’t that low like 500 miles se of the benchmark?
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